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Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but the many risk-off signals have increased the odds that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern. It is possible that the low for this multi-month consolidation has already been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vital Signs: Actionable charts

In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.

SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY sees a downgrade to Negative on account of less fun...

The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY (US), active in the Broadcasting & Entertainment industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 0 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered risky. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Negative. As of the analysis date February 4, 2022, the closing price was USD 174.43 ...

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Dave Nicoski ... (+2)
  • Dave Nicoski
  • Ross LaDuke

Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify 1Q Subscriber Base Sees Boost, but Accompanied b...

Spotify reported mixed first-quarter results, as its premium subscriber base helped improve revenue and margins, but pressure on ad pricing and Spotify’s changing library of offerings moderated results. Still, earnings were roughly in line with our expectations, and we continue to think the company will turn a profit starting in 2020—especially with Spotify’s promising efforts to better monetize the podcast industry. We are therefore maintaining our $130 fair value estimate. Although the s...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify 1Q Subscriber Base Sees Boost, but Accompanied by Ad Revenue P...

Spotify reported mixed first-quarter results, as its premium subscriber base helped improve revenue and margins, but pressure on ad pricing and Spotify’s changing library of offerings moderated results. Still, earnings were roughly in line with our expectations, and we continue to think the company will turn a profit starting in 2020—especially with Spotify’s promising efforts to better monetize the podcast industry. We are therefore maintaining our $130 fair value estimate. Although the s...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify Reports Mixed 4Q Results; Increasing FVE to $130...

With slightly better-than-expected subscriber growth offsetting the continuing decline in average revenue generated per user, Spotify’s fourth-quarter revenue came in ahead of our expectation but in line with consensus. Helped by gross margin expansion and lower costs associated with stock options and restricted stock units, Spotify’s operating income and margin were above our internal projections and consensus. As we have noted for some time, no-moat Spotify must begin acquiring content or ...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify Reports Mixed 4Q Results; Increasing FVE to $130; Shares Remai...

With slightly better-than-expected subscriber growth offsetting the continuing decline in average revenue generated per user, Spotify’s fourth-quarter revenue came in ahead of our expectation but in line with consensus. Helped by gross margin expansion and lower costs associated with stock options and restricted stock units, Spotify’s operating income and margin were above our internal projections and consensus. As we have noted for some time, no-moat Spotify must begin acquiring content or ...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify Faces Stiff Competition From Behemoths Such as A...

Swedish-based Spotify is the world’s leading music streaming service provider. We foresee the fast-growing digital streaming space as becoming the primary distribution platform of choice within the ever-changing music industry. We believe Spotify can benefit from various network effects that will help the firm increase its users and amass valuable intangible assets associated with user data and listening preferences. However, it faces intense competition and has a (mostly) variable cost struct...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify Faces Stiff Competition From Behemoths Such as Apple, Google, ...

Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify Reports Strong 3Q Numbers but Guidance Disappoin...

Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify Reports Strong 3Q Numbers but Guidance Disappoin...

Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify Reports Strong 3Q Numbers but Guidance Disappoints; Shares Are...

Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify Pleases the Street With Better-Than-Expected 2Q ...

Spotify reported slightly better-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by user growth and partially offset by continuing decline in revenue generated per user. Management provided top- and bottom-line guidance in line with our estimates. However, due to stronger second-quarter user growth along with an anticipated increase in spending on subscriber acquisition, we increased our revenue growth and operating loss estimates, which did not change our $124 per share fair value estimate on Spot...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Morningstar | Spotify faces stiff competition from behemoths such as A...

Swedish-based Spotify is the world’s leading music streaming service provider, and we foresee the fast-growing digital streaming space as becoming the primary distribution platform of choice within the ever-changing music industry. We believe Spotify can benefit from various network effects that will help the firm increase its users and amass valuable intangible assets associated with user data and listening preferences. However, the firm faces intense competition and has a (mostly) variable c...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify faces stiff competition from behemoths such as Apple, Google, ...

Spotify kicked off its first year as a publicly traded firm with mixed March quarter results as revenue came in a bit shy of consensus (in line with our internal estimate), but cost control helped lower operating loss significantly. While premium subscribers and overall listeners continued to grow, average revenue per user, or ARPU, declined much more than expected. Management maintained the full-year guidance it had initially provided on March 26. We adjusted our revenue estimates slightly lowe...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify Pleases the Street With Better-Than-Expected 2Q Results; Share...

Spotify reported slightly better-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by user growth and partially offset by continuing decline in revenue generated per user. Management provided top- and bottom-line guidance in line with our estimates. However, due to stronger second-quarter user growth along with an anticipated increase in spending on subscriber acquisition, we increased our revenue growth and operating loss estimates, which did not change our $124 per share fair value estimate on Spot...

Ali Mogharabi
  • Ali Mogharabi

Spotify Reported Declining ARPUs but Impressive Cost Control; Raising ...

Spotify kicked off its first year as a publicly traded firm with mixed March quarter results as revenue came in a bit shy of consensus (in line with our internal estimate), but cost control helped lower operating loss significantly. While premium subscribers and overall listeners continued to grow, average revenue per user, or ARPU, declined much more than expected. Management maintained the full-year guidance it had initially provided on March 26. We adjusted our revenue estimates slightly lowe...

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