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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 3Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: 2026 capex expectations up another 1...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 29th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. We will publish sections on Telecom Equipment, Industrials, PCs, Enterprise IT, and Foundry later this week. Hyperscale revenues grew 16% YoY, with cloud services up nearly 30%. Capacity constra...

Lumentum Holdings Inc: 3 directors

Three Directors at Lumentum Holdings Inc sold 3,758 shares at between 235.452USD and 250.000USD. The significance rating of the trade was 52/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Upside Ahead for Gold and Silver; DXY Below $100.25 We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass). We will maintain our bullish intermediate-term outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6200. We have also discussed weekly since our 10/14/25 Compass how our near-term bullish outlook remains intact as long as the SPX holds above the 3-month uptrend, which coincid...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

2026 AI Infra. outlook forming: XPU spending catching up with capex, u...

It has been a busy week with Nvidia’s comments in Washington and three hyperscalers reporting last night. Building on these updates, we have already formed a very insightful perspective on how AI infrastructure deployments are shaping up for next year. Please follow the link for our insight summarized on a single slide.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

High Growth Areas Re-Emerging as Leadership We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059. Shorter-term, the SPX continues to make higher lows as high growth areas have re-emerged as leadership as the Fed starts to ease; we would need to see a break below 6450 in order to have confidence that a consolidation period has finally begun. Short-term supports on SPX include 6480-...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 2Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: 2026 capex expectations up 19%, $3-4t...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and Foundry. Hyperscale capex grew 70% YoY. Most raised 2025 guides, and confirmed sustained spending in 2026, lifting expectations....

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Great Replatforming, Part II – The General Theory. Could Jensen ju...

In a very timely manner, as Jensen just touted a $3-4tn Tech. Infra. market for 2030, we publish the second part of our “Great Replatforming” series, in which we look at how much AI investments the global economy can absorb over time. In the first part of the series, we showed how increasing capex should be analyzed as enablers of revenue growth and productivity improvements, and applied the framework to hyperscalers, showing how pushing capex intensity to new highs is easily financed by contin...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

CoreWeave profitability; DeepSeek’s ASIC try; Semicap; PC pull-forward...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 9 names we followed last week, follow the link below.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory

Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?

Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 1Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: Inference inflecting, more hints on 2...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Telecom Infrastructure, Memory, Enterprise IT, and PCs. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, and acce...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Bible 4Q24 – Hyperscale & Cloud: material capex revisions, now consist...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, driven by strong demand for both traditional & AI infrastructure. Capex grew 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, 11% above con...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Growth Leading This EOY Rally; Expect More Upside Our outlook remains bullish and we see the market in the midst of a significant end-of-year rally that we have been expecting since mid-October. We continue to expect support at the 20-day MAs on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), while support at current levels or the 50-day MA is likely on the Russell 2000 (IWM). Ultimately, we will remain bullish as long as the S&P 500 is above 5850. Market dynamics continue to improve, giving us confidence th...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

LUMENTUM HOLDINGS sees a downgrade to Slightly Negative on account of ...

The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of LUMENTUM HOLDINGS (US), active in the Computer Hardware industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 2 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered moderately risky. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date January 18, 2022, the closing price was USD...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

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