BioGaia AB: 1 director

A director at BioGaia AB sold 3,165,138 shares at 108.100SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 100/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly...

Mix took another leap

Solid EBIT in soft end-markets

Volume signals mixed, EBIT/kg story intact

Terminating coverage

Mix improved further

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Still-solid CBE appetite

Q4 marked a strong end to 2024, with 19% growth in adj. EBIT YOY (following 43% in 2023), well above the full-year guidance of >10%. Although there were signs of weaker end-consumer demand in the wider chocolate market in Q4, we expect strong demand for cocoa butter equivalents (CBEs) in 2025 and AAK’s new contracts to be supportive of earnings on our view that price/mix is likely to offset weaker volumes. We reiterate our BUY and SEK370 target price.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Neutral Q4 results

We consider this a neutral report for AAK, including slightly better Q4 results, but with lower-than-expected volumes as EBIT growth was driven by better than expected EBIT/kg results. We expect limited changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBIT and a neutral share-price reaction following the results.

Further mix improvements, but volumes lower

Up to BUY on better visibility

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Set for another rich CBE year

We are neutral ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:30 CET on 5 February), as we are in line with consensus on adj. EBIT. However, given cocoa prices reaching new all-time highs in the past few weeks, and AAK’s position in CBEs and its strong balance sheet, we continue to like the case. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK370 (360), mainly due to increased estimates.

Probi AB: 1 director

A director at Probi AB bought 33,086 shares at 350.000SEK and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly sho...

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - 2030 targets in focus

We are positive ahead of the CMD, scheduled to begin at 09:00 CET on 26 November, expecting AAK to raise its 2030 EBIT/kg target to >SEK3/kg and reiterate its ambition to outgrow the market in volumes and >10% EBIT growth p.a. We find consensus 2025–2026e EBIT low, at c3–5%, and believe clarity on structural margin improvements would be positive. We also expect focus on capital allocation, with AAK set to be net cash positive in early 2025e. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

6% FCF yield while waiting for a recovery

Q3: Softer than expected on nearly all line items

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK360.00) - Strong prices lead to good profits

Q3 marked yet another strong quarter for AAK, with EBIT/kg above its 2030 ambition for the fifth quarter in a row along with continue strong volumes growth, especially for its CCF business, driven by cocoa butter alternatives. With cocoa prices still at record highs, we expect AAK to still benefit from this going into 2025. We reiterate our BUY and SEK360 target price.

Another jump in CCF EBIT/kg

Volume growth all over, but approaching tougher comps

AAK divests North American foodservice

Managing costs well in Q3