Downgrading Consumer Discretionary to Underweight We downgraded our long-term outlook to neutral last week (8/6/24 Compass) after being bullish since early-November 2023. We still believe the S&P 500 is going through a 1- to 4-month consolidation phase, but the many risk-off signals have increased the odds that this consolidation phase could be a topping pattern. It is possible that the low for this multi-month consolidation has already been established within our expected pullback zone of 5100...
In this product we rank the most positive and negative domestic stocks, filter the symbols by market-cap and trading volume, and then divide the companies into sectors and groups. We then manually look through charts leadership/changes, bottoms-up/top-down ideas, short-term patterns that may have long-term significance, etc. We believe you will find this product valuable as significant price and relative moves begin in the daily charts.
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of SPOTIFY TECHNOLOGY (US), active in the Broadcasting & Entertainment industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title now shows 0 out of 4 stars while market behaviour can be considered risky. theScreener believes that the title remains under pressure due to the loss of a star(s) and downgrades its general evaluation to Negative. As of the analysis date February 4, 2022, the closing price was USD 174.43 ...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Spotify reported mixed first-quarter results, as its premium subscriber base helped improve revenue and margins, but pressure on ad pricing and Spotify’s changing library of offerings moderated results. Still, earnings were roughly in line with our expectations, and we continue to think the company will turn a profit starting in 2020—especially with Spotify’s promising efforts to better monetize the podcast industry. We are therefore maintaining our $130 fair value estimate. Although the s...
Spotify reported mixed first-quarter results, as its premium subscriber base helped improve revenue and margins, but pressure on ad pricing and Spotify’s changing library of offerings moderated results. Still, earnings were roughly in line with our expectations, and we continue to think the company will turn a profit starting in 2020—especially with Spotify’s promising efforts to better monetize the podcast industry. We are therefore maintaining our $130 fair value estimate. Although the s...
With slightly better-than-expected subscriber growth offsetting the continuing decline in average revenue generated per user, Spotify’s fourth-quarter revenue came in ahead of our expectation but in line with consensus. Helped by gross margin expansion and lower costs associated with stock options and restricted stock units, Spotify’s operating income and margin were above our internal projections and consensus. As we have noted for some time, no-moat Spotify must begin acquiring content or ...
With slightly better-than-expected subscriber growth offsetting the continuing decline in average revenue generated per user, Spotify’s fourth-quarter revenue came in ahead of our expectation but in line with consensus. Helped by gross margin expansion and lower costs associated with stock options and restricted stock units, Spotify’s operating income and margin were above our internal projections and consensus. As we have noted for some time, no-moat Spotify must begin acquiring content or ...
Swedish-based Spotify is the world’s leading music streaming service provider. We foresee the fast-growing digital streaming space as becoming the primary distribution platform of choice within the ever-changing music industry. We believe Spotify can benefit from various network effects that will help the firm increase its users and amass valuable intangible assets associated with user data and listening preferences. However, it faces intense competition and has a (mostly) variable cost struct...
Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...
Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...
Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...
Spotify’s third-quarter results exceeded our expectations and consensus as the firm continued to display strong overall user growth. However, we note that user growth was driven by more lower-priced bundled offering subscriptions that decreased Spotify’s average revenue per user. We remain convinced that no-moat Spotify’s first-mover advantage will deteriorate over time as larger companies such as Apple will gain further traction in the streaming music space and may put pricing pressure on...
Spotify reported slightly better-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by user growth and partially offset by continuing decline in revenue generated per user. Management provided top- and bottom-line guidance in line with our estimates. However, due to stronger second-quarter user growth along with an anticipated increase in spending on subscriber acquisition, we increased our revenue growth and operating loss estimates, which did not change our $124 per share fair value estimate on Spot...
Swedish-based Spotify is the world’s leading music streaming service provider, and we foresee the fast-growing digital streaming space as becoming the primary distribution platform of choice within the ever-changing music industry. We believe Spotify can benefit from various network effects that will help the firm increase its users and amass valuable intangible assets associated with user data and listening preferences. However, the firm faces intense competition and has a (mostly) variable c...
Spotify kicked off its first year as a publicly traded firm with mixed March quarter results as revenue came in a bit shy of consensus (in line with our internal estimate), but cost control helped lower operating loss significantly. While premium subscribers and overall listeners continued to grow, average revenue per user, or ARPU, declined much more than expected. Management maintained the full-year guidance it had initially provided on March 26. We adjusted our revenue estimates slightly lowe...
Spotify reported slightly better-than-expected second-quarter results, driven by user growth and partially offset by continuing decline in revenue generated per user. Management provided top- and bottom-line guidance in line with our estimates. However, due to stronger second-quarter user growth along with an anticipated increase in spending on subscriber acquisition, we increased our revenue growth and operating loss estimates, which did not change our $124 per share fair value estimate on Spot...
Spotify kicked off its first year as a publicly traded firm with mixed March quarter results as revenue came in a bit shy of consensus (in line with our internal estimate), but cost control helped lower operating loss significantly. While premium subscribers and overall listeners continued to grow, average revenue per user, or ARPU, declined much more than expected. Management maintained the full-year guidance it had initially provided on March 26. We adjusted our revenue estimates slightly lowe...
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