reports
- Emmanuel Matot
- Marc Lavaud
- Michael B. Schäfer
- Marc Lavaud
- Michael B. Schäfer
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
Novartis : Reassuring CMD on the medium to long-term outlook
>Prefer quality over quantity - At its CMD in London yesterday, Novartis confirmed its pure player positioning in innovative medicine and its strategy focused on four therapeutic areas (cardiovascular/renal, oncology, neuroscience and immunology), five technological platforms and four geographical regions (US, China, Germany, Japan). We note the ambition to continue to improve R&D productivity by reducing the time-to-market (in part thanks to the use of AI) and focus...
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
Novartis : CMD rassurant sur les perspectives MT/LT
>Privilégier la qualité à la quantité - Dans le cadre de son CMD qui s’est tenu hier à Londres, Novartis a confirmé son positionnement pure player médecine innovante et sa stratégie centrée sur 4 aires thérapeutiques (cardiovasculaire/rénal, oncologie, neuroscience et immunologie), 5 plateformes technologiques et 4 zones géographiques (US, Chine, Allemagne, Japon). Nous notons une volonté de continuer à améliorer la productivité de la R&D en réduisant le time-to-mark...
- Oliver Metzger
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ADS ADIDAS AG
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ALV ALLIANZ SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
SIX2 SIXT SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
8TRA TRATON SE
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
- Oliver Metzger
WCH WACKER CHEMIE AG
GALP GALP ENERGIA SGPS SA CLASS B
ADS ADIDAS AG
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
FORTUM FORTUM OYJ
ALV ALLIANZ SE
ISP INTESA SANPAOLO S.P.A.
SIX2 SIXT SE
UCG UNICREDIT S.P.A.
BP. BP P.L.C.
DWS DWS GROUP GMBH & CO. KGAA
8TRA TRATON SE
STMN STRAUMANN HOLDING AG
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
Novartis : Q3 ahead of expectations – FY guidance upgraded
>Excellent performance from flagship products - Q3 came in ahead of expectations for revenues (+2% vs consensus) and core EPS (+6% vs consensus). Sales grew 10% cc (9% reported), driven by all the flagship products: Entresto (26% cc, -1% vs cons.), Cosentyx (28% cc, +8% vs cons.), Kisqali (43% cc, +1% vs cons.), Kesimpta (28%, +1% vs cons.) and Pluvicto (50% cc, +2% vs cons.). We note that c. 60% of the beat stems from the excellent performance from Cosentyx driven by...
- Damien Choplain
- Martial Descoutures
Novartis : T3 2024 au-dessus des attentes. Guidance FY relevée
>Excellente performance des produits phares - Le T3 ressort au-dessus des attentes au niveau des ventes (+2% vs Css) et du core BPA (+6% vs Css). Les ventes progressent de 10% tcc (9% en publié) tirées par tous les produits phares : Entresto (26%cc, -1% vs Cs), Cosentyx (28%cc, +8% vs Cs), Kisqali (43%cc, +1% vs Cs) et Kesimpta (28%cc, +1% vs Cs) et Pluvicto (50%cc, +2% vs Cs). Soulignons que c. 60% du beat provient de l’excellente performance de Cosentyx tiré par les...
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Feedback from the MS Expert Access event: still many areas for ...
Last week, we organised an Expert Access event on multiple sclerosis (MS) with the participation of Dr Géraldine Androdias, a neurologist at Lyon University Hospital. Dr Androdias presented the key points of the ECTRIMS 2024 conference, as well as new trends in treating the illness. We note an unmet need in the primary progressive and secondary progressive forms, a real interest for the BTKi class with the greater penetration of the blood-brain barrier, and expectations for the a...
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Feedback Expert Access SEP : encore de nombreux axes d’améliora...
Nous avons organisé la semaine dernière un Expert Access autour de la sclérose en plaques (SEP) avec la participation du Dr Géraldine Androdias, médecin neurologue au CHU de Lyon. Le Dr Androdias a présenté les points saillants du congrès de l’ECTRIMS 2024 ainsi que les nouvelles tendances dans la prise en charge de la maladie. Nous retenons un besoin insatisfait dans les formes progressives et secondairement progressives, un vrai intérêt de la classe des BTKi avec le passage acc...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
WOR WORTHINGTON INDUSTRIES INC.
VC VISTEON CORPORATION
TMST TIMKENSTEEL CORP
TM.N TOYOTA MOTOR ADS
THRM GENTHERM INCORPORATED
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
SEDG SOLAREDGE TECHNOLOGIES INC.
NOVA NOVO NORDISK A/S ADS
MKSI MKS INSTRUMENTS INC.
DLY LYONDELLBASELL INDUSTRIES NV
LRCX LAM RESEARCH CORPORATION
LOPE GRAND CANYON EDUCATION INC.
IDXX IDEXX LABORATORIES INC.
ECHA ECOPETROL S.A. ADS
COTY COTY INC. CLASS A
BP BP PLC ADS
ALV ALLIANZ SE
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
DOO BRP INC.
IIIN INSTEEL INDUSTRIES INC.
ACLS AXCELIS TECHNOLOGIES INC.
ENPH ENPHASE ENERGY INC.
ENTG ENTEGRIS INC.
ICHR ICHOR HOLDINGS LTD.
ASML ASML HOLDING N.V.
DK DELEK US HOLDINGS INC
TALO TALOS ENERGY INC.
GNMSY GENMAB A/S
STLA STELLANTIS N.V.
VAL VALARIS LTD
APP APPLOVIN CORP
CIVI CIVITAS RESOURCES INC
TEL TE CONNECTIVITY LTD.
SDRL SEADRILL LTD
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 10/14/2024
We are removing GSK from our European Large Caps Convictions List. The company is the only one of the six Big Pharma groups to have experienced a break in trend, which could act as a drag on future publications. Our analyst adjusted this morning his EPS estimates for 2024/2025/2026 by -0.6%, 2.0% and- 3.4% respectively, factoring in weaker growth for Arexvy and Shingrix, hence the lowering of his target price from 2,150p to 1,900p. - ...
CA CARREFOUR SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
ORA ORANGE SA
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SAND SANDVIK AB
EN BOUYGUES SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
SAN SANOFI
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
EPI A EPIROC AB
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Bruno Cavalier
- Jean Danjou
- Thomas Zlowodzki
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 14/10/2024
Nous sortons GSK de notre liste de valeurs recommandées Large Caps. La société est la seule des 6 big Pharma à connaître une rupture de tendance qui pourrait peser lors des prochaines publications. Notre analyste ajuste ce jour ses prévisions de BPA 24/25/26 de -0.6%/-2.0%/-3.4% intégrant une plus faible croissance pour Arexvy et Shingrix, ce qui conduit à une baisse de son objectif de cours de 2 150p à 1 900p. - ...
CA CARREFOUR SA
MC LVMH MOET HENNESSY LOUIS VUITTON SE
ROG ROCHE HOLDING LTD
ORA ORANGE SA
NOVN NOVARTIS AG
UHR SWATCH GROUP LTD. BEARER
RMS HERMES INTERNATIONAL SCA
SAND SANDVIK AB
EN BOUYGUES SA
EL ESSILORLUXOTTICA SA
BRBY BURBERRY GROUP PLC
KER KERING SA
SAN SANOFI
HEI HEIDELBERGCEMENT AG
AIR AIRBUS SE
01913 PRADA S.P.A.
MOCORP METSO OUTOTEC OYJ
FDR FLUIDRA S.A.
MONC MONCLER SPA
BC BRUNELLO CUCINELLI S.P.A.
CFR COMPAGNIE FINANCIERE RICHEMONT SA
AZN ASTRAZENECA PLC
ASML ASML HOLDING NV
EPI A EPIROC AB
GSK GSK PLC
NOVO B NOVO NORDISK A/S
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Confirmation of guidance ahead of a busy Q4 for clinical result...
>Adverse trend in September - The pharma sector’s stock market performance in Q3 fell short of the momentum seen in the first half of the year (large cap pharma coverage at -7.7% vs Stoxx 600 HC at -0.4%). Indeed, after a sector rally over the summer (July and August), several stocks came under pressure in September. Unlike the previous quarter, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk and Roche took a hit (-12.7%, -16% and -5.8% respectively) after the disappointing clinical perfo...
- Team Pharma
ODDO : Confirmation des guidances avant un T4 cliniquement dense
>Un mois de septembre pénalisant - La performance boursière du secteur pharma au T3 a été en-deçà de la dynamique enregistrée sur la première moitié de l’année (coverage large cap pharma -7.7% vs Stoxx 600 HC -0.4%). En effet, après un rebond sectoriel durant l’été (juillet et août), nous avons observé une pression sur plusieurs titres au mois de septembre. Contrairement au trimestre passé, AstraZeneca, Novo Nordisk et Roche ont été fortement pénalisées (-12.7%, -16% ...
- Damien Choplain
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 09/03/2024
After a stress episode in the first few days of the month, the equity markets finished August on a gain. US markets ended slightly ahead of Europe, thanks notably to the latest good US GDP numbers, but this performance is erased by the strong rise of the euro. The main driver was short rates falling in anticipation of rate cuts by central banks, with 2-year rates coming close to 10-year rates in the US and Europe. Tech stocks took a hit but less so than in July, and the two worst per...
- Damien Choplain
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 03/09/2024
Après leur stress tout début août, les marchés actions finissent le mois dans le vert. Les marchés américains terminent légèrement devant l’Europe, notamment grâce aux derniers bons chiffres du PIB USA, mais cette performance est effacée par la forte remontée de l’euro. Ce sont surtout les taux courts qui ont reculé, anticipant des baisses de taux par les banques centrales, le 2 ans revenant proche du 10 ans aux USA comme en Europe. Les valeurs technologiques ont souffert mais moins q...
- Damien Choplain
ODDO : IRA : rabais de la première liste en ligne avec nos attentes
>Discount de la première liste Medicare enfin dévoilé (-66% en médiane) - Le 15 août dernier, l’administration Biden-Harris a officiellement communiqué le rabais qui sera appliqué aux 10 médicaments (voir tableau en deuxième page) de la première liste établie par Medicare dans le cadre de l’IRA. Il ressort donc de ces négociations un discount appliqué sur le list price allant de -38% (Imbruvica ; oncologie) à -79% (Januvia ; diabète) avec une médiane à -66%, ce qui d...
- Damien Choplain
ODDO : IRA: discount on the first list in line with our forecasts
>Discount for the first Medicare list finally announced (median of -66%) - On 15 August, the Biden-Harris administration officially announced the discount that will be applied to the 10 drugs (see the list on page 2) of the first list set out by Medicare within the IRA framework. The result of the negotiations is an applied discount to the list price ranging from -38% (Imbruvica, oncology) to -79% (Januvia, diabetes) with a median of -66%, which should generate savin...
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