Earlier today, we published our quick take on Optimum’s 4Q results and our thoughts following the call note. The big story from today’s results and call is that management hasn’t provided guidance for 2026 EBITDA. Our EBITDA estimate is relatively unchanged, but we expect consensus EBITDA estimate to head lower and land closer to our estimate. In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We also look at Optimum’s relative valuation in comparison w...
We were looking forward to Optimum management sharing healthy guidance for 2026 EBITDA on the call but were disappointed. A lack of guidance stokes investor uncertainty. We hope more color emerges on the next earnings call (it would be even better if Dennis provided guidance at our Conference on March 26th). Management has also been reluctant to reveal accounting and cash flow details around Lightpath AI hyperscaler contracts. We see this as a missed opportunity. In this note, we discuss broadba...
Optimum’s broadband losses were higher than stale consensus estimates. Management had said at an industry conference late last year that broadband losses will be elevated in 4Q and the losses came in slightly better than we expected. Revenue was quite strong, driven mainly by higher broadband and business services revenue. Broadband ARPU growth of 2.8% was much higher than expected. EBITDA was just above consensus estimates. We expect the stock to trade up on results, but where it winds up for t...
Following weak relative performance on a host of concerns heading into its 4Q results and CMD, we believe the company successfully, but not totally, soothed the market. What were these concerns? Weak sub growth in the face of an ascendant Verizon, falling ARPU in an intensifying competitive climate, mediocre EBITDA growth as a result of both, and cautious capital returns as a result. By and large TMUS met or exceeded, in our view, on most of these issues. The one thing people did not like? The N...
T-Mobile posted 4Q results and guidance this morning ahead of their capital markets day featuring new CEO Srini Gopalan. We are sitting in the cold lobby waiting for the doors to open crunching through the numbers. TMUS is no longer guiding to subscriber growth, but rather accounts. The guidance for 900k-1MM new accounts for 2026E x 2.5 postpaid phones per account at the end of 2025 implies 2.25-2.5MM postpaid phone nets which is a bit below where the Street was thinking. This being said, TMUS h...
T CEO John Stankey recently said that “I’ve never seen federal policy this supportive of market-based investment in advanced networks.” That statement raises multiple interesting investor related questions about what does, and does not, support investment in advanced networks, including the relative importance of those policies that drive supply and those that drive demand, and how government is treating advanced networks versus networks that have lower cost structures but also involve lower pe...
A director at Verizon Communications Inc sold 9,579 shares at 44.880USD and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...
In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
AT&T announced this morning that they have closed the Lumen fiber transaction. As part of this transaction, AT&T acquires over 4MM fiber locations and more than 1MM fiber customers in major markets. AT&T also acquires Lumen’s fiber build engine which should help accelerate fiber deployment. We published two comprehensive reports when the transaction was announced.
According to an article out this morning from the FT, Verizon has contacted potential replacements for its CEO of Consumer Sampath. The news is a surprise given his 'heir apparent' status and the short duration of now-CEO Dan Schulman's existing contract. Our view is that even more change, and therefore uncertainty, in the wireless industry C-suite is not a positive for the sector. Verizon has a lot of wood to chop to make good on ambitious '26E guidance and introduce a new 'value proposition' i...
It’s all about the future. The Verizon 4Q results press release was nearly 50% above guidance for 2026E and about how much better this coming year will be than in recent years past. 4Q was objectively not great as VZ invested to win stronger than expected post-paid phone net adds and ‘transform’ the company to a customer-centric model which can sustain subscriber growth at current prices.
Verizon Delivers on 2025 Financial Guidance with Highest Quarterly Net Adds Since 2019 Strong Fourth-Quarter Results and 2026 Guidance Reflect Impact of Bold Actions and Beginning of Verizon's Turnaround Key Highlights: More than 1 million total net additions across mobility and broadband, highest reported quarterly net additions since 2019, with 616,000 postpaid phone net additionsFrontier acquisition expands fiber access to over 30 million homes and businesses, accelerating national mobility and broadband convergence strategy NEW YORK, Jan. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon Com...
Earlier today, we published our quick take on AT&T’s 4Q results and our note following the earnings call where we discussed some controversies heading into today’s results. This note focuses on the model update. Our subscriber estimate changes are modest. Revenue, EBITDA and FCF are slightly higher but within the guidance range. A full refresh reflecting the new reporting structure is forthcoming.
We shared our view of AT&T’s results this morning (note here). Results and guidance were solid. In this note following the earnings call and our multiple follow up conversations, we address key investor issues including 1) postpaid phone ARPU growth; 2) the pace of fiber deployment; 3) Internet Air net adds and ARPU growth; and 4) broadband ARPU growth. You see the trend, right? People care deeply about price and ARPU.
AT&T reported 4Q results and guidance this morning which largely met or topped expectations. Given the concerns about interior industry competitive dynamics (ok, price war fears), the fact that ARPU and net adds and ‘26 guidance are all pretty much where they should be is a healthy place to start 4Q results season.
We can’t remember a time when investors were as nervous about wireless earnings as they are going into 4Q25 results. We think this concern is by and large overblown and we will all come out feeling consoled on the other side of this earnings cycle. In this short note, we discuss the key controversies impacting the wireless sector currently and our perspective.
Verizon to report earnings January 30, 2026 NEW YORK, Jan. 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: VZ) will report fourth-quarter 2025 earnings on Friday, January 30, 2026. The company will present results and provide a business update on a webcast beginning at 8:00 a.m. Eastern Time. Access instructions and fourth-quarter 2025 materials, including Verizon’s press release and financial tables, will be available at 6:30 a.m. ET on Verizon’s Investor Relations website, . Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE, Nasdaq: VZ) powers and empowers how its millions of c...
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