Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
We are updating our estimates to reflect actual 2Q24 NYMEX reference prices of $80.66/bbl for oil and $2.32/MMBtu for natural gas. We have also increased our 2Q24 lease operating cost estimate to reflect workover activity and bumped our DD&A estimate. Talos’s latest guidance and our updated estimates are outlined in Figures 1 – 4. Our FY24 adjusted EBITDA estimate is $1.3 billion, up from $951 million in FY23. The Y/Y increase is largely attributable to the positive impact of the contribution fr...
We hosted a fireside chat with President and CEO Tim Duncan on May 16, 2024, to discuss how Talos’s transformative acquisitions position the company for the future. This report contains a transcript of the conversation, which can be accessed on demand. Link is accessible in our full report. Talos executed four transactions during 1Q24, including the QuarterNorth acquisition that materially expanded its Gulf of Mexico production base and prospect portfolio, two capital markets transactions, and t...
Talos will release 1Q24 financial and operating results after market close on Monday, May 6, 2024. Management will host a conference call, broadcast live over the internet, on Tuesday, May 7, 2024, at 10:00 am ET. 1Q24 results will include roughly one month of contribution from the assets acquired in the QuarterNorth transaction, which closed on March 4, 2024. The QuarterNorth acquisition added an oil-weighted (~75% oil production) asset base (>95% operated), bolstering Talos’s position in the M...
Talos’s FY24 operating plan prioritizes free cash flow generation. The midpoint of FY24 production guidance is nearly 40% above FY23 production, while the midpoint of the FY24 upstream capex budget is 7% lower than FY23. Our modeling suggests the combination could generate $479 million of free cash flow in FY24, compared with $3 million in FY23. The anticipated free cash flow waterfall could allow Talos to repay nearly $400 million of borrowings under the existing RBL credit facility. Our update...
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