reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) Testing Support In our 2/25/25 Compass, we discussed our expectation for near-term downside as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) displayed bearish false breakouts, (3) fell back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) violated their 1+ month uptrends, and (5) closed below their 20-day and 50-day MAs for the first time in over a month. We also said it likely means at least another 2-4 weeks of consolidation, and tha...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Nasdaq 100 Breaking Out -- Buy; Bullish Outlook Intact As discussed throughout the first half of January, and reiterated in our 2/3/25 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We also discussed our non-concern as it related to the Canada/Mexico tariff situation, calling the pullback a buying opportunity. Now, we are seeing signs that this 2+ month consolidatio...
ECH. ISHARES MSCI CHILE CAPPED INVESTABLE MARKET INDEX FUND
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
EUSC WDMTR ERP HDG EQ
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWW ISHARES MSCI MEXICO CAPPED INDEX FUND
ISHARES MSCI UAE CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Tariff Tantrum Underway; Market Dynamics Still Risk-On As discussed throughout the first half of January, we continue to believe that tariffs will mostly be used as a negotiation tactic, and much like Trump's prior presidency, will be much less impactful than feared. We anticipate the Canada/Mexico tariffs to be resolved relatively quickly, and therefore we view the latest pullback as a buying opportunity. Bottom line: market dynamics remain risk-on, and our outlook remains bullish as long as t...
EIS EISEN- UND HUETTENWERKE AG
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
FDN FIRST TRUST DOW JONES INTERNET INDEX FUND
IAI ISHARES U.S. BROKER-DEALERSETF
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
HEDJ WSDMTR EURP HDGD
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
A14Y8J ARK WEB X.0 ETF NO PAR VALUE PER SHARE
ISHARES MSCI UAE CAPPED ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Rally Continues as USD & 10-Year Treasury Yield Break We continue to believe the market remains in bear market rally mode, though the Russell 2000 (IWM) has already achieved our price target at its 200-day MA, while the S&P 500 is only 2% away from hitting its 200-day MA. We have said that this is still a bear market as long as the S&P 500 and IWM are below their 200-day MAs, but, as we discussed in our Oct. 31 ETF Pathfinder, we continue to see signs that suggest reversals could be coming. Ma...
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWY ISHARES MSCI SOUTH KOREA CAPPED INDEX FUND
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
EIRL ISHARES MSCI IRELAND CAPPED ET
EWI BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EPOL ISHARES MSCI POLAND CAPPED ETF
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
VGK VANGUARD MSCI EUROPEAN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Small-Caps, EM RS, Commodities Bullishly Inflecting We continue to have a bullish outlook and we believe the path of least resistance remains higher. Not only is there an absence of breakdowns for the major indexes and for individual Sectors, but several are now breaking out above resistance. Additionally, EM RS is bullishly inflecting, commodities are bottoming, and high yield spreads are narrowing. · Select Indexes & Sectors Breaking Out. The S&P 500 is testing 3238 resistance, whil...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
IWM ISHARES RUSSELL 2000 INDEX FUND
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
MCHI.. ISHARES MSCI CHN
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
SOXX ISHARES PHLX SEMICONDUCTOR ETF
IHI ISHARES U.S. MEDICAL DEVICES E
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
DJP BARCLAYS IPATH DJ UBS COMMODITY TR ETN
XHE SPDR S&P HEALTH CARE EQUIPMENT ETF
XHB SPDR S&P HOMEBUILDERS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
KWEB KRANESHARES CSI CHINA INTERNET FUND
EWD ISHARES MSCI SWEDEN ETF
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Add Exposure to Emerging Markets, Retail Several recent positive developments are encouraging and incrementally improve our outlook, however there are several other items on our bull market wish list that have yet to be checked off. Our outlook remains neutral. • EM, Retail Bottoming. Bullish price and RS reversals in EM (EEM) is a very positive signal for the broad market as it indicates improving risk appetites. After all, it is one of the riskiest asset classes. Bottoming price and RS in ...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWN ISHARES MSCI NETHERLANDS ETF
XLV SELECT SECTOR SPDR-HEALTH CARE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLE SELECT SECTOR SPDR-ENERGY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
EWJ ISHARES MSCI JAPAN ETF
XRT SPDR S&P RETAIL ETF
RTH MARKET VECTORS RETAIL ETF
PJP INVESCO DYNAMIC PHARMACEUTICALS ETF
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYT INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT TECHNOLOGY ETF
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
EUFN ISHARES MSCI EUROPE FINANCIALS
RYF INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT FINANCIALS ETF
EWT ISHARES MSCI TAIWAN ETF
EWGS ISHARES MSCI GERMANY SMALL-CAP
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Upgrading Staples, Downgrading Energy We are downgrading our outlook to neutral as a result of several negative developments, including breakdowns for EM (EEM) and China (MCHI, FXI), steep price and RS uptrend violations for Technology (XLK, RYT), improving RS for defensive areas of the market, weakness in “Dr.†copper, and crude oil's breakdown. • Key levels on S&P 500, U.S. dollar. Our neutral outlook is supported by a consolidating market and a number of mixed technical signals. On th...
EEM ISHARES MSCI EMERGING MARKETS ETF
EWG ISHARES MSCI GERMANY ETF
EWL ISHARES MSCI SWITZERLAND CAPPE
XLP SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER STAPLES
XLY SELECT SECTOR SPDR-CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
XLF SELECT SECTOR SPDR-FINANCIAL
XLI SELECT SECTOR SPDR-INDUSTRIAL
XLK SELECT SECTOR SPDR-TECHNOLOGY
XLRE REAL ESTATE SPDR
XLU SELECT SECTOR SPDR-UTILITIES
ENZL ISHARES MSCI NEW ZEALAND CAPPE
ERUS BLACKROCK INSTITUTIONAL TRUST COMPANY N.A.
EFA ISHARES TRUST MSCI EAFE INDEX FUND
A2AMMR PUREFUNDS ISE MOBILE PAYMENTS ETF
IGV ISHARES NORTH AMERICAN TECH-SOFTWARE ETF
ITB ISHARES U.S. HOME CONSTRUCTION
VEA VANGUARD FTSE DEVELOPED MARKETS ETF
VWO VANGUARD FTSE EMERGING MARKETS
XLC THE COMMUNICATION SERVICES SELECT SECTOR SPDR FUND
RYH INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT HEALTH CARE ETF
RTM INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT MATERIALS ETF
GREK GLOBAL X MSCI GREECE ETF
FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 FUND
RYE INVESCO S&P 500 EQUAL WEIGHT ENERGY ETF
EWA ISHARES MSCI AUSTRALIA ETF
VOX VANGUARD TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES ETFS
- Shelley Moen
Vermilion ETF Pathfinder: Actionable ETF research & Ideas
Opportunities in energy, biotechs, and international. Highlighted themes and actionable charts: • Big picture: bullish. Our bullish stance, predating last year's Presidential elections, remains intact. Short-term jitters have not reversed long-term trends, and (most) cyclical sectors continue to outperform. • Style: Rotate into small caps. The small/large-cap ratio is bullishly inflecting in favor of small caps, extending the this ratio's 11-year tradition of tactical whipsaws... see pag...
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