Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...

Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.

Downgrading Micron: Cyclical patterns should prevail, even along secul...

Memory fundamentals are strong, with HBM demand rising alongside a recovery in conventional memory, while supply stays tight. We expect a series of earnings beats over the coming quarters. However, Micron trades at peak multiples, and we expect those beats to be offset by continued multiple compression, consistent with past cycles—likely resulting in muted stock performance. We therefore downgrade Micron to Neutral, with a $190 target. For now, we prefer TSMC. It offers AI exposure comparable ...

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Samsung, Memory: Samsung expects CQ3 profit to grow 158% to ~12 Tr Won ($8.5B)View: Samsung yesterday announced its 3Q operating profit is expected to grow ~32% Y/Y to 12.1 trillion won ($8.5B), marking its highest levels since 2Q22 and far exceeding consensus of ~10 trillion won. Although detailed

Daily Views on Tech Headlines

Daily Views on Tech Headlines

Wedbush Morning Call - Oct 10 2025 6:50AM

Insight Focus on Product Advancements or Fundamentals?

Higher Memory CostsNTAP historically has been somewhat less adept than its peers during periods when memory costs fluctuate.We would not expect any impact on current quarter dynamics or even potentially FQ3 economics given our belief that NTAP pulled some storage purchases forward into CQ2.However,

Vermilion Int'l Compass: Global Equity Strategy

Stick With Global Technology; China Breaking Out We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass), with Int'l Compass reports all echoing this sentiment. We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the SPX and ACWI-US are above 6028-6059 and $125-$126. Our bullish near-term outlook will remain in place as long as the 4+ month uptrend continues on ACWI...

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Samsung, NVDA: Jensen Huang reportedly confirms Samsung’s HBM3e qualView: Per News1 Korea, Jensen has personally informed Samsung that its HBM3e has passed NVIDIA’s quality qualification tests and that NVDA intends to place orders. The two companies, in turn, are now reportedly fine-tuning details

Wedbush Morning Call - Oct 09 2025 6:44AM

September Sales Review - Lifting PT to NT$1,700

Semicap and the $3tn AI bull-case: material upside, but well below the...

We published earlier this week our updated view on the Semicap rally, looking at the implication of AI spending tripling by 2030 for WFE spending. Today, we publish a follow-up looking at the implications of the $3tn AI bull case for Semicap on a single slide.

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we see limited impetus for manufacturers to shift lines to alleviate tight conditions (since there is tightness everywhere), a result that we believe will likely prolong shortages for older DRAM parts.Commercial Times, Economic Daily News

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Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral

The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...

Daily Views on Tech Headlines

Daily Views on Tech Headlines

As such, 1) we see a continued opportunity for NVDA (and other US vendors) to again sell parts into China (even assuming capabilities remain limited vs. Western product) and 2) we believe that US vendors should have a significant advantage competing in other geographies (vs. Chinese offerings) assu

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WDC, HDDs: Irving Tan says company will invest $1B in Japan over the next 5 yearsView: WDC said it would invest $1B in Japan over the next five years to help the company drive the next generation of HDD innovation.We believe WDC has a meaningful R&D presence in Japan dating back to its acquisit

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Having said this, the report also notes that while glass substrates are meant to replace silicon interposers, there is not yet a pressing “must-use” need. Net, we continue to believe glass substrates will eventually become the norm (with initial penetration starting at the high end of the market),

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