EME Equity Market – May 2022 Market performance – markets down mostly, as MSCI EM Europe Index declines 3.6%. The MSCI EM Europe Index fell 3.6% mom and 2.0% mom in EUR and USD terms, respectively, in May. The best-performing index was the Russian MOEX, which added 6.3% mom in EUR terms, but declined 3.7% mom in local currency. However, we note that, with the CBR ban on short selling and restrictions on international investors, as well various sanctions, this performance is not fully comparable ...
CZ: CEZ - CEZ not to bid for RWE's storage assets in Czechia, press (neutral) PL: PKO BP - 9% wage hike offered to half of staff (neutral) RU: Polyus - New shareholder may add its representative to the board (neutral) RU: Tatneft - Proposed final DPS revealed weaker than expected payout for 2021 (negative)
HEADLINES: • Turkish automotive: ready for the ride (Ford Otosan and Tofas stay BUY, Dogus Otomotiv stays HOLD) • Ten Square Games: 1Q22 adjusted EBITDA in line with our and market's expectations NEUTRAL • Famur: 1Q22 EBITDA in line with expectations NEUTRAL • DataWalk: actual 1Q22 numbers fully in line with the preliminaries NEUTRAL • Fondul Proprietatea: takeaways from the call with Hidroelectrica's management NEUTRAL • Kofola: key takeaways from CEO interview with Seznam Zpravy NEUTRAL • Cyf...
MARKET COMMENT - POLYMETAL TUMBLES 33% AS FTSE EXCLUSION FURTHERS RUSSIA'S ISOLATION FROM GLOBAL MARKETSMoscow equity trading remains closed by the CBR. Among the only instruments still trading, Polymetal's London listing fell 33%, while FTSE announced the exclusion of the shares from its indexes, eliminating one of the last examples of Russia being included in global markets. STORIES> Oil and gas: Not benefiting much from strong Brent, but gaining from weak ruble> Tatneft: Moderate miss in 4Q2...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - АКЦИИ ПОЛИМЕТАЛЛА УПАЛИ В ЦЕНЕ НА 33% ПОСЛЕ ИСКЛЮЧЕНИЯ ИЗ ИНДЕКСОВ FTSEТорги акциями на Московской бирже по-прежнему не проводятся по решению ЦБ РФ. Бумаги Полиметалла с листингом в Лондоне - один из немногих российских инструментов, остававшийся на глобальных рынках, - упали в цене на 33% после того, как FTSE объявила об их исключении из своих индексов. Рубль торгуется около 105-110 за доллар. НОВОСТИ> Цены на нефть под давлением перед публикацией ежемесячного отчета МЭА...
HEADLINES: • Kruk: solid trends prevail in annual results (in line with preliminary net profit guidance) NEUTRAL • OMV: strategy update - net zero by 2050 • Piraeus Bank: delivery of transformation plan on track • Hellenic Bank: exposure to Russia/Ukraine NEUTRAL • Tatneft: FY21 results released • EME Macro/Strategy: Germany ZEW index signals another 2008 crisis ahead • Hungary macro: another survey signalling potential Orban win
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to unprecedented dislocations of capital and resources, on top of human tragedies. The sanctions imposed, by the world’s key nations, on Russia, its politicians, institutions, companies and businessmen, as well as the counter-measures introduced by the Russian government, are wide-ranging and continue to be imposed on a daily basis. The most severe sanctions are related to the freezing of the CBR’s FX reserves, as well as the freezing of non-residents’ assets...
The 4Q21 earnings season is about to kick off starting with Rosneft on Friday, followed by Novatek (February 16) and Gazprom Neft (February 17) next week. Lukoil, Tatneft and Gazprom will report 4Q21 financials in March-April. We expect sector EBITDA to rise again, particularly in the gas segment amid record high European gas prices. Dividend distributions should rise across the sector as well. Based on our estimates for 4Q21, most of the companies should see their full-year financials bounce ba...
In late-2020, the value of bonds trading with negative yields reached an all-time high value of USD 18trn. Since then, yields have started growing worldwide, and the sum halved to c.USD 9trn as of the end of January 2022. Although rising bonds yields do not usually favour high-dividend yielding stocks (HDY), we still believe that the latter may remain an attractive investment opportunity. As these equities usually tend to have strong balance sheets (low leverage, solid cash holdings), combined w...
The general evaluation of OAO TATNEFT (RU), a company active in the Integrated Oil & Gas industry, has been upgraded by the independent financial analyst theScreener with the addition of a star. Its fundamental valuation now shows 4 out of 4 possible stars while its market behaviour can be considered as moderately risky. theScreener believes that the additional star(s) merits the upgrade of its general evaluation to Slightly Positive. As of the analysis date January 4, 2022, the closing price wa...
MARKET COMMENT - RUSSIAN RISK-OFFRussian stocks sold off sharply nearly across the board yesterday and have moved lower still so far this morning. This comes amid lingering geopolitical anxiety and concern of impending policy tightening from central banks this week. STORIES> US official visiting Moscow today for talks on Russia-Ukraine standoff> Budget continues to show strong revenue growth in November> Russian oil and gas: Solid upside remains after good run
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - ИНВЕСТОРЫ ПРОДАЮТ РОССИЙСКИЕ АКТИВЫРоссийский рынок акций вчера резко упал на фоне геополитических опасений и ожиданий, что на этой неделе ведущие центробанки ужесточат денежно-кредитную политику. НОВОСТИ> В ноябре доходы бюджета России продолжали расти> Снижение цен на нефть продолжится> Российский нефтегазовый сектор. Декабрь-2021: акции заметно подорожали, но высокий потенциал роста сохраняется
Russian oil and gas shares have risen by 40% YTD, outperforming the MSCI EM Energy Index by 20% on the back of improving financials, driven by stronger oil and gas prices. We still see material upside in Russian oil and gas names, which we believe offer sustainable double-digit dividend yields - more than double the average for global peers.> There were no material surprises in 2021 either on the regulatory front or in terms of corporate news flow. Stronger oil and gas prices are reducing potent...
STOXX Europe 600 Index review - No changes of index constituents in our Coverage Universe AT: BAWAG Group - Completion of Hello Bank acquisition (neutral) AT: UNIQA - Preliminary results of bond tender offer (neutral) PL: mBank - Interview with the CEO for Parkiet (neutral) PL: PGNiG - Downward revision of mid-term domestic gas production guidance (negative) RO: Digi Communications - Digi sells its Hungarian subsidiaries for EUR 625 mn (positive) RU: Russian O&G statistics - Daily...
AT: CA Immo - Exraordinary dividend approved at EGM (neutral) AT: Lenzing - Lenzing returned to dividend payments, proposed DPS of EUR 4.35 for 2021 (positive) RU: Petropavlovsk - UGC to appeal the sale of the IRC stake in a UK court (negative) RU: Tatneft - Company plans to raise upstream capex more than threefold yoy in 2022e (negative) SI: NLB Group - Signing deal with MIGA to optimize capital (neutral)
HEADLINES: • Greek oil & gas: a more refined business model (Hellenic Petroleum upgraded to BUY, Motor Oil Hellas stays BUY) • Immofinanz: 3Q21 - recurring in line, retail faring well, guiding for EUR 135m pre-tax 2023E FFO I • Public Power Corporation: weak 3Q21 results on power macro headwinds NEGATIVE • Alpha Bank: 3Q21 - solid delivery • Terna Energy: 9M21 numbers - no major surprises • Ignitis Group: 3Q21 results - 4% EBITDA miss, but 2021E guidance stands NEUTRAL • Echo Investment: 3Q...
HEADLINES: • Atrium: Gazit's EUR 3.63 offer - attractive (downgraded to SELL) • Kruk: harder, better, faster, stronger (BUY - reinitiation of coverage) • Cyfrowy Polsat: awaiting the new strategy... (downgraded to HOLD) • Petrol Group: delivering, expanding, distributing (stays BUY) • CD Projekt: 3Q21 results miss our expectations, focus on improving sentiment on CP77 NEGATIVE • Gazprom: 3Q21 results and conference call takeaways NEUTRAL • Tatneft: 3Q21 results review NEUTRAL • Wizz Air: s...
КОММЕНТАРИЙ И ПРОГНОЗ - РЫНКИ ВЧЕРА ВЫРОСЛИ, А СЕГОДНЯ СНИЗИЛИСЬ: ИНВЕСТОРЫ АНАЛИЗИРУЮТ ВОЗМОЖНОЕ ВЛИЯНИЕ НОВОГО ШТАММА КОРОНАВИРУСАВчера лидировали рынки России (индекс РТС поднялся на 3,1% дo 1 639 пунктов) и США (S&P 500 прибавил 1,3%) - инвесторы реагировали на неоднозначные сообщения о новом штамме коронавируса. Впрочем, сегодня утром пессимистичная оценка компании Moderna спровоцировала волну продаж на биржах AТР и рынках фьючерсов. Эта новость больше повлияла на рынок, чем оптимистичные и...
MARKET COMMENT - GAINS YESTERDAY, FRESH DECLINES TODAY AS MARKETS WEIGH OMICRONRussia (RTS up 3.1% to 1,639) and the US (S&P 500 1.3%) were among leading markets as stocks reacted to a more mixed batch of headlines regarding the Omicron Covid-19 strain. However, a pessimistic assessment from Moderna has triggered a fresh selloff in APAC stocks and global futures this morning, pushing aside more bullish headlines on Chinese PMIs and possible delays to central bank tightening. Investors will likel...
EBITDA close to our estimates, but slightly below consensus NOCF beat forecasts propped up by positive WC and banking effects As a result, even with higher than expected capex, Tatnefts FCF was above estimates Q3 21 results are considered as marginally positive for the stock
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