A director at Singapore Telecommunications Ltd bought 150,000 shares at 3.873SGD and the significance rating of the trade was 93/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the las...
It was another very strong month for our picks as the EM Telco bull market continues. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be, and the market has now started to understand this. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
For 1Q25, the sector’s muted 1.7% yoy earnings growth was within expectations, underpinned by strong contributions from Singtel’s regional associates and better overall cost discipline. Moving into 2Q25, we expect similar sector earnings growth, largely driven by Singtel and NetLink. We like Singtel for its regional exposure, Starhub as the main beneficiary of market consolidation and NetLink for its defensive earnings, supported by the sector’s attractive dividend yields. Maintain OVERWEIGHT.
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
GREATER CHINA Sector Automobile Weekly: PEV sales dip slightly wow. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the sector. Top BUYs: BYD, Geely and XPeng. Results Lenovo Group (992 HK/BUY/HK$9.57/Target: HK$12.10) 4QFY25: Core business is solid, but bottom line impacted by non-core items. Update Shenzhou International Group Holdings (2313 HK/BUY/HK$56.90/Target: HK$85.60) Expect unchanged 10% order volume growth for 2025;...
Singtel remains confident it can deliver double-digit ROIC in FY26-27. Key drivers are: a) better profitability from its core mobile businesses; b) strong contributions from its regional associates; and c) better execution from NCS and Nxera. The group has raised its identifiable capital recycling pot from S$6b to S$9b, which we believe will lead to higher dividends and total shareholder return. In turn, this will help to narrow Singtel's holding company discount. Maintain BUY. Raise SOTP-based ...
As we hoped, Singtel has (finally) announced up to S$2bn (US$1.55bn) in share buybacks over the next three years until FY28. Additionally, this year’s dividend per share rose by 13% to S17.0 cents (includes S4.7cents VRD vs S3.8 in FY24).
We met with all 3 of the Korean Telcos in Seoul over the last couple of days. All 3 remain committed to “Value-up”. However, far the biggest impact is on KT who’s cash flow is dramatically improving. LG is also likely to have a strong year, and we think profitability has turned a corner.
KT reported strong profit growth as it benefits from the hefty headcount reduction programme undertaken in Q4, and despite a softer topline, a result of its conscious effort to shift away from lower-margin B2B businesses. Both EBITDA (+12%) and EBIT (+36%) were up sharply. None of this is reflected in the valuation of 8x FY25 P/E and 4.4% dividend yield, the stock remains one of our Top Picks with a KRW 85,000 price target.
LG Uplus printed a solid profit beat, ahead of expectations by 7% on better service revenue and EBITDA inflecting back to growth, as margins were better managed this quarter. We continue to believe its shareholder remuneration is attractive (5.6% dividend yield + potential buyback announcement in 2Q25). We stay Buyers with a KRW 19k price target.
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
Despite global volatility our EM Top Picks posted positive returns again in April and now up 34% YTD on average. As we have been arguing for some time EM Telco is a much better space than it used to be and this is now being reflected by the market it seems.
Against weak comps, trends improved, but fundamentally the picture remains challenged. The announced share buyback (IDR 3trn, 1.2% of outstanding) is welcome but probably won’t on its own be sufficient to turn the picture around. PT Telkom has disappointed with headwinds outside of Java and in Indihome. We remain Buyers on valuation but there is little in the trends here to suggest an operational turnaround is close.
Chinese Telcos saw service revenue return to mid-single digits growth in 4Q24. Despite a blip in EBITDA trend, the industry ended 2024 with 6% earnings growth which translated to higher dividend payouts (CM: 73%, CT: 72%, CU: 60%).
GREATER CHINA Strategy China And Hong Kong Property & Hong Kong Landlord Tariffs curtail US rate cuts, thereby hindering the recovery of Hong Kong property and tourism; Maintain OVERWEIGHT on China property. INDONESIA Strategy Alpha Picks: Outperform In Mar 25 Remove BBNI, BBRI, ASII, JSMR and KLBF; add BBCA, ICBP, ERAA and BUKA. MALAYSIA Update Pekat Group (PEKAT MK/BUY/RM1.08/Target: RM1.45) Good earnings visibility over 2025...
The selloff driven by the US’ unprecedented and perplexing tariff plans has liberated many investors of profits this year. Given the fluidity of market conditions, we highlight a number of domestic-focused stocks such as CENT, CD, DFI, HLA, PANU, PROP, RFMD, SSG and SIE as well as Singapore-focused REITS such as CDLHT, FEHT, FCT, KREIT, LREIT and PREIT. In addition, the MAS’ equity market review should inject much needed liquidity in 2H25. We lower our STI target to 3,720 (previously 4,115).
A director at LG Uplus maiden bought 5,000 shares at 10,333.580KRW and the significance rating of the trade was 69/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years cl...
No doubt investors are busy fighting fires. But additional to our thoughts from last week we thought it might be helpful to offer 3 further action points for investors in EM & Japanese Telcos that we would be taking in response to market turmoil. Very brief thoughts below.
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