The long awaited SFR deal has been provisionally agreed, with the Consortium upping their offer from €17bn to €20.35bn. A big bump – at this stage its unclear what the justification is for the increase. The consortium have been granted exclusive negotiations until May 15. In this report we look at the offer, and what it means for Drahi, lenders, Orange, Bouygues and Iliad, and the wider sector too.
There have been more press articles on French M&A in the past few days, HERE and HERE. So far, the content tallies with feedback we received from our recent meeting with Bouygues management, HERE: no deal yet, but a deal is still more likely than not.
Orange presented its vision for the next 3 years in Paris today. We attended, and give our initial thoughts in this short piece. In summary, we are Buyers of Orange, and heard enough to stay long-term positive on the name (even ex M&A). The cash story we wrote about at the time of the MasOrange (MO) buy-in (HERE) is coming through.
While we do not deny the uncertainties and risks associated with artificial intelligence (pricing pressures, organisational change, etc.), we remain constructive on this issue, given the significant volume opportunities in prospect for the sector with the integration of agentic AI. Moreover, improving growth momentum in 2026 should reduce pressure on sector valuations (discount >30% vs Stoxx 600 vs a premium of 10% four years ago). On this basis, we have upgraded Bechtle (Outperform vs Neutral),...
Sans nier les incertitudes et risques liés à l’IA (pressions tarifaires, changements organisationnels, etc.), nous restons constructifs sur cette thématique tant les opportunités de volumes autour de l’intégration de l’IA agentique sont importantes pour le secteur. D’autant plus que l’amélioration de la dynamique de croissance en 2026 devrait permettre de réduire la pression sur les valorisations du secteur (décote >30% vs Stoxx 600 contre une prime de 10% il y a 4 ans). Dans ce contexte, nous r...
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