This morning Amazon Web Services (AWS) announced a multi-year partnership to run OpenAI’s core AI workloads starting immediately. Our Take: Positive for AWS and our Top Pick AMZN, and we see several important implications: 1. This deal is well above our expectations for AWS’s share of OpenAI workloads 2. No mention of Trainium but that could come with Trainium3 3. This is likely the biggest piece of the “unannounced deals” in October 4. Increased likelihood of a commerce integration between AMZ...
                                                                                
                                                                                What’s New: In this first take following tonight’s results, we focus on: 1. Addressing the AWS bear points one-by-one 2. AWS accelerates to +20% growth, backlog to $200B not counting October deals 3. 2025 capex guidance raised and at least one or more GW of capacity in 4Q 4. Project Rainier proves out Trainium2 before Trainium3 broadens the customer base 5. “Not constrained in any way” buying NVDA 6. Improved Amazon DSP capabilities supporting strong advertising growth 7. Agentic shopping will ...
                                                                                Figure 1. 3Q25 ResultsSource: Company reports, Wedbush estimates, FactSet consensusGuidance notes: 3Q total revenue guidance of $174B to $179.5B; 3Q operating income guidance of $15.5B to $20.5B.Total revenue grew +13.4% Y/Y to $180.2B, outpacing St. estimates by ~140bps, while operating income of
                                                                                It has been a busy week with Nvidia’s comments in Washington and three hyperscalers reporting last night. Building on these updates, we have already formed a very insightful perspective on how AI infrastructure deployments are shaping up for next year. Please follow the link for our insight summarized on a single slide.
                                                                                The New York Post just ran a story headlined “Trump Admin Favors Paramount Skydance in Race to Buy Warner Bros. Discovery.” That conclusion is no surprise; it confirms our previous published analysis. It also, however, lays out new information about the Trump approach to reviewing deals, particularly involving media. In this note we analyze what the article signifies, including how it is an effort to lower bidding tension that will result in a “Trump Transaction Tax” on WBD shareholders, and h...
    
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