Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
EME Equity Market – January 2026 All regions in the green in January, with the Turkish ISE the best performer. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 11.1% mom in EUR terms and 13.2% mom in USD terms in January. The Turkish ISE was the top performer (+20.8% mom), followed by the Hungarian BUX (+17.5% mom); the Romanian BET (+11.1% mom); the Greek ASE (+9.2% mom); the Polish WIG 20 (+5.9% mom); and the Czech PX (+2.4% mom; all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Titan: three deals cemented, more to come (stays BUY) • Eurocash: wins court battle with antimonopoly watchdog POSITIVE • PKO BP: 4Q25E preview (due on 12 March) • Mo-BRUK: 4Q25E – 21% yoy EBITDA growth expected (due on 23 April) • Hungary macro: MNB on hold • Hidroelectrica: shareholders’ approval for key strategic projects • DIGI Communications: hires Linklaters and Uría Menéndez for legal work in its Spanish IPO NEUTRAL • EME Strategy: MSCI – consultations under way to reclassify...
Tower revenue trends were slightly slower across the board except for Indus Towers as it benefited again from VIL’s network catch up spend. EBITDA margins were roughly stable across EM except in Indonesia which faces the near-term pressure of the XL-Smartfren consolidation. Africa continue to perform well and the LatAm Towers space had a decent Q3.
Press reports are suggesting that a Tef-Zegona deal in Spain is progressing. We wrote about that HERE. A deal will be tricky for a variety of reasons, but if Digi is a willing remedy taker and if Telefonica/ Zegona are willing to give very substantial remedies (which is a big if), then the deal might receive regulatory approval we think.
2025 was a very strong year for African Telcos, as macro stabilized and pricing recovered across the continent but especially in Nigeria. We think 2026 should be more of the same as stocks re-rate due to strength in the core coupled with exposure to digital. Very strong performance by Airtel Africa means Vodacom becomes our top pick in Africa, and VEON our top pick overall.
2025 was when the EM Telco bull market really took off. Two of our top picks returned >100% and four more 50%+. We make one change to our top picks for 2026 from 2025, introducing Megacable in exchange for IHS Towers. In a separate note out today we run through the Themes that we think will drive performance in 2026.
EM Telcos have been strong for some time, but 2025 was a banner year. Multiples have expanded somewhat, but we remain bullish, as we think EM Telcos operate on a long cycle driven by market structure which has now definitively turned up We therefore see EM Telcos in a true stealth bull market as conditions still seem ripe for the best to exhibit pricing power and hence GDP+ revenue growth and rising ROIC. This note explains the key themes we see for 2026.
2025 was a banner year for EM Telcos, following on from a good 2023 and 2024. As we head towards the New Year we thought it might be useful to highlight a few of the thematic pieces we wrote last year that we think help to highlight why EM Telcos are in a clear and sustained bull market and why therefore we are confident that 2026 will be another good year for investors in the space, as fundamentals continue to look much stronger than in the past. I hope you enjoy reading these and happy holiday...
EM & Japanese Telcos have more DC capacity than those in other regions. In this short note, we look at the current and future Data Center (DC) capacity for the telcos in our coverage as well as the potential valuation for these assets, in an attempt to contextualise this exposure.
We hosted a virtual call with Vodacom CEO, Shameel Joosub, and Head of IR, JP Davids on Monday last week. In tone and content, the call was positive in our view, and we found the discussion on price floors very encouraging. Thoughts and feedback below. Thoughts and feedback below.
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