MARKET COMMENT - MOSCOW EQUITIES TO BE CLOSED ANOTHER WEEK WHILE VALUE STOCKS OUTPERFORMThe CBR has announced that equity trading will be closed another week. Possible negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are the focal point for Russia investors this week, while main themes elsewhere include resumed rotation to value stocks and above $100/bbl oil prices, all of which would be benefiting Russia in a normal market environment, but not this one.STORIES> Government allocates R1 trln to support th...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ТОРГИ В МОСКВЕ НЕ БУДУТ ПРОВОДИТЬСЯ ЕЩЕ НЕДЕЛЮ; НА ГЛОБАЛЬНОМ РЫНКЕ ОПЕРЕЖАЮЩУЮ ДИНАМИКУ ПОКАЗЫВАЮТ АКЦИИ СТОИМОСТИЦБ РФ принял решение еще неделю не возобновлять торги на МосБирже в секции фондового рынка. На текущей неделе в центре внимания будут возможные переговоры между Россией и Украиной. НОВОСТИ> Правительство выделило 1 трлн руб. на поддержку экономики> Нефтяные котировки консолидировались около минимумов прошлой недели в преддверии многочисленных событий на этой ...
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
HEADLINES: • MOL: prices, pumps, and polyol (upgraded to BUY) • TeraPlast: waiting for demand to boost margins (stays HOLD) • EME Macro/Strategy: forecasts revision guidance • Hellenic Petroleum: 4Q21 results - big beat on net income; EUR 0.4 dividend • MedLife: 4Q21 earnings miss on third-party costs and drug distribution NEGATIVE • Transgaz: 4Q21 results - better than expected on higher financial gains • Alro: 4Q21 results - better-than-expected net profit • Conpet: 4Q21 results - close ...
MARKET COMMENT - RTS PLUNGES, RUSSIA RECOGNIZES DNR AND LNR, EYES ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENTS TODAYThe RTS yesterday fell 13.2% to 1,208. Such a sharp fall had not been seen since 2008, and before that 1999. Yesterday's market collapse coincided with public discussions and the after-market announcement of the Russian government's recognition of the independence of the DNR and LNR. STORIES> RTS declines most since 2008, 1999; DNR/LNR recognition> VTB 4Q21 IFRS review: Modest end to year of ...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - СИЛЬНЕЙШЕЕ С 2008 ГОДА СНИЖЕНИЕ ИНДЕКСА РТС СВЯЗАНО С ПРИЗНАНИЕМ РОССИЕЙ НЕЗАВИСИМОСТИ ДНР И ЛНРВчера индекс РТС снизился на 13,2% до 1 208 пунктов. Это самое значительное снижение с 2008 года, а до этого рынок проседал так сильно лишь в 1999 году. Торговый оборот в анализируемых нами бумагах достиг $9,6 млрд. Вчерашний обвал на рынке связан с объявлением о признании российскими властями независимости ДНР и ЛНР. НОВОСТИ> Нефть дорожает на фоне роста напряженности в связи ...
EME Equity Market – January 2022 Market performance – Russia’s equities lost 9.3%, while Turkish and Hungarian stocks advanced 8.6% and 9.3%, respectively, in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined 4.5% in EUR terms and 5.9% in USD. Hungary’s equities were the best performers in January, adding 9.3% in EUR and 5.4% in HUF terms; followed by Turkish equities, with an 8.6% gain in EUR and an 8.8% gain in TRY. In Greece, the ASE Index added 4.9%, while the PX Index, the Czech benchmark, gained ...
We continue to track the Ivanovs' savings and spending patterns, as well as their perceptions, to get an idea of how entire sectors and individual companies are performing and might perform in the future. We also look at competition among the public retailers. The main conclusions from the most recent survey are as follows:> The fieldwork took place from November 22 to December 10, when the number of new Covid-19 cases in Russia was close to a historic high, inflation was on the rise, the ruble ...
HEADLINES: • Jumbo: discounter at a discount (stays BUY) • PKN Orlen: 4Q21 results - strong net income • Arcelik: 4Q21 results - operationally in line, bottom line beats expectations NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: 3Q FY22 - strong capacity rebound amidst difficult operating environment • CEZ: no auctions for new solar capacity NEGATIVE • US macro: Fed on track for a speedy tightening cycle • Romgaz: budget and 2021E estimates • 4iG: signs package of contracts for the acquisition of 25.12% ownership in...
LSR sold only c.613k sqm NSA in 2021 (down 26% yoy). However, in value terms, the volumes sold were stable yoy, thanks to the strong price momentum, which was also supportive for margins. During 2021, LSR delisted the GDRs, bought back part of its own stock, and started to invest in hospitality assets, hoping they would provide diversification and a stable stream of cash flow. Along with the ongoing transition to escrow accounts, all these steps drove the leverage higher. The stock is inexpensiv...
MARKET COMMENT - MARKETS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF FED; RUSSIA MORE BULLISH EARLY ONGrowth stocks have been under pressure due to rates concerns ahead of tonight's Fed decision. The RTS gained 0.7% to 1,297 for its first rise in three sessions. Oil, the ruble and pre-market indicators look bullish today. The Fed commentaries will likely guide global markets, while geopolitical news remains a key driver for Russia. STORIES> IMF downgrades 2022 GDP growth forecasts> Federal Reserve Preview: Poised for a h...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ РЫНКИ ПРОЯВЛЯЮТ ОСТОРОЖНОСТЬ, ОЖИДАЯ ИТОГОВ ЗАСЕДАНИЯ ФРС; РОССИЙСКИЙ РЫНОК УТРОМ НАСТРОЕН БОЛЕЕ ОПТИМИСТИЧНОАкции роста (growth stocks) вчера испытывали давление - рынки ждут итогов заседания ФРС и опасаются повышения ставок. Индекс РТС вчера продемонстрировал рост впервые за три сессии, поднявшись на 0,7% до 1 297 пунктов. Сегодня нефть и рубль дорожают, и утренние индикаторы для российского рынка также выглядят оптимистично. Для глобального рынка основным со...
LSR Group posted its 4Q21 and full-year 2021 trading update. Though the company missed our expectations, it exceeded its guidance. Overall, the numbers reflect the same trends we saw in the 4Q21 trading updates from other listed homebuilders - namely, strong seasonal Q-o-Q sales growth accompanied by higher selling prices, which indicates that demand for real estate remains strong despite elevated mortgage rates. > Full-year sales ahead of guidance... In 2021, new sales dropped 26% y-o-y to 613...
EME Equity Market – November 2021 Market performance – most markets down, with Czech PX Index (+3.0%) the exception. The MSCI EM Europe Index lost 8.9% in EUR terms and 10.7% in USD in November. Prague’s PX Index added 3.0% in EUR terms and 2.3% in local currency, followed by the Romanian BET Index, which declined 3.2% in both EUR and RON terms. Greece’s ASE Index declined by 3.4% in EUR terms, while Hungary’s BUX Index declined by 6.2% in EUR and 5.0% in HUF. The Russian MOEX Index declined 8.6...
Мы продолжаем изучать динамику и структуру расходов и сбережений Ивановых, а также их восприятие экономической ситуации, чтобы прогнозировать перспективы развития различных секторов российской экономики и отдельных компаний. В этом выпуске мы также анализируем конкуренцию между российскими публичными продуктовыми розничными сетями. Выводы по итогам нашего исследования изложены ниже.> Опросы для данного обзора проводились с 3 по 20 сентября, когда число инфицированных коронавирусом в России продо...
HEADLINES: • Sisecam: first past the post (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Bank Handlowy: posts solid 3Q21 bottom line POSITIVE • CEZ: 3Q21 earnings beat on power trading, small uplift in guidance POSITIVE • Allegro: 3Q21 decent, as expected NEUTRAL • Rostelecom: 3Q21 - solid, with OIBDA up 9% yoy, in line with the consensus NEUTRAL • BIM: 3Q21 a notch above expectations NEUTRAL • Richter: takeaways from the 3Q21 earnings call NEUTRAL • Romania macro: close to a government • Fondul Proprietate...
MARKET COMMENT - NEW DM RECORDS ON IMPROVED MACRO SENTIMENT; MORE CONSERVATIVE OUTLOOK TODAYUS and European indexes set new records, and cyclicals clearly led the day. The lack of material new catalysts suggests the gains were mainly driven by improved macro sentiment following Friday's US jobs numbers. The RTS climbed 0.9% to 1,865, led by TCS and metals stocks, while real estate lagged. An indecisive APAC session and slightly lower futures point to consolidation early this morning, while resul...
MARKET COMMENT - GAS STOCKS RISE, GLOBAL MARKETS FALL AHEAD OF BUSY BANKING, OIL AGENDA TODAYMajor indexes saw their sharpest declines in months as the US Senate failed to take action on the debt ceiling impasse. The MSCI ACWI fell 1.9%. Russia was a slight outperformer, its MSCI index declining only 0.7% while Russia's gas stocks were scooped up by investors on highly elevated turnover. EMEA and US futures look bullish this morning, but oil remains under pressure and other relevant indicators a...
We reinitiate our coverage of the Russian real estate sector and expand it to include PIK Group. While the long-term fundamentals are strong, the sector has entered a period of uncertainty, with rising interest rates and less government support. In this environment, we favor companies with a clear strategy, less reliance on mortgages, an attractive valuation, and predictable and high dividends. Hence, our preferred exposure to the sector is Etalon Group.> Market outlook. The housing market has e...
MARKET COMMENT - SLIGHTLY HIGHER INDICATORS AHEAD OF AGENDA FULL OF MSCI, CALLSMarkets generally rose. For instance, the S&P 500 climbed to another record high and the RTS gained 1.2% to reach 1,685, five points shy of the more than nine-year high set two weeks earlier. APAC markets are mixed today in part on weak Chinese PMI data and regulatory news, but indicators elsewhere among APAC, EMEA and US markets look better. The MSCI rebalancing, several results calls and releases, and CPI and oil in...
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