reports
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits : Further deterioration in the outlook
>EBITDA loss of € 20m-25m expected for 2018 - After a sharp drop in sales in H1 (brand business down -26% in Q2 after -19.7% in Q1), the group has revised down its forecasts for the 2018 earnings.Its initial forecast was for 2018 EBITDA to be, granted, negative, but higher than the 2017 figure (estimate of -€ 12m). It has revised this initial estimate considerably since it now forecasts an EBITDA loss of between € 20m and € 25m for 2018.This loss should main...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits : Nouvelle dégradation des perspectives
>Perte EBITDA de 20-25 M€ attendue pour 2018 - Après un S1 en forte chute au niveau de la top line (activités marques -26% au T2 après -19,7% au T1), le groupe révise à la baisse ses prévisions de résultat 2018.Il prévoyait initialement un EBITDA 2018 certes négatif, mais en amélioration par rapport à celui de 2017 (estimation de -12 M€). Il a considérablement revu cette estimation initiale puisqu’il s’attend désormais à une perte EBITDA 2018 comprise entre 20 M€...
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Jerôme Bodin
- Nicolas David
- Salma Bouraoui
- Sven Edelfelt
- Baptiste Lebacq
- Jerôme Bodin
- Nicolas David
- Salma Bouraoui
- Sven Edelfelt
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits : Q2 sales: acceleration in the decline a...
>Reduction in sales in Q2 due to destocking - Following a flattish Q1 including a -20% performance for branded businesses, the group has published Q2 figures showing an acceleration in the decline. Q2 sales fell by 11.4% to €107.9m. The branded business was down by -26% (€51.8m) because of destocking operations.In Europe (-12.5% LFL), the deterioration in the performance was mainly due to the temporary destocking in France and the shortage of Rosé wine. In S...
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits : Q2 sales: acceleration in the decline a...
>Reduction in sales in Q2 due to destocking - Following a flattish Q1 including a -20% performance for branded businesses, the group has published Q2 figures showing an acceleration in the decline. Q2 sales fell by 11.4% to €107.9m. The branded business was down by -26% (€51.8m) because of destocking operations.In Europe (-12.5% LFL), the deterioration in the performance was mainly due to the temporary destocking in France and the shortage of Rosé wine. In S...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
- Johanna Jourdain
- Matthias Desmarais
- Oussema Denguir
- Pierre Tegner
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 07/10/2018
The market will be tempted to play a 40bp contraction (i.e. 5% on the basis of share prices on 6 July) in the risk premium linked to the temporary allaying of concerns about political risk in Europe and a trade war. Opt for 1/ the oil sector, via integrated oil companies, for which 2018 growth is visible (+39% estimated), accelerating and for which the valuation remains reasonable (P/CF 5.9x) and 2/ “defensive†segments overlooked during the period of market stress: food and beer for...
ODDO : We’d rather have a beer!
>Advantage brewers - After two years of sharp underperformance for beers stocks within the beverages sector, the environment has turned more positive for brewers. In contrast, spirits, now trading on very demanding multiples, look exposed to a number of risk factors and their faster pace of growth now looks priced in. On this basis, we are at Buy on the three beer stocks. Valuation-wise, ABI seems to offer the most upside in the short term. ABI (Buy, TP €...
- Fatma Agnès Hamdani
- Johanna Jourdain
- Matthias Desmarais
- Oussema Denguir
- Pierre Tegner
ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 10/07/2018
Le marché sera tenté de jouer un dégonflement de 40 pb (soit 5% de potentiel) de la prime de risque lié à l’apaisement temporaire des craintes relatives au risque politique en Europe et à la guerre commerciale. Privilégier 1/ le secteur pétrolier, via les pétrolières intégrées, dont la croissance 2018 est visible (+39%e), en accélération et la valorisation raisonnable (P/CF 5,9x) et 2/ des segments « défensifs » oubliés lors de la phase de stress du marché : alimentation et...
ODDO : Bière plutôt que spiritueux !
>Un arbitrage en faveur des brasseurs - Après deux ans de sous-performance prononcée des titres de bière au sein du secteur des boissons, le contexte est redevenu plus favorable aux brasseurs. A l’inverse, les spiritueux, désormais très chers, apparaissent sensibles à des facteurs de risque alors que l’accélération de leur croissance est désormais intégrée par le marché. Ainsi, nous sommes à l’Achat sur les trois valeurs de la bière. Cependant, en termes de valorisati...
- Antoine Boivin-Champeaux
- Johanna Jourdain
- Matthias Desmarais
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Yan Derocles
- Youssef Abdelaziz Balti
RNO RENAULT SA
UG PEUGEOT SA
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN SCA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
SW SODEXO SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
AM DASSAULT AVIATION SA
FFP FFP
INTERCO INTERCONTINENTAL INTERNATIONAL
SIC SWISSCANTO (CH) REAL ESTATE FUND IFCA
NSAN NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD. CEDEAR
BVDNV MARIE BRIZARD WINE & SPIRITS
- Nicolas David
- Salma Bouraoui
- Antoine Boivin-Champeaux
- Johanna Jourdain
- Matthias Desmarais
- Michael Foundoukidis
- Yan Derocles
- Youssef Abdelaziz Balti
RNO RENAULT SA
UG PEUGEOT SA
ML COMPAGNIE GENERALE DES ETABLISSEMENTS MICHELIN SCA
EO FAURECIA SA
DAI DAIMLER AG
SW SODEXO SA
TYRES NOKIAN RENKAAT OYJ
AM DASSAULT AVIATION SA
FFP FFP
INTERCO INTERCONTINENTAL INTERNATIONAL
SIC SWISSCANTO (CH) REAL ESTATE FUND IFCA
NSAN NISSAN MOTOR CO. LTD. CEDEAR
BVDNV MARIE BRIZARD WINE & SPIRITS
- Nicolas David
- Salma Bouraoui
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits : Une issue difficile
>Un S1 en recul marqué - Nous sommes toujours en attente des résultats 2017 (report possible jusqu’en octobre) et de la nomination du nouveau CEO. La direction de transition a néanmoins confirmé un EBITDA négatif de 11/12 M€ pour 2017. Les objectifs du plan BIG (triplement de la marge d’EBITDA de 4% à 12% en 2020) ne sont bien-sûr plus du tout d’actualité. Le CA du T1 2018, publié en juin, fait état d’une chute de 20% de l’activité Marques (56% du CA générant plus de ...
Marie Brizard Wine & Spirits : A difficult outcome
>Marked contraction in H1 - We are still awaiting 2017 results (which may potentially be postponed until October) and the appointment of a new CEO. The head of the transition process nonetheless confirmed negative EBITDA of € 11-12m for 2017. The targets of the BIG plan (tripling of the EBITDA margin from 4% to 12% in 2020e) are clearly no longer on the agenda. Q1 2018 sales, reported in June, reflect a 20% contraction in the brands business (56% of sales, generating ...
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