reports
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 Testing Prior 2022 Highs Since late-February (2/25/25 Compass) we expected an 8-10% pullback to provide a buying opportunity. But that all changed in last week's Compass (4/1/25), when we downgraded our outlook to bearish/cautious, citing several concerning developments (SPX and QQQ failure at 200-day MAs, bear flag breakdowns across major indexes targeting 5100-5200 on SPX, high yield spreads widening above 355bps, major tops on market leaders NVDA and META, semiconducto...
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
US Tariffs - Transfer Pricing Could Negate Impact (6pgs)
We show that Big Pharma would not have to shift a single element of supply chain to the US and can mitigate most, if not all, of a 20% tariff on drugs, just by changing their transfer pricing strategy. In a scenario where the US corporation tax rate falls to 15% but tariffs are 20%, we show that Big Pharma profits would be unchanged, while the US government tax take would more than double. The losers would be low tax jurisdictions like Ireland, but they would get to keep their manufacturing base...
- Stefano Toffano
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SZG SALZGITTER AG
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OR L'OREAL SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
RWE RWE AG
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
LPP LPP S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SAP SAP SE
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Team Pharma
- Stefano Toffano
BMW BAYERISCHE MOTOREN WERKE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
FP TOTAL SE
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
RNO RENAULT SA
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
EO FAURECIA SA
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
DAI DAIMLER AG
GIVN GIVAUDAN SA
POM PLASTIC OMNIUM SE
SZG SALZGITTER AG
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
OR L'OREAL SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
ENI ENI S.P.A.
FR VALEO SE
RWE RWE AG
SAN SANOFI
VOW3 VOLKSWAGEN AG PREF
ERA ERAMET SA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
LPP LPP S.A.
CIE CIE AUTOMOTIVE S.A.
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
RACE FERRARI NV
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
SAP SAP SE
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
PIRC PIRELLI & C. S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
GEST GESTAMP AUTOMOCION S.A.
ERF EUROFINS SCIENTIFIC SOCIETE EUROPEENNE
AML ASTON MARTIN LAGONDA GLOBAL HOLDINGS
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
SHEL SHELL PLC
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN
GSK GSK PLC
P911 DR. ING. H.C. F. PORSCHE AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
ALIV SDB AUTOLIV INC.
BRE BREMBO S.P.A.
- Team Pharma
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vital Signs: Actionable charts
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
LOPE GRAND CANYON EDUCATION INC.
LNDC LANDEC CORP.
HOO HERBALIFE NUTRITION LTD.
DLTR DOLLAR TREE INC.
DG DOLLAR GENERAL CORPORATION
CAAS CHINA AUTOMOTIVE SYSTEMS ADS (N SHARES)
BFAM BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
AZO AUTOZONE INC.
ADMA ADMA BIOLOGICS INC
ACU ACME UNITED CORP.
OSTK OVERSTOCK.COM INC.
UVV UNIVERSAL CORP
FDP FRESH DEL MONTE PRODUCE INC.
TATT TAT TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
WMK WEIS MARKETS INC.
KINS KINGSTONE COS. INC.
NC NACCO INDUSTRIES INC. CL A
CHCI COMSTOCK HOLDING COMPANIES
VLGEA VILLAGE SUPER MARKET INC. CL A
LAUR LAUREATE EDUCATION INC. CLASS A
CMCL CALEDONIA MINING CORPORATION
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES
BRP BRP GROUP
GRPN GROUPON INC.
CNXC CONCENTRIX
DRVN DRIVEN BRANDS HOLDINGS
ALHC ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE INC
ADSE ADS TEC ENERGY PLC
KLG_w WK KELLOGG CO
TRVG TRIVAGO N.V.
BG BUNGE LIMITED
IDR IDAHO STRATEGIC RESOURCES INC
DBD DIEBOLD NIXDORF INCORPORATED
CCB CHASE CAPITAL VIII CAP SEC H 8.25%
MNPR MONOPAR THERAPEUTICS INC.
AEVA AEVA TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ORLY OREILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC CDA
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Les fondamentaux face à l’incertitude
Les déboires récents de quelques sociétés du secteur (déceptions de CagriSema de Novo, de l’anti-TIGIT de Roche ou investigations en Chine pour AZN) accompagnés de questionnements sur la politique US ont engendré un derating conduisant à une valorisation faciale attractive : PE 26e de 13.2x. Les publications annuelles des 6 large cap Pharma européennes ont été extrêmement rassurantes confirmant les attentes CT et LT du marché. Avec un BPA en croissance moyenne entre 2024 et 2028 de c10%, le PEG ...
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Fundamentals vs uncertainty
The recent setbacks for some sector companies (disappointments over Novo Nordisk’s Cagrisema and Roche’s anti-TIGIT or the investigations in China for AZN) along with question marks over US policy have generated a derating leading to a nominally attractive valuations: P/E 2026e of 13.2x. The full-year earnings reports of the six European large cap pharma companies were extremely reassuring, confirming short- and long-term market expectations. With average expected EPS growth between 2024 and 202...
- Ahmed Ben Salem
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
ERA ERAMET SA
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Ahmed Ben Salem
FP TOTAL SE
IPN IPSEN SA
TKA THYSSENKRUPP AG
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
BEKB BEKAERT SA
AAL ANGLO AMERICAN PLC
APAML APERAM SA
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
OUT1V OUTOKUMPU OYJ
SSAB A SSAB AB CLASS A
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
SZG SALZGITTER AG
KER KERING SA
VOE VOESTALPINE AG
ACX ACERINOX SA
G ASSICURAZIONI GENERALI S.P.A.
ENI ENI S.P.A.
SAN SANOFI
ERA ERAMET SA
ENEL ENEL SPA
REP REPSOL SA
NDA AURUBIS AG
AMG AMG ADVANCED METALLURGICAL GROUP N.V.
ITX INDUSTRIA DE DISENO TEXTIL S.A.
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
RIO RIO TINTO PLC
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SIE SIEMENS AG
BHP BHP GROUP LTD
BP. BP P.L.C.
REY REPLY S.P.A.
AMAG AMAG AUSTRIA METALL AG
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
DTG DAIMLER TRUCK
SHEL SHELL PLC
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
EU Pharma - 5 Reasons for Further Re-rating (Thematic, 42pgs)
Given the macro backdrop & our evidence in this note that Pharma can sustain faster than expected growth for the next decade, we believe investors should add to their Pharma positions. 2025 is the biggest year for pipeline readouts in recent history and we expect this to catalyse a re-rating. We show that 1) Pipelines are very robust, 2) The market underestimates the size of the “monster” blockbusters that account for 14% of all drugs, 3) 15% of 2030 sales are “generic resistant” due to the moda...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Near-Term Downside Likely Following False Breakouts Our long-term outlook remains bullish as long as the S&P 500 remains above 5770-5850 and 5600-5670 (worst case), and we are buyers at these levels. With that said, we see potential for near-term downside as the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and FANG+ (FNGS) (1) could not decisively break out to new highs, (2) display bearish false breakouts, (3) have fallen back into their 2+ month trading ranges, (4) are violating their 1+ month uptrends, and (5...
LLY ELI LILLY AND COMPANY
CFSL COCA-COLA FEMSA SAB DE CV (ADR)
JNJ JOHNSON & JOHNSON
BMY BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY
AKOB EMBOTELLADORA ANDINA S.A. SERIES B ADS
FMX FOMENTO ECONOMICO MEXICANO S.A.B. DE C.V. ADS
BMTA BRITISH AMERICAN TOBACCO PLC ADS
PM PHILIP MORRIS INTERNATIONAL INC.
ABBV ABBVIE INC.
CCHGY COCA-COLA HBC AG
ABT ABBOTT LABORATORIES
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC ADS
GSK. GLAXOSMITHKLINE PLC CEDEAR
IMBBY IMPERIAL BRANDS PLC
- Dominic Rose
- Naresh Chouhan
AZN - Innovation Premium Warranted (BUY, TP £150 [£120], 14pgs)
Our new deep-dive on the P2 pipeline shows that AZN can sustain 6% CAGR sales growth to 2030 despite a number of LOE’s and as a result, we believe AZN warrants a significant innovation premium. We assume a 25% success rate for the P2 pipeline despite AZN historically delivering 30%. Moreover, there are a multitude of catalysts this year that will likely de-risk the L-T growth profile & drive significant cons. upgrades. Our analysis of the baxdrostat opportunity shows that consensus forecasts app...
- ABGSC Healthcare Research
- Alexander Krämer
- Morten Larsen
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
BRE MBANK SA
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ORSTED ORSTED
RAA RATIONAL AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Benoit Valleaux
- Steven Gould
- Thomas Zlowodzki
BRE MBANK SA
FP TOTAL SE
EQNR EQUINOR ASA
MT ARCELORMITTAL SA
DBK DEUTSCHE BANK AG
RI PERNOD RICARD SA
DEMANT DEMANT A/S
KOMB KOMERCNI BANKA A.S.
ORSTED ORSTED
RAA RATIONAL AG
SPSN SWISS PRIME SITE AG
ASSA B ASSA ABLOY AB CLASS B
INGA ING GROEP NV
AD KONINKLIJKE AHOLD DELHAIZE N.V.
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
SHL SIEMENS HEALTHINEERS AG
VWS VESTAS WIND SYSTEMS
ARM ARM HOLDINGS PLC
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
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