reports
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 01.06.2022
AT: IMMOFINANZ - CPI Property Group raises stake in IMMOFINANZ to 76.9% during additional acceptance period (neutral) AT: Wienerberger - Moody's affirmed Ba1 rating, outlook changed to positive from stable (neutral) PL: Bank Pekao - Increasing interest rate offer for deposits with maturity (neutral) PL: mBank - Demerger of mBank's mortgage bank arm with no share issue requirement (neutral) RU: InterRAO - Shareholders approve 2021 dividends (positive) RU: OGK-2 - Board recommends 2021...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 24.05.2022
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 30.03.2022
AT: FACC - FY 21 results in line with preliminaries, outlook wording confirmed AT: Utilities - Drought likely to affect Q1 22 hydro output (negative) AT: Wienerberger - 0.69% of the capital repurchased so far (neutral) DE: Encavis - Encavis delivers on results and guidance beat (positive) RU: Inter RAO - Not discussing delisting from the Moscow Exchange (positive) RU: RusHydro - Paying agent blocks coupon payment on RUB eurobond over British sanctions (negative) RU: Russia - Minist...
Raiffeisen Research Institutional Equity Daily 16.03.2022
AT: Andritz - Andritz received small press section rebuild order (neutral) AT: OMV - Strategy 2030 aims at moving to a more sustainable way of doing business (neutral) AT: Strabag, UNIQA - Strabag syndicate cancelled by Haselsteiner Group (neutral) PL: Bank Handlowy - DPS of PLN 5.47 to be proposed from 2021 profit (neutral) PL: mBank - No significant change in risk provisioning in 2022 expected by the CRO (neutral) RU: Inter RAO - Interfax: Inter RAO considers delisting from Moscow ...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - March 16, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - POLYMETAL TUMBLES 33% AS FTSE EXCLUSION FURTHERS RUSSIA'S ISOLATION FROM GLOBAL MARKETSMoscow equity trading remains closed by the CBR. Among the only instruments still trading, Polymetal's London listing fell 33%, while FTSE announced the exclusion of the shares from its indexes, eliminating one of the last examples of Russia being included in global markets. STORIES> Oil and gas: Not benefiting much from strong Brent, but gaining from weak ruble> Tatneft: Moderate miss in 4Q2...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 16 марта 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - АКЦИИ ПОЛИМЕТАЛЛА УПАЛИ В ЦЕНЕ НА 33% ПОСЛЕ ИСКЛЮЧЕНИЯ ИЗ ИНДЕКСОВ FTSEТорги акциями на Московской бирже по-прежнему не проводятся по решению ЦБ РФ. Бумаги Полиметалла с листингом в Лондоне - один из немногих российских инструментов, остававшийся на глобальных рынках, - упали в цене на 33% после того, как FTSE объявила об их исключении из своих индексов. Рубль торгуется около 105-110 за доллар. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть под давлением перед публикацией ежемесячного отчета МЭА...
- Evgeniy Kipnis
Detsky Mir: 4Q21 IFRS results
Detsky Mir (DSKY RX: U/R) reported its 4Q21 IFRS results, which came 3% above our conservative estimates on EBITDA. The EBITDA margin declined 3.0pp y/y in Q4 on the back of higher price investments and logistical costs, higher staff costs, as well as a less favorable product mix on y/y basis. As a result, 2021 EBITDA grew 16% y/y (11.4% margin, flat y/y), nearly in line with our estimate. The company did not provide any decision on the 2021 final dividend or guidance for 2022 and there will ...
- Andrew Keeley
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - February 28, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - NONRESIDENT SECURITY SALES FROZEN; POSSIBLE RUSSIA-UKRAINE NEGOTIATIONS IN FOCUSThe RTS finished the week with a 33% decline to 937 and valuations at levels not seen since 2008 or earlier. This morning, the CBR froze security sales for nonresidents and delayed the opening of stock trading until at least 13:00 Moscow time. Negotiations scheduled between Russia, Ukraine and Belarus are the obvious focal point for markets, as well as any other news flow on market restrictions or sa...
- Andrew Keeley
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Research Team
CIS Market Daily - 28 февраля 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ЗАПРЕТ ДЛЯ НЕРЕЗИДЕНТОВ НА ПРОДАЖУ РОССИЙСКИХ ЦЕННЫХ БУМАГ; В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ ПЕРЕГОВОРЫ МЕЖДУ УКРАИНОЙ И РОССИЕЙИндекс РТС по итогам прошлой недели упал на 33% до 937 пунктов, рыночные оценки достигли уровней, которые не наблюдались как минимум с 2008 года. Сегодня утром Банк России ввел запрет для нерезидентов на продажу российских ценных бумаг и отложил начало торгов на рынке акций до 15:00 мск. В центре внимания сейчас, конечно, переговоры между Россией и Украиной, а ...
Inter RAO Q4 21 Earnings Preview - Positive results expected, yet turb...
-EBITDA to be boosted by the same factors as in Q1-3 21: higher yoy electricity prices, exports and electricity generation -The current geopolitical environment raises questions regarding turbine localisation plans, with the topic to be possibly touched upon during the conference call -Positive market reaction still possible
Despite a better risk assessment and improving to Neutral, INTER RAO Y...
INTER RAO YEES PAO (RU), a company active in the Conventional Electricity industry, improves its market behaviour and slightly increases its general evaluation. The independent financial analyst theScreener just upgraded the stock market behaviour as defensive. At a fundamental level, theScreener confirms 1 out of 4 possible stars; the general evaluation is slightly increased to Neutral but the title remains under pressure. As of the analysis date February 22, 2022, the closing price was RUB 3.2...
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
Russian Utilities - Following Interest Rate Trend
The shares of Russian power-generating companies (gencos) dropped 12% in ruble terms in 2021, underperforming the broader market by 27 pp amid an acceleration in inflation and rise in interest rates in Russia, which dimmed the dividend outlooks and the increased capex risks. Given the depressed current share prices, most of the stocks offer attractive returns. We expect to see investors become a bit more interested in the sector during the dividend season in June-July, but we do not anticipate a...
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Maria Martynova
- Research Team
- Sergey Donskoy
CIS Market Daily - February 11, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - HIGHEST US CPI IN FOUR DECADES, NORMANDY IMPASSE SIGNAL DECLINESAlthough markets were flat to positive early in the day, the US CPI report came in higher than expected and broke a four-decade record, sending US indexes down 1.6-2.1% by the close. Russia had outperformed, the RTS climbing 0.8% to 1,547. However, the combination of global markets repricing US inflation and rates risks, and a downbeat impasse from yesterday's Normandy talks, has left major Russia indicators down 1-...
- Anton Chernyshev
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Maria Martynova
- Research Team
- Sergey Donskoy
CIS Market Daily - 11 февраля 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - В ЦЕНТРЕ ВНИМАНИЯ ВЫСОКАЯ ИНФЛЯЦИЯ В США И ГЕОПОЛИТИКАГлобальные фондовые рынки вчера росли большую часть дня, пока в США не вышли данные, которые показали, что годовая инфляция достигла нового максимума за 40 лет. На этом фоне основные американские фондовые индексы упали на 1,6-2,1%. Индекс РТС вчера вырос на 0,8% до 1 547 пунктов. НОВОСТИ> Данные по инфляции в США вызвали резкие колебания цен на нефть; рынок ждет отчета МЭА> Сокращение выручки АЛРОСА в январе с уровня г...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Konstantin Samarin
Oil and Gas - Strong 4Q21 Results Expected, 1Q22 Outlook Even Brighter
The 4Q21 earnings season is about to kick off starting with Rosneft on Friday, followed by Novatek (February 16) and Gazprom Neft (February 17) next week. Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazprom will report 4Q21 financials in March-April. We expect sector EBITDA to rise again, particularly in the gas segment amid record high European gas prices. Dividend distributions should rise across the sector as well. Based on our estimates for 4Q21, most of the companies should see their full-year financials bounce ba...
LKOH OIL COMPANY LUKOIL PJSC
SIBN NOVATEK JSC
GAZP GAZPROM NEFT PJSC
ROSN GAZPROM PJSC
NVTK ROSNEFT OIL CO.
LKODN ROSNEFT OIL CO. SPONSORED GDR REGS
OGZD NOVATEK JSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
TATNP OIL COMPANY LUKOIL PJSC SPONSORED ADR
GZPFY GAZPROM (GDR)
TATNEFT (PREF A)
GAZPROM NEFT (GDR)
- Anastasia Khakhaeva
- Andrew Keeley
- Arthur Cherkesov
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Fedor Kornachev
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Igor Vasilyev
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
Sber CIB Ivanov Consumer Confidence Tracker. January 2022 - E-Commerce...
We continue to track the Ivanovs' savings and spending patterns, as well as their perceptions, to get an idea of how entire sectors and individual companies are performing and might perform in the future. We also look at competition among the public retailers. The main conclusions from the most recent survey are as follows:> The fieldwork took place from November 22 to December 10, when the number of new Covid-19 cases in Russia was close to a historic high, inflation was on the rise, the ruble ...
AFLT AEROFLOT RUSSIAN AIRLINES
MGNT MAGNIT PJSC
PJP X5 RETAIL GROUP N.V. SPONSORED GDR REGS
MAIL MAIL.RU GROUP LTD. SPONSORED GDR
PIKK PIK GROUP
2ET ETALON GROUP (GDR)
LSRG LSR GROUP
5M71 MAGNIT PJSC SPONSORED GDR REGS
3LSA LSR GROUP (GDR)
PIK GROUP GDR
DSKY DETSKY MIR
OZON OZON HOLDINGS
FIXP FIX PRICE GROUP LTD
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Maria Martynova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
- Sergey Donskoy
- Yuri Popov
CIS Market Daily - January 26, 2022
MARKET COMMENT - MARKETS CAUTIOUS AHEAD OF FED; RUSSIA MORE BULLISH EARLY ONGrowth stocks have been under pressure due to rates concerns ahead of tonight's Fed decision. The RTS gained 0.7% to 1,297 for its first rise in three sessions. Oil, the ruble and pre-market indicators look bullish today. The Fed commentaries will likely guide global markets, while geopolitical news remains a key driver for Russia. STORIES> IMF downgrades 2022 GDP growth forecasts> Federal Reserve Preview: Poised for a h...
- Andrey Gromadin
- Anton Chernyshev
- Anton Stroutchenevski
- Artem Vinogradov
- Cole Akeson
- Dmitry Troshin
- Ekaterina Usanova
- Georgiy Ivanin
- Konstantin Samarin
- Maria Martynova
- Mikhail Krasnoperov
- Research Team
- Sergey Donskoy
- Yuri Popov
CIS Market Daily - 26 января 2022
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ГЛОБАЛЬНЫЕ РЫНКИ ПРОЯВЛЯЮТ ОСТОРОЖНОСТЬ, ОЖИДАЯ ИТОГОВ ЗАСЕДАНИЯ ФРС; РОССИЙСКИЙ РЫНОК УТРОМ НАСТРОЕН БОЛЕЕ ОПТИМИСТИЧНОАкции роста (growth stocks) вчера испытывали давление - рынки ждут итогов заседания ФРС и опасаются повышения ставок. Индекс РТС вчера продемонстрировал рост впервые за три сессии, поднявшись на 0,7% до 1 297 пунктов. Сегодня нефть и рубль дорожают, и утренние индикаторы для российского рынка также выглядят оптимистично. Для глобального рынка основным со...
- Evgeniy Kipnis
Detsky Mir: 4Q21 trading update – NEUTRAL-to-NEGATIVE
Detsky Mir (E/W; TP RUB 145/sh) reported its 4Q21 trading update. 4Q21 revenue grew 6.3% y/y, decelerating vs 3Q, as the lockdown in October and November in Russia, as well as continuing Covid-related restrictions negatively affected traffic. As a result, 2021 revenue increased 15% y/y, slightly below our and consensus estimates of 15.7% y/y growth. Overall, we see results as neutral, however, the ability to sustain the top-line growth into 2022 and beyond, as well as the required pace of pri...
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