The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 4Q25

​​​​We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 243 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides:

Foundries: TSMC outperforming on all fronts. We see further upside. To...

Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. TSMC is dominating, with revenues reported and guided up 26/38% YoY vs. 6/12% for the rest of the industry. Capex plans signal expectations for sustained growth ahead, driven by AI.

Grasping the AI Infra Buildout & GTC takeaways

Bible 4Q25 - Hyperscale & Cloud: continued capex revisions; visibility...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 30th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. AI is increasing capital intensity and productivity. Public cloud growth is approaching 35% YoY, constrained by capacity addition. Similar comments at every step of the supply chain: compute, m...

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (XI): Can cloud revenues triple in 4 ye...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look at how rising AI infrastructure capex translates into sustained cloud revenues growth, and who will consume how much cloud services by the end of the decade.

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (X): “Internal AI” returns? lower than ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we look at what returns hyperscalers generate on AI investments today and how these could improve over time once the "tail effect" kicks in.

Grasping the AI infra buildout (IX): How does the “tail effect” boost ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we look at how the "tail effect" boosts ROIC for AI infrastructure and traditional compute deployments.

Grasping the AI Infra buildout (VIII): “Tail effect” materially boost ...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we look at what we call the tail effect: How ROIC underestimates the actual return on AI infrastructure over the full useful life of chips.

Grasping the AI infra buildout (VII): What returns to expect?

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today, we compare the returns of AI cloud and frontier-model businesses with those of traditional cloud and core hyperscalers.

Following the money: TSMC capex points to XPU revenues well above expe...

The AI buildout is accelerating in 2026, and we see it is getting difficult to track what is being deployed, by whom, for what usage, with what financing, and on what underlying business model. As GTC approaches, we address all these questions in a series of one-sliders. Today we look into the implications of TSMC capex for XPU spending over the next few years.

The Citrini report: a revival of Marxism.

The Citrini report is an interesting thought experiment. It qualifies fully as neo-marxist, calling for the tendency of profit rates to fall. Like Marx 165 years ago, the authors are nevertheless getting a couple of things wrong. Click the link below for our thoughts and our perspective on the matter.

Hyperscalers to nearly double AI capex again in 2026. Implications

All four hyperscalers have now reported. AI capex is set to nearly double for a second consecutive year. Click the link below for a single slide on the implications for XPU spending.

Anticipating the memory supply-demand balance of 2026, on a single sli...

In our Micron initiation in 2022, we introduced a unique framework to track memory supply and demand, based on COGS and PPE. In today’s one-slider, we update our view on memory supply-demand balance for 2026.

Where is the cost of HBM going ? A perspective on a single slide

We publish today a single slide on how we expect the cost and price of HBM to evolve in the next few years. Link below.

Samsung & Hynix 4Q25: Implications for memory & Micron

Samsung and Hynix reported this week. Please see the link for our take on the read-through for Micron and the broader memory market

AI in 2027; Intel’s turnaround; TSMC in 2026; Mobileye; Ericsson. Tech...

As always, during earnings season, we wrap-up what happened in the previous week. For our main takes summarized on a single slide, and a few words on each of the 4 names we over the last two weeks, follow the link below.

Reconciling TSMC guide with total AI Infra. Spending in 2030, on a sin...

TSMC raised its AI revenue growth outlook last week to mid-to-high 50% CAGR from 2024 to 2029. Click on the link for a reconciliation with our forecast for total AI Infrastructure Spending.

​​​​​​​TSMC 4Q25: Strong implied 2027 guide for AI Infra.; WFE read-ac...

TSMC 4Q25 QT: Strong implied 2027 guide for AI Infra.; WFE read-across...

TSMC reported 4Q25 this morning.

Technology infrastructure in 2026: Top picks & updated perspective - C...