reports
- Jonathan Chaplin
CHTR 1Q25 Quick Take: Net adds a little soft; EBITDA beat
Net adds missed estimates, but the miss was less severe than some might have feared following Comcast’s results. Importantly, adds in existing markets improved year-over-year. EBITDA growth was 3.5% after adjusting for a one-time benefit. This was well ahead of expectations. Estimates for EBITDA and FCF will likely increase for the year. Repurchases are back, and the Company seemed to reaffirm a leverage target of 4.25x. Repurchase estimates should increase too with higher EBITDA and FCF.
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile 1Q25 Results Review & Model Update: Adds in-line; EBITDA st...
This note covers results in detail, updates to guidance, updates to the model, and trending charts. We remain above consensus for net adds and EBITDA (and our EBITDA estimate is conservative). We continue to think T-Mobile is the best positioned in a market with rising competition given lower ARPU, higher capacity, and great momentum. Buy ($308; +19%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
T-Mobile: Quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the case for T-Mobile buying a cable asset and what we learned about the odds of this from the call, new insights into T-Mobile’s fiber strategy, what it means for Cable and Fiber assets, further thoughts on the slowdown in growth in the broadband market, important insights into what might be driving the strength in the mobile market, and how T-Mobile will approach tariffs. We will publish a separate comprehensive review of results and model update shortly.
- Jonathan Chaplin
Comcast Post-1Q25 Model Update
What’s new: In this note, we cover changes to our estimates, and comparisons with guidance and consensus. Please see separate notes reviewing results and thoughts following the earnings call. The most significant changes are higher broadband losses and lower EBITDA in 2025. We expect Consensus to increase broadband losses as well as lower EBITDA. No change to thesis. Price target is $38 (+15%).
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Quick thoughts following the call 1Q25
What’s new: in this note we cover the source of the pressure Comcast is seeing on broadband growth (market vs competition), we cover the potential causes of slower market growth, we cover the causes of competitive pressures and the impact of recent pricing changes, and we touch on implications for ARPU and EBITDA growth.
Motorola razr reboot: Iconic style, moto ai smarts — and Verizon-exclu...
Motorola razr reboot: Iconic style, moto ai smarts — and Verizon-exclusive savings Get a price-lock guarantee on any myPlan and get a motorola razr on us with any trade-in and myPlan NEW YORK, April 24, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- [The big news] The new motorola razr is coming to Verizon, and it’s smarter, sleeker and more iconic than ever. With moto ai built in, it does more of the thinking for you — organizing notes, creating playlists and helping you find info fast. Orders start May 15 in PANTONE Gibraltar Sea, PANTONE Spring Bud and PANTONE Parfait Pink — all for $16.67/month for 3...
Verizon Frontline Network Slice launches coast-to-coast
Verizon Frontline Network Slice launches coast-to-coast Dedicated 5G UW network capacity for first responders strengthens communications for public safety BASKING RIDGE, N.J., April 24, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon today announced the availability of the Network Slice in select markets nationwide, continuing to build on the company’s more than 30-year history of cutting-edge innovation in support of our nation’s first responders. The is a 5G Ultra Wideband (UW) virtual network slice completely dedicated to public safety that allows for the allocation of network resources withi...
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Blair Levin
In Good News for CMSCA, DIS (and Robocallers and Pirate Radio, Among O...
What’s New: The Fifth Circuit overturned the FCC’s 2020 and 2024 decisions to impose a $57 million fine against T for actions related to improper use customer data. Based on a recent Supreme Court decision, the appellate court ruled that the FCC actions violate T’s Seventh Amendment right to a jury trial, likely upending broader FCC enforcement efforts. In this note we analyze the impact of the Court’s decision on our coverage universe generally and well as specifically to some of the companie...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
AT&T: quick thoughts following the 1Q25 call
What’s new: in this note we cover the new share repurchase guidance for 2025, and why it fell short of our estimates; the implications of the share repurchase guidance on M&A; comments that speak to the likelihood of a Lumen fiber acquisition; the impact of tariffs on costs and capex, and potentially on mobile industry growth; the puts and takes to EBITDA, and why it wasn’t quite as good as it first seemed; and comments on FWA capacity.
- Jonathan Chaplin
- Jonathan Chaplin
CMCSA: Free Wireless Line for All Broadband Customers
What’s new: Wepublished a brief note yesterday on the rising competitive intensity in Wireless following T-Mobile’s launch of new plans. Later in the day, Comcast launched a new Wireless plan and new free-line promotions too. We cover Comcast’s new offers and the implications for the Company and the group in this brief note.
Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: Alarming surge in cy...
Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: Alarming surge in cyberattacks through third-parties BASKING RIDGE, N.J., April 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon Business today released its , which reveals a significant increase in cyberattacks. The report found that third-party involvement in breaches has doubled to 30%, and exploitation of vulnerabilities has surged by 34%, creating a concerning threat landscape for businesses globally. The report, which analyzed over 22,000 security incidents, including 12,195 confirmed data breaches, found that credential abuse (22%) and exp...
- Jan Frederik Slijkerman
- Jeroen van den Broek
- Jesse Norcross
- Nadège Tillier
- Timothy Rahill
Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: System Intrusions Be...
Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: System Intrusions Behind 80% of APAC Breaches SINGAPORE, April 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon Business today released its , sounding the alarm on a surge of system intrusions across the Asia-Pacific region. The report reveals that 4 out of 5 data breaches in the region stemmed from such attacks - up from 38% the previous year. Now in its 18th year, the report analysed more than 22,000 security incidents, including 12,195 confirmed data breaches spanning 139 countries. Malware increased from 58% last year in APAC to 83% this year, ...
Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: System Intrusion Bre...
Verizon’s 2025 Data Breach Investigations Report: System Intrusion Breaches Double in EMEA LONDON, April 23, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Verizon Business today released its , revealing a dramatic surge in global data breaches, with EMEA experiencing a significant increase in system intrusion breaches. These breaches have skyrocketed, nearly doubling to 53% of breaches in the region in just one year. The 2025 DBIR, which analysed over 22,000 security incidents, including 12,195 confirmed data breaches, found third-party involvement doubling to 30% in this year's report and a 34% surge in vul...
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