reports
- ABGSC Telecom Operators Research
- Oscar Rönnkvist
- Øystein Elton Lodgaard
- Simon Granath
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neut...
The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.
- Soomit Datta
Mexican Cable/FTTH – Capex down, promotions lifting; Buy MEGA; TV/TPLA...
Following TotalPlay and Televisa results at the end of last week, and Megacable the week prior, we highlight key positive conclusions from the Mexican reporting season: 1/ Capex is coming down across the board in Mexico in FY 24 driving an uplift in OpFCF margin for all players, 2/ Lower promotional intensity through YE is helping ARPUs and would be supportive if it holds.
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL61, +15%) Vivo - Q4 23: Double digit EBITDA growth,...
Vivo reported a good set of Q4s, with a 2% EBITDA beat taking growth to 10% y/y, or 6% in real terms. Wireless service revenue growth is running ahead of peers with post-paid adds very strong; fixed has been consistently growing now at 2-3% for a few quarters. Capex came in at a shade below BRL9 billion, a level in absolute terms which think can be maintained for the coming years (and implying falling as % sales).
- James Ratzer
- Russell Waller
Orange Masmovil approval: A good outcome. A compliant EC? More M&A to ...
The EC has approved the Orange Masmovil merger (HERE) with remedies unchanged from the announcement in early December (HERE). We continue to be of the view that the remedy package is a good one for the operators in Spain, and indeed for the likelihood of further M&A in Europe.
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind star...
Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).
- Soomit Datta
TV (Neutral, TP: $3.7, +17%) Televisa – Spin Co support for M&A; TVUN...
Ahead of the spin of its non-core assets next week (Feb 20th) we highlight the impact to Televisa: potentially an ex-div move of up to $0.5 per ADR (assuming SpinCo trades at 4x EBITDA, in-line with our implied valuation). Cleaning up the business would be a helpful move ahead of potential M&A (with Megacable). We also run through TVUNI (>100% of target TV equity) Q4 results yesterday, feeling the headwinds of a tough comp in the 2022 World Cup, but with a better outlook for 2024 where we think...
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable - falling Capex outlook driving...
We provide a quick outlook (via a key chart) on the slowing FTTH roll in 2024/25 and how we think this plays into capex, supported also by current stronger peso/$, which we see declining from 2024 helping transform FCF prospects. We also preview numbers ahead of Q4: the last quarter of big capex spend we think, with strong operational momentum anticipated, with some seasonality to EBITDA margin.
- Soomit Datta
ENTEL (Neutral, TP: CLP3,150, -0.3%) Entel - Better Chilean Wireless ...
Entel reported Q4s yesterday after the close. Revenue and EBITDA came in 6-7% (when removing revenue linked to the fibre sale) though this was partly driven by handset sales. Wireless service trends also beat in Chile, and were optically impressive, though in reality enjoyed a much easier comp (Q4 22); we’re not convinced the fundamentals are getting any better and we note price increases for 2024 have yet to be committed to.
- Soomit Datta
LatAm Telcos – 2024 Outlook: Top picks Brazil (TIM and Vivo) and Megac...
After strong stock performance in 2023 we think the Brazilians will continue to perform into 2024 on the back of solid wireless fundamentals: rising prices, revenue/EBITDA > inflation, falling capex/sales – and with IOC (tax) risks in the rear view for now. Shareholder returns are also sector leading whilst valuations are attractive (notably versus quickly falling rates).
Moody's affirms Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones' (ENTEL) Baa3 r...
Moody's Investors Service (Moody's) today affirmed Empresa Nacional de Telecomunicaciones S.A.´s ("ENTEL") Baa3 Long-Term Issuer Rating and the Baa3 ratings for the Senior Unsecured Global Notes due 2024 and the Senior Unsecured Global Bonds due 2026. The outlook was changed to negative from stable....
- Russell Waller
Remedy package signed in Spain: Not as bad as the headline would sugge...
The decision that we have all been waiting for has finally arrived. Orange Masmovil and Digi have reached an agreement for a remedy package in Spain. We provide our thoughts on the package in this piece. The headline “Digi buying spectrum” is bad, but we think that the reality and specifics of the package are nowhere near as bad as the headline would suggest.
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +25%) TV (Neutral, TP: $3.7, +12%) Mexico M&A -...
One year on and speculation as to a merger between Megacable and Televisa (Izzy Cable) is back, as evidenced by the past few days’ share price rally. Over the last year, Izzy has struggled operationally as Megacable has rapidly overlaid Izzy homes. We re-run a merger analysis reflecting the balance of power swing toward Megacable and the likelihood it rather than Televisa take control of the Cable NewCo.
- Russell Waller
Masmovil Q3 23: Interesting updates given on timing and remedies for ...
Masmovil (MM) has reported a good set of numbers, with Telco SR better at +7.7% y/y from +6.1% y/y in Q2. EBITDA growth y/y is much worse sequentially, but quarterly trends can be volatile: 9m EBITDA growth was +7.7% y/y vs +7.0% y/y in 2022. MM gave some interesting updates to the merger process on the call, which we include in this report.
- Soomit Datta
TIM/Vivo - Maintain Buys; Solid Wireless supported by improving Tower ...
Despite the 40-45% rally YTD we continue to like the Brazilian Telco stocks. Wireless operator dynamics remain very favourable with FCF supported significantly for TIM in the near-term by Oi tower decommissioning, with a potentially broader reset for the industry relative to the Tower cos over the mid-term (part of a broader EM theme perhaps following IHS in Nigeria).
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
Vivo (Buy, TP: BRL61, +30%) Vivo Q3 23 – Solid quarter, strong FCF pa...
Vivo reported solid Q3s, with revenue and EBITDA (stripping out a BRL175m gain) 1.2% and 1.5% ahead of consensus, respectively. Service revenue grew 7.5% YoY (similar to Q2) driven by 3% growth in fixed and 9% in wireless, and remaining well ahead of inflation (which is creeping up again in Brazil). FCF generation, supported by falling capex, remains a highlight, with YTD of BRL7.6 billion representing >10% yield to equity – there will be more to come in Q4. FCF paves the way for the BRL5 billio...
- David Lopes
- Soomit Datta
AMX (Buy, TP: $24, +43%) MEGA (Neutral, TP: MXN43, +21%) TV (Neutral, ...
We round up on Mexican fixed results from the last 24 hours. Trends continue to show Megacable and Totalplay as share gainers, with Izzy (Televisa) significant share losers, exacerbated this quarter by a large subs write offs. AMX is adding subs, though at a lower rate.
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