Crude Quarterly Q4'24: oil market stabilising

Namibia uncertainty with Shell write-down

Shell is reportedly due to make a write-down in Namibia as discoveries are estimated to be commercially unavailable. Shell has been among the most active oil companies in Namibia, with five discoveries announced, and there have been expectations for future developments. Hence, we see the write-down as a setback for future development activity (which consumes more oil services volumes than exploration). As Total has appeared more optimistic on future developments in Namibia in the past, this setb...

Vermilion Booster Shots: Attractive bottom-fishing stocks

For investors looking for bottom-fishing candidates; stocks that are breaking downtrends, exhibiting ascending reaction lows, and showing stabilizing relative strength.

While waiting for Pemex

With outstanding Pemex receivables equal to around five quarters of revenues, key for offshore drillers with Pemex exposure (Paratus and Borr Drilling) is to start to collect or monetise receivables during the next few months. Although Pemex is in a challenging financial situation with declining production, local reports and statements from the Mexican president suggest suppliers should start to get paid by March. For Paratus and Borr Drilling, payments would be a relief, while continued delays ...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

First award confirmed under Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender

Constellation confirmed the contract award under the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender after being the low bidder on Lot 1 with its 6G drillship Amaralina Star (dayrate of cUSD429k including third-party services). Based on the confirmation of Constellation, we believe the remaining two awards in the ‘rig pool’ tender have likely also been concluded, with Etesco’s 6G drillship Etesco Takatsugu J (USD352k) and Seadrill’s 7G drillship West Jupiter (around the USD450k level) as the low bidders. As highlig...

Energy Morning - 17 December 2024

Norway: Best ideas Q4'24

Energy Morning - 16 December 2024

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

ExxonMobil update highlights efficiency, no incremental demand for oil...

From an oil services perspective, we consider the key takeaway from ExxonMobil’s corporate update to be continued high and improving capital efficiency, allowing it to do “more with less”. By 2030e, it plans to increase production by c1m barrels per day to 5.4m barrels per day on largely flat upstream capex compared to 2023–2024 levels. This implies further efficiency improvement, which we consider on the downside for the oil services industry as it implies no need for incremental service capaci...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Energy Morning - 27 November 2024

Petrobras rig pool tender appears to have awarded three of four rig sl...

For the Petrobras ‘rig pool’ tender, which had bids due in mid-October, bid evaluation appears to have been completed. The tender was for “up to” four deepwater rigs with 3-year duration across three lots. It seems Petrobras has only progressed with three of the maximum four rigs it could award. Lots 1 and 2 appear to have gone to local contractors Constellation and Etesco, while only Seadrill was selected in Lot 3, making up the three rigs in total (meaning Valaris was not selected in Lot 3). W...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Petrobras FPSO delays may hit service volumes but lengthen cycle

Being the largest global consumer of deepwater oil services, Petrobras’ strategic plans tend to get investor attention. On the positive side, its latest 5-year plan sees 5% higher E&P spending than the previous one, and has a more stable phasing between the years, which is supportive for the cycle duration. However, several FPSOs are facing significant delays, which is on the downside for oil services, leading to delays for deepwater oilfield services (primarily drilling and subsea), likely resu...

Valuation and market update

In this note, we show updated valuation and market statistics for the Offshore Drilling sector.

Borr Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK65.00) - Volatile times set to remain

Uncertainty in the jackup market has intensified, resulting in greater volatility and more idle time for jackups. While benefiting from good contract coverage, exposure to remote regions, and commercial discipline, it is set to eventually be affected by the market challenges. Thus, we have cut our EBITDA estimates and are 6–12% below consensus for 2025–2026e. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to NOK65 (95).

Odfjell Drilling (Buy, TP: NOK100.00) - Set to deliver on dividend sto...

With its intensive 5-year survey schedule on track and within budget (two completed and two remaining), the company intends to increase its quarterly dividend with its Q4 results. The current dividend yield is 5%, while we estimate 7–16% for 2025–2026. We see further upside to this in a potential refinancing scenario that could allow all cash to be distributed to shareholders, suggesting potential for aggregated dividends equal to its entire market cap to be paid by end-2028. We expect Odfjell D...