Following a number of recent events, we discuss in this note what we think is the most likely outcome for the Pharma industry. We show that broad based tariffs on drugs are highly unlikely, that even if it were to happen, the impact of a 20% tariff is
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week's Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments (SPX and QQQ failure at 200-day MAs, bear flag breakdowns across major indexes targeting 5100-5200 on SPX, high yield spreads widening above 355bps, major tops on market leaders NVDA and META, semiconducto...
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- , a leading national securities law firm, is investigating potential claims against Novo Nordisk A/S (“Novo Nordisk” or the “Company”) (NYSE: NVO) and reminds investors of the March 25, 2025 deadline to seek the role of lead plaintiff in a federal securities class action that has been filed against the Company. Faruqi & Faruqi is a leading national securities law firm with offices in New York, Pennsylvania, California and Georgia. The firm has recovered hundreds of millions of dollars for investors since its founding in 1995. See . As detailed below, the complaint...
NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) invites investors and the general public to view and listen to a webcast of a conference call with investment analysts at 10:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday, April 29, 2025. The purpose of the call is to provide an update on Pfizer’s results, as reflected in the company’s First Quarter 2025 Performance Report, to be issued that morning. To view and listen to the webcast and view the Performance Report, visit our web site at . Information on accessing and registering for the webcast will be available at beginning today. Participants are advised to re...
Les déboires récents de quelques sociétés du secteur (déceptions de CagriSema de Novo, de l’anti-TIGIT de Roche ou investigations en Chine pour AZN) accompagnés de questionnements sur la politique US ont engendré un derating conduisant à une valorisation faciale attractive : PE 26e de 13.2x. Les publications annuelles des 6 large cap Pharma européennes ont été extrêmement rassurantes confirmant les attentes CT et LT du marché. Avec un BPA en croissance moyenne entre 2024 et 2028 de c10%, le PEG ...
The recent setbacks for some sector companies (disappointments over Novo Nordisk’s Cagrisema and Roche’s anti-TIGIT or the investigations in China for AZN) along with question marks over US policy have generated a derating leading to a nominally attractive valuations: P/E 2026e of 13.2x. The full-year earnings reports of the six European large cap pharma companies were extremely reassuring, confirming short- and long-term market expectations. With average expected EPS growth between 2024 and 202...
New data published recently & new analysis gives us increased confidence on the potential upside for Ocrevus HD, which consensus barely models. We show there is a strong chance that it works in RMS (at least) & it could receive new IP beyond 2029. This would add 8% to the Roche NPV on our numbers and increase our 2029-2032 sales CAGR from 1% to 3%. It would also remove the risk of a material slowdown from 2029 onwards & result in a re-rating, in our view. We believe the Phase 3 Ocrevus HD data i...
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
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