The Stargate announcement – The $500bn datacenter, was the opportunity for us to bring together a number of analyses we have carried out in recent weeks, to understand how the economics of AI Infrastructure will shape up over time. We bring together, in the piece we publish today, an initial perspective, which might be groundbreaking. This work will help us understand how the AI landscape will shape up in the next 2-3 years, expect more from us on that topic in coming weeks and months.
TSMC revealed last week they expect $80bn of AI compute revenues in 2029, up from $12bn in 2024. This represents 45% p.a. growth over 5 years. In this note we put this into perspective, integrating the guidance with all the moving parts of the ramp of AI infrastructure: mix shift between GPU and ASICs, gross margin compression, change in content mix between HBM, logic and packaging, etc. This leverages the expertise we have developed on all these fronts over the last couple of years, and allows...
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