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- Vikash Harlalka
OPTU: Model update post 4Q results
Earlier today, we published our quick take on Optimum’s 4Q results and our thoughts following the call note. The big story from today’s results and call is that management hasn’t provided guidance for 2026 EBITDA. Our EBITDA estimate is relatively unchanged, but we expect consensus EBITDA estimate to head lower and land closer to our estimate. In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We also look at Optimum’s relative valuation in comparison w...
- Vikash Harlalka
OPTU: Missed Opportunities
We were looking forward to Optimum management sharing healthy guidance for 2026 EBITDA on the call but were disappointed. A lack of guidance stokes investor uncertainty. We hope more color emerges on the next earnings call (it would be even better if Dennis provided guidance at our Conference on March 26th). Management has also been reluctant to reveal accounting and cash flow details around Lightpath AI hyperscaler contracts. We see this as a missed opportunity. In this note, we discuss broadba...
- Vikash Harlalka
OPTU 4Q25 Quick Take: Strong Financials
Optimum’s broadband losses were higher than stale consensus estimates. Management had said at an industry conference late last year that broadband losses will be elevated in 4Q and the losses came in slightly better than we expected. Revenue was quite strong, driven mainly by higher broadband and business services revenue. Broadband ARPU growth of 2.8% was much higher than expected. EBITDA was just above consensus estimates. We expect the stock to trade up on results, but where it winds up for t...
- Blair Levin
What Policies Matter to Telco’s Success: Supply Side or Demand Side? ...
T CEO John Stankey recently said that “I’ve never seen federal policy this supportive of market-based investment in advanced networks.” That statement raises multiple interesting investor related questions about what does, and does not, support investment in advanced networks, including the relative importance of those policies that drive supply and those that drive demand, and how government is treating advanced networks versus networks that have lower cost structures but also involve lower pe...
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Buy It Now
We believe that positive EBITDA growth and strong FCF per share growth this year mean that Charter’s stock is due for a positive revaluation. In this note, we review changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. We have also updated our target valuation for Charter. Our revised price target is $328 (+47% from the close). Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. Our broadband subscriber and total EBITDA estimates remain nearly ...
Verizon Communications Inc: 1 director
A director at Verizon Communications Inc sold 9,579 shares at 44.880USD and the significance rating of the trade was 57/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two yea...
- Blair Levin
T Threats Limited in Senate FirstNet Hearing; House Hearing This Week
In a legislative battle pitting the interests of T v. VZ and TMUS, the Senate held a hearing last week on the reauthorization of the FirstNet Authority (FNA), with the House holding another one this coming Wednesday. In this note, we analyze the first hearing as well as a draft House bill with an eye toward whether the upcoming Congressional action is likely to change the current economics of public safety communications for T, VZ, and TMUS.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
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CNX CNX RESOURCES CORPORATION
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GE GENERAL ELECTRIC CO.
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- David Barden
T Quick Hit: AT&T closes Lumen fiber transaction
AT&T announced this morning that they have closed the Lumen fiber transaction. As part of this transaction, AT&T acquires over 4MM fiber locations and more than 1MM fiber customers in major markets. AT&T also acquires Lumen’s fiber build engine which should help accelerate fiber deployment. We published two comprehensive reports when the transaction was announced.
- David Barden
VZ Quick Hit: Sampath out?
According to an article out this morning from the FT, Verizon has contacted potential replacements for its CEO of Consumer Sampath. The news is a surprise given his 'heir apparent' status and the short duration of now-CEO Dan Schulman's existing contract. Our view is that even more change, and therefore uncertainty, in the wireless industry C-suite is not a positive for the sector. Verizon has a lot of wood to chop to make good on ambitious '26E guidance and introduce a new 'value proposition' i...
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR: Not all doom & gloom after all
We shared our view of Charter’s results this morning. Subscriber and EBITDA results were better than expected. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) broadband subscriber trends; 2) price increases and broadband ARPU; 3) EBITDA growth; 4) amended MVNO agreement; and 5) Leverage.
- David Barden
Verizon 4Q25 Quick Take: Not kidding around with the ‘Dan Plan’
It’s all about the future. The Verizon 4Q results press release was nearly 50% above guidance for 2026E and about how much better this coming year will be than in recent years past. 4Q was objectively not great as VZ invested to win stronger than expected post-paid phone net adds and ‘transform’ the company to a customer-centric model which can sustain subscriber growth at current prices.
- Vikash Harlalka
CHTR 4Q25 Quick Take: Lower broadband losses; EBITDA beat
Charter’s broadband losses were better than expected. Revenue missed but EBITDA beat estimates on lower costs. We expect the stock to trade up on these results, but where it winds up for the day will depend on commentary around 1Q subscriber trends and 2026 EBITDA guide. A reassurance that Charter will grow EBITDA in 2026 would be good for the stock.
Verizon Delivers on 2025 Financial Guidance with Highest Quarterly Net...
Verizon Delivers on 2025 Financial Guidance with Highest Quarterly Net Adds Since 2019 Strong Fourth-Quarter Results and 2026 Guidance Reflect Impact of Bold Actions and Beginning of Verizon's Turnaround Key Highlights: More than 1 million total net additions across mobility and broadband, highest reported quarterly net additions since 2019, with 616,000 postpaid phone net additionsFrontier acquisition expands fiber access to over 30 million homes and businesses, accelerating national mobility and broadband convergence strategy NEW YORK, Jan. 30, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon Com...
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA: The value unlock trade? Nope. No major change in fundamentals
We shared our view of Comcast’s results this morning. Results were in line and commentary on the business fundamentals were mostly unchanged. In this note following the earnings call and our follow-up conversations, we address the following key investor issues including 1) the big picture value unlock theory; 2) the newly (apparently) amended VZ MVNO agreement; 3) broadband ARPU growth; 4) Connectivity EBITDA growth; 5) 2026 capital spend; 6) wireless net adds, and 7) 2026 FCF.
- Vikash Harlalka
CMCSA 4Q25 Quick Take: Results mostly in line; Waiting to hear what’s ...
Comcast’s results were mostly in line with estimates. Broadband losses and ARPU were in line. On the call, we would be keen to hear about subscriber trends in 1Q. We don’t expect any major changes to the stock price based on these results. What will drive the stock today is commentary on 1Q broadband trends and potential ‘value unlock’ from an NBCU spin.
- David Barden
AT&T: Only modest changes to estimates following 4Q results
Earlier today, we published our quick take on AT&T’s 4Q results and our note following the earnings call where we discussed some controversies heading into today’s results. This note focuses on the model update. Our subscriber estimate changes are modest. Revenue, EBITDA and FCF are slightly higher but within the guidance range. A full refresh reflecting the new reporting structure is forthcoming.
- David Barden
AT&T: That wasn’t such a scary start to US wireless results and guidan...
We shared our view of AT&T’s results this morning (note here). Results and guidance were solid. In this note following the earnings call and our multiple follow up conversations, we address key investor issues including 1) postpaid phone ARPU growth; 2) the pace of fiber deployment; 3) Internet Air net adds and ARPU growth; and 4) broadband ARPU growth. You see the trend, right? People care deeply about price and ARPU.
- David Barden
AT&T 4Q25 Quick Take: A reassuring start to 4Q results and initial ‘26...
AT&T reported 4Q results and guidance this morning which largely met or topped expectations. Given the concerns about interior industry competitive dynamics (ok, price war fears), the fact that ARPU and net adds and ‘26 guidance are all pretty much where they should be is a healthy place to start 4Q results season.
- David Barden
Wireless: Key controversies heading into US wireless 4Q25 results and ...
We can’t remember a time when investors were as nervous about wireless earnings as they are going into 4Q25 results. We think this concern is by and large overblown and we will all come out feeling consoled on the other side of this earnings cycle. In this short note, we discuss the key controversies impacting the wireless sector currently and our perspective.
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