The independent financial analyst theScreener just slightly lowered the general evaluation of SURGUTNEFTEGAZ PAO (RU), active in the Integrated Oil & Gas industry. The title has lost a star(s) at the fundamental level and now shows 3 out of 4 stars. Its exposure to market risk remains nonetheless the same and can be still described as defensive. theScreener slightly downgrades the general evaluation to Slightly Positive for the title on account of the lost star(s). As of the analysis date Januar...
Мы прекращаем аналитичеÑкое оÑвещение обыкновенных и привилегированных акций Сургутнефтегаза ввиду неопределенноÑти отноÑительно будущего раÑпорÑÐ¶ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¿Ð°Ð½Ð¸ÐµÐ¹ накопленными денежными ÑредÑтвами. Финальные оценки, предÑтавленные в данном обзоре, приводÑÑ‚ÑÑ Ñ‚Ð¾Ð»ÑŒÐºÐ¾ Ð...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIA NEARLY ATOP EMS AS SAUDI ATTACK SEES OIL SURGEThe RTS climbed 2.0% yesterday to 1,396, versus a flat day for the MSCI EM and a weak performance (-1.2%) for the MSCI Europe. Oil and gas companies were easily in the lead. APAC markets continue to struggle this morning, but we expect Russia not to follow given the different relationship with oil prices.STORIES> Industrial production expands 2.6% y-o-y in 8m19> Fed set to cut at least twice, completing mid-cycle adjustment> R...
In this report, we focus on the competitive edge of Russian gas suppliers. European spot prices have plunged close to coal heating parity, which has temporarily rendered even Russian regulated gas sales a premium market. Meanwhile, LNG supply from the US, with a much reduced cost base, is set to increase in 2019-21. However, both Gazprom and Novatek have the ability to easily outcompete US LNG, as they have cash breakeven costs below $3/MMBtu, or a discount of $2/MMBtu to rising US LNG supply ca...
MARKET COMMENT - STRONG SURGUT, WEAK US DATA, TOPSY-TURVY BREXIT AND RISING APACThe RTS trimmed back 0.4% to 1,303, a better result than the MSCI EM's 1.1% decline. An unexpectedly weak US ISM manufacturing index that showed a contraction reignited fears of a global economic slowdown but spurred hopes for dovish moves to come from the Fed. APAC markets are mostly gaining this morning.STORIES> CBR preview: Third straight cut likely, but a pause may ensue> Surgutneftegaz: $50 bln cash question, up...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ÐКЦИИ СУРГУТÐЕФТЕГÐЗРРЕЗКО ПОДОРОЖÐЛИ, Ð’ СШРВЫШЛРСЛÐБÐЯ СТÐТИСТИКÐ, СИТУÐЦИЯ С BREXIT ОСТÐЕТСЯ ÐЕЯСÐОЙ, РЫÐКИ ÐТРРÐÐ¡Ð¢Ð£Ð¢Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ отÑтупил на 0,4% до 1 303 пунктов, MSCI EM потерÑл 1,1%. Ðеожиданно Ñлабый Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ ISM зафикÑировал Ñокращение деловой активноÑти ...
> Объем денежных ÑредÑтв, аккумулированных Сургутнефтегазом (денежные ÑредÑтва и депозиты) превыÑил $50 млрд, доÑтигнув $51,5 млрд по ÑоÑтоÑнию на конец 1П19. Ðа наш взглÑд, чиÑтую денежную позицию такого размера Ñложно игнорировать.
MARKET COMMENT - FED, US SENATE DELIBERATIONS, AND A HEAVY COMPANY AND MACRO CALENDARGlobal markets were mostly in negative territory yesterday, the RTS slipping 0.1% to 1,353 and the MSCI ACWI falling 0.4%, with US/China woes and possibly pre-positioning for tonight's Fed decision among the main stories. Brent has gained more than 3% since Monday night, with a large drop in API inventories (6.0 mln bbl) among the drivers. APAC markets look weak this morning, taking their lead from the soft US s...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - Ð’ ЦЕÐТРЕ Ð’ÐИМÐÐИЯ ФЕДРЕЗЕРВ, СЕÐÐТ СШÐ, РТÐКЖЕ МÐКРОСТÐТИСТИКРИ КОРПОРÐТИВÐЫЕ ÐОВОСТИГлобальные рынки вчера в оÑновном отÑтупали. Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ ÑнизилÑÑ Ð½Ð° 0,1% до 1 353 пунктов, MSCI ACWI - на 0,4%. Давление на рынок оказали опаÑениÑ, ÑвÑзанные Ñ Ñ‚Ð¾Ñ€Ð³Ð¾Ð²Ñ‹Ð¼Ð¸ переÐ...
MARKET COMMENT - NEW US TARIFF THREAT AGAINST CHINA SENDS MARKETS TUMBLING THIS MORNINGGlobal markets moved little over the first few days of Russia's May holidays, the MSCI EM slipping less than 0.1% since our last comment on Tuesday and the RDX down 0.1%. APAC markets are down sharply this morning after Trump unexpectedly announced he is considering new, even more widespread tariffs against Chinese imports. Futures and commodity prices suggest the dour market move will spread to the European s...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - УГРОЗРВВЕДЕÐИЯ Ð’ СШРÐОВЫХ ПОШЛИРÐРКИТÐЙСКИЙ ИМПОРТ СПРОВОЦИРОВÐЛРРЕЗКОЕ ПÐДЕÐИЕ РЫÐКОВ СЕГОДÐЯ УТРОМЗа Ð²Ñ€ÐµÐ¼Ñ Ð¿ÐµÑ€Ð²Ð¾Ð¼Ð°Ð¹Ñких каникул в РоÑÑии ощутимых изменений на глобальных рынках не произошло: поÑле выхода нашего поÑледнего ÐºÐ¾Ð¼Ð¼ÐµÐ½Ñ‚Ð°Ñ€Ð¸Ñ Ð¿Ð¾ Ñ€Ñ...
Novatek and Rosneft are set to kick off 1Q19 earnings season in the Russian oil and gas sector. We expect slightly stronger FCF generation for Rosneft and positive one-offs for Novatek. Despite weaker headline oil prices, upstream profitability should be stronger as export duties fell more than the crude price did (the so-called lag effect), with the export crude oil price less base taxes increasing by 13% Q-o-Q. In addition, the cost base was seasonally lower. In the oil sector in particular, F...
MARKET COMMENT - STRONG YTD GAINS, SKRIPAL NEWS, UKRAINE, VENEZUELA, BREXIT AND MOREEMs closed out the quarter on a positive note, the MSCI EM gaining 1.2% on Friday. DMs were also positive, their benchmark rising 0.6%. The RTS fell 0.8%, after a 1.4% drop shortly following a report from Bloomberg claiming that Skripal-related sanctions are imminent. A busy week ahead includes results of the Ukrainian and Turkish weekend elections, and ongoing developments in Venezuela, the Brexit process and US...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ХОРОШÐЯ ДИÐÐМИКРРОССИЙСКОГО РЫÐКРС ÐÐЧÐЛРГОДÐ; ТЕМЫ ДÐЯ - ДЕЛО СКРИПÐЛЕЙ, УКРÐИÐÐ, ВЕÐЕСУÐЛÐ, BREXITÐ’ пÑтницу Ð¸Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ MSCI EM прибавил 1,2%. Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ MSCI World поднÑлÑÑ Ð½Ð° 0,6%. Ð˜Ð½Ð´ÐµÐºÑ Ð Ð¢Ð¡ поÑле ÑÐ¾Ð¾Ð±Ñ‰ÐµÐ½Ð¸Ñ Bloomberg о грÑдущих ÑанкциÑÑ… по делу Скрипалей упал на 1,4%, по итоÐ...
MARKET COMMENT - MTS SLUMPS ON FRIDAY; MSCI, SANCTIONS, US/CHINA, BREXIT ON AGENDARussia slightly outperformed on a globally flattish Friday, except for a more than 8% decline in the MTS ADR. US/China news flow was mixed over the weekend and will likely remain a major topic for global markets today. Other items on this week's agenda include MSCI's rebalancing, a US hearing on sanctions and the threat of another government shutdown, another Brexit plan for the UK Parliament, and more that we deta...
Russia's oil sector is in the midst of another - supposedly final - tax maneuver. The export duty is gradually being phased out, while excess profit taxation (EPT) is on the way in. Getting one's head around the complicated and oft-changing taxation of Russia's oil sector can be a daunting task, but understanding the intricacies can improve visibility on the sector's cash flows. Despite the oil price correction in 2H18 and ongoing changes to taxation, we believe the financial outlook for the oil...
MARKET COMMENT - POSITIVE ASIAN AND BREXIT NEWS FLOW WHILE OIL SLUMPSThe MSCI EM and World (DM) climbed 2.1% and 1.3%, respectively. The MSCI Russia's 2.6% gain placed the market in the top quintile of EMs. Oil slumped more than 2% overnight amid signs of at least temporarily reviving supply and inventories. Progress on UK and EU Brexit negotiations and decent if not inspiring Chinese and Japanese PMIs support sentiment this morning, while the BoE decision, political discussions and results from...
КОММЕÐТÐРИЙ И ПРОГÐОЗ - ÐОВОСТИ ИЗ ÐЗИИ И СООБЩЕÐИЯ О BREXIT ПОЗИТИВÐЫ, ОДÐÐКО ЦЕÐЫ ÐÐ ÐЕФТЬ УПÐЛИИндекÑÑ‹ MSCI EM и MSCI World (индикатор развитых рынков) выроÑли ÑоответÑтвенно на 2,1% и 1,3%. Ð‘Ð»Ð°Ð³Ð¾Ð´Ð°Ñ€Ñ Ñ€Ð¾Ñту MSCI Russia на 2,6% РоÑÑÐ¸Ñ Ð¾Ð¿ÐµÑ€ÐµÐ´Ð¸Ð»Ð° 80% развивающихÑÑ Ñ€Ñ‹Ð½ÐºÐ¾Ð². Ðефть за ночь подешевела б...
Сургутнефтегаз предÑтавил отчетноÑть по РСБУ за 2К18. ЧиÑÑ‚Ð°Ñ Ð¿Ñ€Ð¸Ð±Ñ‹Ð»ÑŒ ÑоÑтавила 309 млрд. руб. ($5,0 млрд.), объем денежных ÑредÑтв и депозитов на конец периода доÑтиг $40,6 млрд.
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