Both M&A and buybacks could be possible

Q4: starts share buybacks

Volume recovery might have to wait

BioGaia AB: 2 directors

Two Directors at BioGaia AB bought 7,000 shares at between 97.700SEK and 98.000SEK. The significance rating of the trade was 51/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last...

Taking matters into its own hands

Uneventful, as expected

Not necessarily worse before it gets better

On track toward better mix

Q2: better volume growth q-o-q, 6% EBIT beat

Fatter margins on leaner volumes

Mix took another leap

Solid EBIT in soft end-markets

Volume signals mixed, EBIT/kg story intact

Terminating coverage

Mix improved further

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Still-solid CBE appetite

Q4 marked a strong end to 2024, with 19% growth in adj. EBIT YOY (following 43% in 2023), well above the full-year guidance of >10%. Although there were signs of weaker end-consumer demand in the wider chocolate market in Q4, we expect strong demand for cocoa butter equivalents (CBEs) in 2025 and AAK’s new contracts to be supportive of earnings on our view that price/mix is likely to offset weaker volumes. We reiterate our BUY and SEK370 target price.

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Neutral Q4 results

We consider this a neutral report for AAK, including slightly better Q4 results, but with lower-than-expected volumes as EBIT growth was driven by better than expected EBIT/kg results. We expect limited changes to consensus 2025e adj. EBIT and a neutral share-price reaction following the results.

Further mix improvements, but volumes lower

Up to BUY on better visibility

AAK (Buy, TP: SEK370.00) - Set for another rich CBE year

We are neutral ahead of the Q4 results (due at 08:30 CET on 5 February), as we are in line with consensus on adj. EBIT. However, given cocoa prices reaching new all-time highs in the past few weeks, and AAK’s position in CBEs and its strong balance sheet, we continue to like the case. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to SEK370 (360), mainly due to increased estimates.