reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Long-Term Breakouts for Emerging & Frontier Markets The bullish outlook we initiated in early November 2023 remains intact. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) still refuse to close below their 20-day MAs/21-day EMAs for more than 2-3 consecutive days -- and even if/when they do, important supports are close by, including at 4983-5050 on the S&P 500 and $425-$433 on QQQ (gap supports from 2/22/24). The Fed's next move is almost guaranteed to be a cut (though when it happens is up for debate). And ...
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC.
HL HANNIBAL LEASE
WLK WESTLAKE CHEMICAL CORPORATION
TRN TRINITY INDUSTRIES INC.
OEC ORION ENGINEERED CARBONS SA
KOP KOPPERS HOLDINGS INC.
BAK BRASKEM S/A ADS
MX. METHANEX CORPORATION
EDR. ENDEAVOUR SILVER CORP.
SVM. SILVERCORP METALS
FR. FIRST MAJESTIC SILVER CORP.
FVI. FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC.
PAAS PAN AMERICAN SILVER CORP.
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
GATX GATX CORPORATION
KALU KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION
RAIL FREIGHTCAR AMERICA INC.
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
VVV VALVOLINE INC.
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
FSTR L.B. FOSTER CO.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
WPM WHEATON PRECIOUS METALS CORP
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
AWCMY ALUMINA LTD ADS
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
CDE COEUR MINING INC
PLG PULDIN LION GROUP REIT-SOFIA
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp: 2 directors
Two Directors at Wheaton Precious Metals Corp sold after exercising options/sold 101,850 shares at between 61.324CAD and 62.020CAD. The significance rating of the trade was 73/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary tra...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Celebrating the Ides of March
Wheaton’s (WPM’s) Q4/FY23 results were released after the market close on 14 March, within the context of known metals sales and almost known production. Even so, net earnings were US$2.9m (or 1.8%) better than our prior forecast for the quarter, largely as a result of achieved metals prices that were higher than average market prices. Otherwise, the quarter was characterised by accelerated levels of investment into underlying mineral streams and the announcement of a new, progressive dividend p...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Putting WPM onto GMT
On 20 February, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had produced 14,615oz (15.2%) and sold 18,618oz (19.3%) more gold than our prior expectations for Q423, and produced 326koz (7.8%) and sold 530koz (20.0%) more silver. As a result, ahead of Q423/FY23 results scheduled for 14 March, we have increased our EPS forecast for Q423 by 25.3%, to close to the top of the range of market expectations for both the quarter and the full year.
- Sid Rajeev
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Putting net cash to work
On 15 November, Wheaton Precious Metals acquired three streams from Ivanhoe’s Platreef project in South Africa, BMC Minerals’ Kudz Ze Kayah project in the Yukon and Dalradian’s Curraghinalt project in Northern Ireland. In summary, the streams allow for varying purchases of precious metals by Wheaton at varying prices and we calculate that the trio will add an initial c 26.3koz of gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) to WPM’s production profile from FY25, rising to c 35.4koz GEOs when all three are in p...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Teeing up to hit long-term targets
Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q323 profits exceeded our prior forecasts by US$4.0m (or 3.4%) at the pre-tax level and by US$4.2m (or 3.6%) at the post-tax level, driven by very strong production performances at Salobo and Constancia in particular. Production during the quarter amounted to 154,800oz gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) compared to our prior estimate of 151,919oz, as a consequence of which our FY23 production forecast remains within the company’s 600–660koz GEO guidance range, while o...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Honing Q323 numbers
Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q323 results are scheduled for 9 November. This note adjusts our forecasts – principally for Q3 – for metals prices ( 0.3% simple average for the quarter since our last note), Penasquito (returning to production from mid October, rather than end August), a new life of mine production profile at Constancia (in the aftermath of a site visit in late September) and production at Salobo, Sudbury and Voisey’s Bay (in the aftermath of Vale’s production and sales report ...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Peerless
Wheaton’s Q223 results exceeded our expectations. Production of gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) was 4.6% higher than our prior forecasts, while sales of GEOs were 6.9% higher, driving a positive variance in revenue of 6.6%, or US$16.4m. This was partially offset by costs but nevertheless resulted in a US$7.8m (or 5.4%) positive variance in earnings from operations that, to all intents and purposes, dropped through to the bottom line.
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Honing Q223 forecasts
Ahead of Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q223 results, scheduled for 10 August, we have honed our forecasts to reflect, principally (1) Newmont’s suspension of mining at Penasquito since 8 June, (2) updated metals prices, (3) estimated production from Salobo in the light of Vale’s Q223 production and sales report (released on 18 July) and (4) the closure of the Minto mine on 13 May. As a result, we have reduced our Q223 basic EPS forecast by 5 US cents per share to 28 cents per share and our FY...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Q123 in line; looking to H2
Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) net earnings for Q123 were US$2.6m (or 2.5%) better than our forecast. In general, production of precious metals was slightly higher than our expectations, but sales, costs and depletion were in line. Our forecasts for FY23 have therefore remained substantially unchanged. However, we note that the broader market appears to be reticent in incorporating higher precious metals prices into its earnings estimates.
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Setting the scene for FY24 and beyond
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) released its Q422/FY22 financial results in the context of known production and sales volumes. As a result, financial results were very close to our prior expectations for both Q422 and FY22. The main (positive) variances were in depletion (US$3.3m) and ‘other’ income (US$1.9m), to result in net earnings that were US$5.0m better than our prior forecasts for both periods (equating to a positive percentage variance of 5.1% for the quarter and 1.0% for the full year).
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Adjusting for ‘major maintenance’ at Salobo ...
On 21 February 2023, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) announced that it had produced and sold 286,985oz and 293,234oz gold, respectively, and 23,979koz and 21,570koz silver, respectively in FY22. Subject to any historical restatements in its FY22 financial results next week (possible but unlikely and very unlikely to be material), this implies that it produced and sold 66,025oz and 68,996oz gold and 5,353koz and 4,935koz silver, respectively, in Q4. In the case of gold, in particular, this was belo...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Results closely in line with prior expectati...
Wheaton Precious Metals produced 159,852 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) in Q322, of which it sold 138,824 GEOs, representing a positive variance of 2.8% and a negative variance of 0.7% relative to our prior estimates, respectively. Its adjusted net earnings were US$1.4m, or 1.6%, above our prior forecast at US$93.9m and the fourth quarterly dividend for the year was maintained at US$0.15/share. In the wake of Q3 results we have revised our forecasts for Q422 and FY22 only very fractionally.
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Honing Q322 forecasts
Wheaton’s Q322 results are scheduled for 3 November after the market closes in Toronto. Ahead of their release, we have updated our forecasts to reflect recent moves in precious metals prices, forex, Wheaton’s share price and Vale’s Q322 production report (released on 17 October), which gives an indication of possible gold production at Salobo.
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Guidance changes already anticipated
Underlying net earnings in Q222 were 4.4% above our forecasts. In general terms, Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) produced 162,569 gold equivalent ounces (GEOs) during the quarter, which was 4.0% below our prior forecast, but sold 170,371 GEOs (which was 11.6% above) as a result of a 27,412 GEO draw down in the number of ounces produced but not yet delivered. Although WPM reduced its output guidance for FY22 as a consequence of lower production at Salobo and Stillwater and the sale of its Keno Hill...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Incorporating Salobo Q222 operating results
Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM’s) Q222 results are scheduled for release after the market close in North America on 11 August. This note reduces our forecasts for Q2–Q422 and FY23–24 in light of details about Salobo’s operational performance contained in Vale’s Q2 production and sales update, released on 19 July, and of recent changes in precious metals prices. It also analyses WPM’s sale of its Keno Hill stream for a consideration of US$135m (which we calculate will provide the buyer with an int...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Starting as it means to go on
Wheaton Precious Metals (WPM) has an exceptional business model that provides it with all of the characteristics investors look for in precious metal mining companies (eg exploration blue-sky, production upside and operational gearing) with few of the commonly attendant risks (eg cost, capex, tax and regulatory regimes). Q122 results at the start of this year were closely in line with our prior forecasts, while recent mineral stream acquisitions have given it a rising production profile.
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Fine tuning forecasts ahead of Q1 results
Wheaton Precious Metals’ (WPM) Q122 results are scheduled for release on Thursday 5 May, after the market close in Toronto (approximately 22.30 London time). Ahead of their release, we have honed our estimates to reflect production and sales of silver from Penasquito (announced by Newmont on 22 April), likely gold production from Salobo, based on its copper output (announced by Vale on 19 April) and production of silver at Antamina (announced by Glencore on 28 April). We have also adjusted our f...
- Alison Turner
Wheaton Precious Metals - Russia-free exposure to precious metals
Gold and silver sales in Q421 were exactly in line with our forecasts, albeit this was expected given that Wheaton had updated the market with production and sales figures on 7 February. As a result, revenue, total cost of sales, earnings from operations, earnings before tax and net earnings (excluding a US$156.7m impairment reversal) were all within 1% of our prior expectations for the quarter.
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