EME Equity Market – April 2024 Market performance – green across all geographies, with Turkey outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index was up 5.3% mom in EUR terms and 4.2% mom in USD in April; while the Turkish ISE30 saw the strongest performance, adding 11.6% mom; followed by the Hungarian BUX (+5.0% mom); the Czech PX (+2.8% mom); the Greek ASE (+1.8% mom), the Polish WIG20 (+1.2% mom) and the Romanian BET (+0.1% mom) (all in EUR terms).
HEADLINES: • Lamda: 4Q23 results - significant step-up in Ellinikon revenues, revaluation gain on existing malls • Electrica: proposed changes to the regulatory framework • Bank Pekao: AGM chooses new Supervisory Board members, approves PLN 19.2 DPS • 11 bit studios: release date of INDIKA moved to 2 May • Nuclearelectrica: shareholders abstain from voting on the items from yesterday’s GMS • EMEA airlines: 1Q24 traffic - a good start to the year • Budimex: 1Q24E flat yoy - profitability improvem...
EME Equity Market – March 2024 Market performance – mixed performances in March, with the Romanian BET outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index declined by 0.3% mom in EUR terms and 0.4% mom in USD in March. The Romanian BET reported the strongest performance, adding 7.1% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Czech PX and the Polish WIG20 (+4.1% and 1.0% mom, in EUR terms, respectively). Greece saw a relatively muted performance (-0.2% mom in EUR terms), while Hungary (-1.1% mom in EUR terms) and Tür...
HEADLINES: • InPost: 4Q23 strong, as expected; neutral FY24E guidance; volume acceleration in 1Q24 NEUTRAL • Asseco Poland: 4Q23 review – net profit up 10% yoy, in line with preliminaries; strong 2024 backlog recorded POSITIVE • Echo Investment: 4Q23 – residential good, offices bad NEUTRAL • Athens Exchange Group: 4Q23 results NEUTRAL • LPP: key takeaways from the conference call on the exit from Russia, 2.0 POSITIVE • Kruk: 2023 net profit DPS proposal of PLN 18, in line with our expectations N...
HEADLINES: • Ten Square Games: 4Q23 adjusted EBITDA 8% above our forecast, but trading update disappoints NEUTRAL • Wirtualna Polska: 4Q23 results review – adjusted EBITDA up 3% yoy, in line with the consensus POSITIVE • Colt CZ Group SE: weak 4Q23 results, but bullish FY24E guidance NEGATIVE • Fondul Proprietatea: proposes RON 0.06 DPS (11.8% dividend yield) POSITIVE • PKO BP: new acting CEO and two new board members appointed; more to come; but CRO Mazur stays • CEZ: starts divestment of Polis...
HEADLINES: • Air Astana Group: a cash-accretive airline from the heart of Eurasia (BUY - initiation of coverage) • Elm: still a digital champion (stays HOLD) • PZU: reports solid 4Q23; high DPS potential POSITIVE • CEZ: misses on 4Q23 net profit, tepid 2024E guidance NEGATIVE • Benefit Systems: strong 4Q23 beats expectations, but company trims 2024E guidance for card additions abroad NEUTRAL • Teknosa: mixed results in 4Q23 NEGATIVE • CA Immo: 4Q23 – all about the disposals POSITIVE • Brisa: 4Q2...
HEADLINES: • Electrica: takeaways from the FY23 earnings call NEGATIVE • Elm: 4Q23 conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • OTE: planning to spin off its mobile infrastructure POSITIVE • OMV: acquires retail sites in Austria and Slovakia NEUTRAL • InPost: 4Q23E preview – adjusted EBITDA growth of 41% yoy expected (due on 28 March)
HEADLINES: • PKO BP: posts solid 4Q23/2023 results NEUTRAL • Poland macro: NBP on hold, with a cautious bias • CTP: 4Q23 – yet another quarter with a strong, positive revaluation gain POSITIVE • Jeronimo Martins: 4Q23 in line with expectations; FY24E guidance for possibly deeper margins erosion NEGATIVE • Electrica: rather disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE • Electrica: proposes RON 0.1178 DPS and looking to issue green bonds NEUTRAL • PGE: weaker qoq EBITDA in 4Q23, but expected NEUTRAL • Data...
HEADLINES: • Pegasus Airlines: 4Q23 – decent end to another very good year NEUTRAL • Ford Otosan: strong set of results in 4Q23 POSITIVE • ONE United Properties: FY23 – ramping up, with almost 1k units sold in 2023 • Alkaloid: 4Q23 – reaping the benefits of recent investments • Alkaloid: rating and price target changes • European oil and gas monthly: February 2024 – return of the crack • Transgaz: takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call POSITIVE • Auto Partner: February sales growth accelerates...
EME Equity Market – February 2024 Market performance – a positive February, with the Polish WIG20 outperforming. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 3.7% mom in USD in February. The Polish WIG20 saw the strongest performance, adding 6.4% mom in EUR terms, followed by the Greek ASE (+4.2% mom), the Turkish ISE30 (+4.0% mom) and the Romanian BET (+2.6% mom) (all in EUR terms). There was a relatively muted performance in Hungary (+0.6% mom in EUR terms) and a decline in the Cze...
HEADLINES • Erste Bank: 4Q23 results • AmRest: 4Q23 EBITDA in line, but earnings affected by EUR 29m goodwill write-down for Sushi Shop NEGATIVE • Text: 3Q23-24 (calendar 4Q23) results – EBITDA down 4% yoy, 10% above the consensus POSITIVE • Electrica: 4Q23 results in line with expectations NEGATIVE • Purcari Wineries: 4Q23 results and 2024E outlook in line with expectations POSITIVE • Aquila Part Prod Com: earnings beat, on lower credit losses, interest income and tax rate POSITIVE • Nuclearel...
HEADLINES: • Polish Auto Parts Distribution: sound recurrent growth prospects (Auto Partner downgraded to HOLD; Inter Cars stays BUY) • Kruk: 4Q23/2023 results – solid, but in line NEUTRAL • Alior Bank: books solid 2023, issues positive guidance on 2024E COR, and pays dividend one year earlier than expected POSITIVE • Romgaz: FY23 net profit 12% above profit reported with 2024E budget POSITIVE • Transelectrica: FY23 net result slightly below preliminary reported with 2024 budget NEUTRAL • KazMun...
HEADLINES: • Budimex: 4Q23 preliminary results in line with the January guidance, strong gross margin of 14.4% NEUTRAL • VIGO Photonics: HyperPIC selected for PLN 453.6m co-financing under the European Funds for a Modern Economy 2021-2027 POSITIVE • Polish banks: PLN 1,563m of sector contributions to resolution fund in 2024E, guarantee fund contributions still suspended • PZU: most of the Management Board dismissed, but CFO stays • OMV Petrom: signs financing agreement through recovery plan for ...
HEADLINES: • KazMunayGas: energy without the obstructions (BUY - transfer of coverage) • MOL: 4Q23 results – net income well above expectations POSITIVE • Solutions by STC: 4Q23 financial results review – miss on profitability estimates, but in line with 2023 guidance NEUTRAL • Orange Polska: key takeaways from the 4Q23 earnings call NEUTRAL • Hidroelectrica: price caps to remain in place until 31 March 2025 NEUTRAL • Jeronimo Martins: another step from Biedronka on the way to ecommerce • El...
HEADLINES: • Orange Polska: 4Q23 results – EBITDAaL up 2% yoy, in line with the consensus NEGATIVE • Piraeus Bank: 4Q23 highlights and 2024-26E guidance • Poland macro: 2023 ends with near stagnant growth • Hungary macro: underwhelming 2023, but constructive signs for the new year • Romania macro: GDP to accelerate further, after a good 2023 • Czech Republic macro: GDP ends 2023 on a soft note • CEZ: committee recommends dropping Lex CEZ 2.0 NEUTRAL • Electrica: 4Q23 operational review shows s...
EME Equity Market – January 2024 Market performance – Turkey off to the races in January. The MSCI EM Europe Index added 4.2% mom in EUR terms and 2.2% mom in USD in the first month of the year. There was a V-shape recovery in the Turkish ISE30, with the index adding 12.6% mom in EUR terms. The Greek ASE and Hungarian BUX indices also reported strong performances, adding 5.7% and 5.3% mom, respectively, in EUR terms. The Czech PX Index advanced by 2.2% mom, while the Romanian BET 0.9% mom in EUR...
HEADLINES: EME Macro/Strategy: macro all-in-one (22-28 January) Hidroelectrica: 2023 preliminary net profit and 2024E budget close to estimates POSITIVE Transelectrica: 2023 preliminary numbers in line, but zero dividend and a disappointing 2024E budget NEGATIVE CEZ: small boost for nuclear fleet capacity NEUTRAL PGE: to book PLN 8.5bn impairment in 4Q23E NEUTRAL
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