reports
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semicon West: 2026 outlook? Does AI drive growth? DRAM architectures? ...
Last week we attended the 2025 edition of the Semicon West conference, the key event for investors focused on the semiconductor equipment market. Over two days we hosted more than a dozen meetings with companies across the semiconductor value chain. Here are our key takeaways.
TSFA TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD. SPONSORED ADR
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
BSI BE SEMICONDUCTOR INDUSTRIES N.V.
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
ASM ASM INTERNATIONAL N.V.
8035 TOKYO ELECTRON LTD.
KLAC KLA CORPORATION
AMD ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
AVGO ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
SOH1 ASML
BESI BROADCOM INC.
SOITEC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Downgrading Micron: Cyclical patterns should prevail, even along secul...
Memory fundamentals are strong, with HBM demand rising alongside a recovery in conventional memory, while supply stays tight. We expect a series of earnings beats over the coming quarters. However, Micron trades at peak multiples, and we expect those beats to be offset by continued multiple compression, consistent with past cycles—likely resulting in muted stock performance. We therefore downgrade Micron to Neutral, with a $190 target. For now, we prefer TSMC. It offers AI exposure comparable ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Does the Semicap rally have legs? Downgrading ASML to Neutral
The outlook for AI spending has strengthened in recent months, driving a rally in Semicap stocks. Our forecast embeds AI capex tripling by 2030, requiring ~$130bn of cumulative WFE spending, but driven by the first-order derivative of AI deployments, i.e. peak acceleration this year and peak spending next year; a trajectory in expectations already and resulting in a weak outlook beyond 2026. With near-term uncertainty, limited upside to 2026 forecasts, and valuations 2–12 turns above historic ...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
OpenAI should account for 17% of expectations for Nvidia 2027 datacent...
Total capex required to meet OpenAI’s needs could reach ~$130bn by 2027, roughly equal to what consensus forecasts, on average, for each of the top four hyperscalers over the same horizon. In this note, we estimate how much of Nvidia’s datacenter revenue expectations this represents.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible 2Q25
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 229 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides. Please follow the link below for more details.
TSLA TESLA INC
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
NOKIA NOKIA OYJ
2330 TSMC
SOI SOITEC SA
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
MBLY MOBILEYE NV
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
AVGO BROADCOM INC.
IFX INFINEON TECHNOLOGIES AG
TXG 10X GENOMICS INC CLASS A
ERIC-B ERICSSON LM-B SHS
0084207D UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC
ME 23ANDME HLDG CO
GRAB GRAB HLDGS LTD
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Foundries: Upside for TSMC; others at risk.
Today, we are publishing the Foundry section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish the last section on Enterprise IT. Driven by strong AI demand, TSMC increased its 2025 growth outlook to 30% (from 25%). This still leaves room for upside, as it implies...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
XPUs: Sizing the upside for Broadcom and the downside for Nvidia
Broadcom disclosed last week a $10bn AI rack order for 2H26 (widely linked to OpenAI) and signaled growth in their AI division could accelerate further in 2027. In this note, we break down what this could mean for the ASIC vs. GPU battle and the future structure of the AI compute market, looking in particular at the addressable market of in-house ASICs.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: 2026 capex expectations up 19%, $3-4t...
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Enterprise IT and Foundry. Hyperscale capex grew 70% YoY. Most raised 2025 guides, and confirmed sustained spending in 2026, lifting expectations....
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
The Great Replatforming, Part II – The General Theory. Could Jensen ju...
In a very timely manner, as Jensen just touted a $3-4tn Tech. Infra. market for 2030, we publish the second part of our “Great Replatforming” series, in which we look at how much AI investments the global economy can absorb over time. In the first part of the series, we showed how increasing capex should be analyzed as enablers of revenue growth and productivity improvements, and applied the framework to hyperscalers, showing how pushing capex intensity to new highs is easily financed by contin...
ANET ARISTA NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
MRVL MARVELL TECHNOLOGY GROUP LTD.
CSCO CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
5930 SAMSUNG ELECTRONICS CO LTD
JNPR JUNIPER NETWORKS INC.
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
660 SK HYNIX INC
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Bible 2Q25 – Memory: margins of conventional DRAM to expand as HBM gro...
Today, we are publishing the Memory section of our 28th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Automotive, Hyperscale & Cloud, Telecom Equipment, PCs, Enterprise IT, Foundry and Semicap Equipment. DRAM COGS up 25% YoY and 21% QoQ, driven by seasonality,...
- Pierre FerraguÊ
TSLA TESLA INC
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
COHR COHERENT INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
2330 TSMC
00992 LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
3661 ALCHIP TECHNOLOGIES INC.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
CSCO ASML HOLDING N.V.
ASML CISCO SYSTEMS INC.
40978Z ASML HOLDING NV
2357 TT HUAWEI TECHNOLOGIES CO
ASUSTEK COMPUTER
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Rolf Bulk
- Pierre FerraguÊ
Semi cycle update. Much ado about nothing: Tariff and DeepSeek effects...
We publish today our quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis and give our views on how investors should be positioned for the rest of the year. For details, please follow the link below.
- Pierre FerraguÊ
- Pelham Smithers
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