Telecommunications - 1Q25 Results Largely In Line; Mobile Competition ...

1Q25 Results Largely In Line; Mobile Competition Remains Intense 1Q25 sector earnings rose 5% qoq but fell 3% yoy driven by stable postpaid revenue, robust enterprise revenue and good cost control. Prepaid earnings were adversely impacted by intense unlimited data offerings. Broadly, earnings came in within expectations except for Axiata. After the results, we trim sector earnings by 7%. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT; catalysts include Axiata’s monetisation of EDOTCO and CelcomDigi’s synergistic saving...

Expert speaker call: latent market share gains

Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) - 1Q25: Below Expectations; Earnings Pressure...

1Q25: Below Expectations; Earnings Pressure Seen In Key Markets Axiata reported a weak 1Q25 underlying net profit of RM123m (-27% yoy; -18% qoq) on the back of: a) a decline in opco revenue contribution, b) earnings dilution from the XLSmart merger, and c) structural changes to Link Net’s business model. Results were below expectations and we cut our 2025 net profit forecast by 7%. Towerco monetisation is likely to happen this year. The stock offers a decent yield of 4.9%. Maintain BUY with an S...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, May 30, 2025

GREATER CHINA Strategy Small-Mid Cap Monthly: 2H25 outlook: Eyeing domestic plays and names with potential turnaround. Sector Automobile: Weekly: Is there an Evergrand in the China auto sector? Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: Geely and XPeng. Results CSPC Pharmaceutical Group (1093 HK/HOLD/HK$7.62/Target: HK$7.70): 1Q25: Results miss; expects enhanced pipelines to secure major BD deals. Li Auto Inc (2015 HK/BUY/HK$108.20/Target: HK$145.00): 1Q25: Earnings and forward guidance mi...

Telenor ASA: 1 director

A director at Telenor ASA bought 3,247 shares at 154.000NOK and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly s...

True EBITDA flat q-o-q, but above ABGSC

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK142.00) - Mixed set of results

While Telenor reported decent Q1 headline results adjusted for a one-off VAT provision in Norway, slightly above consensus and our estimates, the FCF beat was seemingly driven by lower-quality transitory tailwinds, leaving us still uncertain about its ability to cover its dividends with underlying FCF before M&A this year and in 2026. Thus, given our view of a stretched company and sector valuation, we reiterate our SELL, while we have raised our target price to NOK142 (140).

Stretched valuation and likely slowdown ahead

Strategy - Opportunities In A Ringgit Resurgence Environment

Opportunities In A Ringgit Resurgence Environment The sharp ringgit appreciation driven by de-dollarisation and thus a broader reallocation of capital toward emerging market currencies support our view of a moderate upside for Malaysian equities. Key beneficiaries include importers and companies with high US dollar debt, while exporters may face margin pressure. While historical parallel suggests temporary trading opportunities, we recommend a tactical trading stance, focusing on value-driven op...

Telenor (Buy, TP: NOK 183, +17%) Q1 25: Strong results support contin...

Telenor has reported a good set of Q1 numbers, with SR c0.5% ahead of consensus and EBITDA in line; 2025 guidance was re-iterated, which is now in line with consensus expectations, but we think this could be raised later in the year if the further OpEx efficiencies management are expecting are realised.

Coffee, Croissants & Credit/Telenor, Heimstaden Bostad, Castellum

Telecom - Telenor reports good 1Q25 results

Nordics above, but other segments below

Axiata Group (AXIATA MK) - Assessing Potential Stake Sale Of Edotco

Assessing Potential Stake Sale Of Edotco There have been media reports of a potential stake sale of Axiata’s 63% equity stake in edotco. At 10-12x EV/EBITDA sale multiple, Axiata stands to benefit from an equity illumination of RM7b-9b. A stake sale is also deemed earnings accretive, and will lift our 2025 profit forecast by 8-18% as the notional interest savings are greater than the loss of a profit stream from edotco. Maintain BUY. Target price: RM2.50. The stock yields 4.8%. A key risk is wid...

Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Monday, May 05, 2025

INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperformance In Apr 25 Remove ICBP, EXCL, and MIKA; add BBTN and GOTO. MALAYSIA Sector Property Amid tariff overhang concerns, we favour companies with clear earnings visibility, solid exposure to affordable housing, and clear re-rating catalysts. Maintain OVERWEIGHT. Update Axiata (AXIATA MK/BUY/RM2.09/Target: RM2.50) ...

Telecommunications - A Defensive Bet; Rational Competition In The Near...

A Defensive Bet; Rational Competition In The Near Term In a risk-off environment, the sector has outperformed the FBMKLCI by 8% ytd. Our recent channel checks suggest competition is rational and telcos are likely to focus on profitability and cash flow. We expect an above-market dividend yield of 5% while sector earnings are expected to grow 4% and 6% in 2025 and 2026 respectively. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT as we watch for pockets of catalysts including monetisation of edotco by Axiata and CelcomDi...

Telenor (Sell, TP: NOK140.00) - Q1e slightly below consensus

We have made only limited estimate changes (except for an accounting change for the treatment of write-offs in associates) and are slightly below consensus on Q1e revenues, service revenues, adj. EBITDA, net profit and FCF. With Nordics opex cuts looking set to be back-end loaded this year, we expect Q1 to be a relatively uneventful quarter. We will look for more clarity on lower-quality cash flow tailwinds with regard to Telenor’s ability to cover its dividends with FCF before M&A this year, wh...