Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks

Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.

Seadrill Ltd. - Premium driller back in business

Fully restructured and net cash At the beginning of a potential multi-year upcycle 4.4x ’23 EV/EBITDA and 38% disc. to NAV - BUY

Seadrill Ltd. - Terminating coverage

ABGSC terminates coverage of Seadrill SELL is our final recommendation NOK 1 is our final target price

Sector Report - Q1 preview: Market remains muted

Sector Report - No general recovery, but signs of life in 2021

Estimate up on oil price and JS performance New projects on top of the agenda We stick to

Seadrill Ltd. - The Chapter 11 race continues

Seadrill Partners files for bankruptcy Another round of forbearance agreements We expect Q4’20 EBITDA of USD 17m

Sector Report - The oil price will not stay flat for long

Temp. tax regime fuels near-term cash flow Refinanced, no debt maturities before 2024 NAV-accretive projects could pop up – BUY

Sector Fast Comment - Attention all offshore drillers

Valaris files for chapter 11 Transocean’s share price tumbles A prisoner’s dilemma in the making

Sector Report - State of the Rig union – Q2’20

KFELS initiates arbitration Two capex decisions coming up in H1’21 Run-off scenarios point to NOK 3-19 per share

Seadrill Ltd. - Burning cash

We expect Q2 EBITDA of USD 29m Comprehensive restructuring in the making Rig scrapping ahead

Talking Points - Seadrill Ltd. (Sell): No more kicking the can

Delisting from NYSE Down to SELL, TP NOK 1.0 (5.0)

Seadrill Ltd. - No more kicking the can

Comprehensive restructuring in the making Delisting from NYSE Down to SELL, TP NOK 1.0 (5.0)

Due to a more favourable environment, SEADRILL LTD. slightly increases...

SEADRILL LTD. (NO), a company active in the Oil Equipment & Services industry, slightly increases its general evaluation. The independent financial analyst theScreener just confirmed the stock market behaviour of the title as risky. At the fundamental level, theScreener confirms the rating of 1 out of 4 stars; given the more favourable environment, the title's overall rating is upgraded to Slightly Negative even if it remains under pressure. As of the analysis date May 26, 2020, the closing pric...

Sector Fast Comment - Offshore drillers: 37 billion shades of debt

~USD 37bn in debt against ~USD 2.3bn in Mcap… …means more filings are coming… …but the industry needs more than that

Sector Fast Comment - Offshore drillers: Diamond blinks first

Diamond Offshore files for bankruptcy No pre-pack, and may be no support Others to follow

Sector Report - Here we go again

Massive estimates cuts; DPS might be suspended … but the balance sheet is not at risk BUY reiterated, TP NOK 160 (345)

Seadrill Ltd. - Facing a Herculean task

Ongoing discussions with creditors No debt amortisation in 2020 TP down to NOK 5 (10), reiterate HOLD

Seadrill Ltd. - No news from the banks

Q4 EBITDA in line No news on discussions with banks Liquidity at ~USD 1.4bn

Sector Fast Comment - Offshore drillers: It's time to remove the pink ...

The first Diamond ain't pretty Turning cash flow negative Peers to follow, tough decisions coming up

Sector Report - Q4’19 reports likely to be mixed

Q4e EBITDA of USD 763m, in line with cons Likely positive news flow ahead A top pick in the oil and oil service space