reports
- Chris Hoare
GEM Telcos: Consolidation – THE theme driving improved trends for EM T...
Earlier this month we published on how Global EM Telco Capex is falling rapidly, in large part driven by consolidation. On average EM Telco markets have fallen from a peak of 7 players to under 3. We expect many to end up with 2, or even a single network. How much further far might this cut capex?
- Chris Hoare
IHS Towers (Buy, TP: $7.7, +41%) – Q1 25: Strong start to the year; Rw...
IHS Towers has reported a strong set of result. Revenue and EBITDA came in above consensus by quite some margin and Q1 numbers trended above the FY25 guide across the board. The company has also announced the sale of its Operations in Rwanda.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 1Q25: EBITDA Stable At -0.8% qoq
In 1Q25, the combined EBITDA of Indonesia’s big telcos dropped 6% yoy, but was stable qoq. Combined 1Q25 NPAT was also slightly lower (2% yoy). Among the big three telcos, ISAT and Telkomsel (majority owned by TLKM) gained market share in 1Q25 (based on EBITDA) vs 4Q24. We are monitoring TLKM’s upcoming AGM (27 May) as we expect a potential dividend yield of around 7% (assuming an 80% payout). Maintain MARKET WEIGHT on the telecommunications sector with ISAT as our top pick.
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos Capex in steep decline; underpins EFCF growth
We analyze the capex history & outlook for Global EM Telcos. For this group capex is falling rapidly (-12% in 2024 in US$) as competitive intensity improves and markets consolidate. Excluding China and India, EM Telco capex is already down 23% from peak.
- Felix Fischer
Asia Monthly – April 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in April 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
00603 ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
01668 WYNN MACAU LTD.
WFG1 CHINA SOUTH CITY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SCNR WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
01030 SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
JFC ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
KIJA JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
- Chris Hoare
Mitratel (Buy, IDR 1,135, +90%) Q1 25 Quick Take: Slow start
Mitratel saw a slower start to the year than expected as Tower trends softened on lower ARP/Tenant. While Fiber remained the key driver, it was partially offset by the natural decline of its Reseller business. EBITDA growth was also slower while earnings managed a 1% growth.
- Paula Ruth
Telecommunications – 4Q24: NPAT Down Slightly By 2% yoy
Big Telcos’ 4Q24 EBITDA was roughly stable (-0.2%) qoq, but declined slightly by 4% yoy Meanwhile, combined 4Q24 net profit fell slightly by 2% yoy, but rose 11% qoq. During 4Q24, EXCL slightly increased its market share (based on EBITDA) among the top three telcos. We downgrade the telecommunications sector to MARKET WEIGHT from OVERWEIGHT as we expect TLKM, the parent company of Telkomsel (market leader), to book only a slightly moderate top-line growth of 2% yoy in 2025. Our top pick is ISAT.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Bella Lu Yifei
- Benjaphol Suthwanish
- Carol Dou Xiao Qin
- Jack Goh Tooan Orng
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Ken Lee
- Ming San Soong
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Sunny Chen
- Thanawat Thangchadakorn
Regional Morning Meeting Notes: Friday, April 25, 2025
GREATER CHINA Results Aier Eye Hospital Group (300015 CH/BUY/Rmb12.72/Target: Rmb17.80) 2024: Satisfactory results; expects strong recovery in 2025. Upgrade to BUY. Ningbo Tuopu Group Co (601689 CH/BUY/Rmb50.96/Target: Rmb83.00) 4Q24: Earnings up 38.5% yoy, in line. Maintain BUY with target price unchanged at Rmb83.00. TAL Educational Group (TAL US/BUY/US$9.36/Target: US$14.00) 4QFY25: Earnings miss amid ramped-up investments in AI-powered learning. INDONESIA Sector Telecommun...
IZZ TAL EDUCATION GROUP SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
KKP KIATNAKIN BANK
BBL BANGKOK BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
ISAT INDOSAT
TISCO TISCO FINANCIAL GROUP
300015 AIER EYE HOSPITAL GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TOWR PT SARANA MENARA NUSANTARA TBK
TMB TMB BANK PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
KBANK KASIKORNBANK PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BH BUMRUNGRAD HOSPITAL PUBLIC CO. LTD.
BBCA PT BANK CENTRAL ASIA TBK
BN4 KEPPEL CORPORATION LIMITED
TLKM PT TELKOM INDONESIA (PERSERO) TBK CLASS B
601689 NINGBO TUOPU GROUP CO. LTD. CLASS A
TCAP THANACHART CAPITAL PCL
MLT MAPLETREE LOGISTICS TRUST
MYEG MY EG SERVICES BHD
KTB KONTOOR BRANDS
EXCL XL AXIATA TBK PT
SCB SCB X PUBLIC COMPANY LIMITED
MTEL IJ PT DAYAMITRA TELEKOMUNIKASI
- Maskun Ramli
- Paula Ruth
- Posmarito Pakpahan
Indonesia Daily - Friday, April 25, 2025
Telecommunications: 4Q24: NPAT down slightly by 2% yoy. Downgrade to MARKET WEIGHT. Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ/BUY/Rp8,475/Target: Rp10,500): 1Q25: Net profit grows 9.8% yoy on the back of NIM expansion. TRADERS’ CORNER Pertamina Geothermal Energy (PGEO IJ): Technical BUY Indosat (ISAT IJ): Technical BUY
- Felix Fischer
Asia Trade Book - April 2025 - Lucror Analytics
The Asia Trade Book for April 2025 includes a summary of our recommendations, as well as our high-conviction ideas. The report also features relative-value charts and lists of the bonds across Asia HY and crossover credits. Please reach out to our analysts to discuss any of these ideas, or other trade recommendations from our Asia coverage.
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
00603 ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
01668 WYNN MACAU LTD.
WFG1 CHINA SOUTH CITY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SCNR WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
01030 SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
JFC ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
KIJA JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
- Chris Hoare
IHS (Buy, TP: US$7.7, +80%) - Investor Call Feedback - 31st March 2025
We had a bullish call last week with IHS CFO, Steve Howden, and Head of IR Robert Berg. Despite tariff-related chaos the stock has performed well recently (+50% ytd) reflecting the better environment in Nigeria as well as action the company itself has taken to improve value, but we still think it looks undervalued and retain our Buy recommendation and US$7.7 price target.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Felix Fischer
Asia Monthly – March 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in March 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on dev...
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
00603 ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
01668 WYNN MACAU LTD.
WFG1 CHINA SOUTH CITY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SCNR WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
01030 SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
JFC ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
KIJA JOLLIBEE FOODS CORP.
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Sarana Menara Nusantara (Buy, IDR 1,500, +156%) Q4 24 Quick Take: Supp...
Numbers were decent off its higher growth adjacent businesses where non-Tower contribution now stands at 33% of sales. While near-term tower headwind is anticipated now that the merger between XL and Smartfren is approved, TOWR’s exposure to FTTT and FTTH should act as support as telcos expand into the home broadband and into rural Indonesia.
- Chris Hoare
- Felix Fischer
Asia Monthly – February 2025 In Review - Lucror Analytics
In our latest Asia Monthly, we discuss the performance of major Asian credit indices and review UST curve movements in February 2025. We also provide a recap of major news and macroeconomic releases, including those from the US, China, India, Indonesia and Japan. In addition, we summarise the top/bottom performers, recent USD bond issuances and rating actions in Asian corporate credit, as well as a list of our recent research. The Asia Monthly publication serves to keep investors updated on ...
M04 MGM CHINA HOLDINGS LIMITED
MAS MELCO RESORTS & ENTERTAINMENT LIMITED SPONSORED ADR
JSWSTEEL JSW STEEL LIMITED
00813 SHIMAO GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
XGH CHINA WATER AFFAIRS GROUP LIMITED
00817 ENN ENERGY HOLDINGS LIMITED
CHINA JINMAO HOLDINGS GROUP LIMITED
01238 CENTRAL CHINA REAL ESTATE LIMITED
00992 POWERLONG REAL ESTATE HOLDINGS LTD.
VED LENOVO GROUP LIMITED
02777 VEDANTA RESOURCES PLC
03383 GUANGZHOU R&F PROPERTIES CO. LTD. CLASS H
TATASTEEL AGILE GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
4755 TATA STEEL LIMITED
MEDC RAKUTEN INC.
ICT PT MEDCO ENERGI INTERNASIONAL TBK
01098 INTERNATIONAL CONTAINER TERMINAL SERVICES INC.
00603 ROAD KING INFRASTRUCTURE LIMITED
OL5 CHINA OIL & GAS GROUP LTD.
Z25 SHUI ON LAND LTD.
SXC YANLORD LAND GROUP LIMITED
03377 SUNNY OPTICAL TECHNOLOGY (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00880 SINO-OCEAN GROUP HOLDING LTD.
INDY SJM HOLDINGS LIMITED
8WY PT INDIKA ENERGY TBK
01668 WYNN MACAU LTD.
WFG1 CHINA SOUTH CITY HOLDINGS LIMITED
SCNR WEST CHINA CEMENT LTD.
01030 SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD.
00884 SEAZEN GROUP LTD.
JPFA CIFI HOLDINGS (GROUP) CO. LTD.
00142 JAPFA COMFEED INDONESIA
600803 FIRST PACIFIC CO. LTD.
KIJA ENN ECOLOGICAL HOLDINGS (A)
BIOCON PT KAWASAN INDUSTRI JABABEKA TBK CLASS A
9984 BIOCON LIMITED
SM SOFTBANK GROUP CORP.
00405 SM INVESTMENTS CORPORATION
KOU YUEXIU REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
VLL KWG GROUP HOLDINGS LIMITED
00656 VISTA LAND & LIFESCAPES INC.
ADANIPORTS FOSUN INTERNATIONAL LIMITED
PWON ADANI PORTS & SPECIAL ECONOMIC ZONE LTD.
ICBP PT PAKUWON JATI TBK
TBIG PT INDOFOOD CBP SUKSES MAKMUR TBK
599A PT TOWER BERSAMA INFRASTRUCTURE TBK
TATAMOTORS SANDS CHINA LTD.
ADANITRANS TATA MOTORS LIMITED
POWR ADANI TRANSMISSION LTD.
AZRE PT CIKARANG LISTRINDO TBK
01112 AZURE POWER GLOBAL LTD.
VHM HEALTH AND HAPPINESS (H&H) INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED
MSC VINHOMES
ADANIGREEN STUDIO CITY INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS ADS
00017 ADANI GREEN ENERGY LIMITED
RNW NEW WORLD DEVELOPMENT CO. LTD.
PGEO RENEW ENERGY GLOBAL PLC
PT. PERTAMINA GEOTHERMAL ENERGY
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers NSR GEM Top-10 March ‘25 Update: February a...
February was another good month for our top EM Telcos, now up 15% YTD on average. This note also includes key news & other thoughts in order to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space. With performance strong so far, we make no changes to our picks.
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