reports
- Chris Hoare
Global EM Telcos & Towers – Strong start – NSR GEM Top-10 February ‘26...
Our portfolio of Top Picks has started 2026 strongly, up 6% ytd already. This month we make no changes to our top picks. This note also includes key news & other thoughts, to try to help investors generate alpha within the EM Telco space.
- Chris Hoare
Mexican Cable/FTTH Megacable the clear outperformer in Q3; Q3 25 revi...
Q3 was a slightly slower quarter for the Mexican Broadband market from a top line and EBITDA growth perspective. However, subscriber net adds remained decent, in line with the previous quarters. Financially, Megacable was the clear outperformer in Q3 with double-digit revenue and EBITDA growth and widened the gap with peers.
- Chris Hoare
LatAm Telcos Outlook 2026 – Consolidation moves to broadband + Millic...
Fundamentals continue to look pretty good to us in Latin America, with market repair continuing across wireless markets, and further consolidation likely. Despite a strong 2025, valuations still look compelling across the region in our view too. Top picks: Liberty Latin America, Vivo, AMX and Megacable. We also upgrade our Millicom pt to $70.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Televisa (Neutral, TP: $2.3, -3%) Better broadband KPIs and nice EPS ...
Televisa has reported a mixed set of Q2 results after the close yesterday. Revenue came in slightly below consensus expectations while OSI came in roughly in line. The small revenue miss was driven by Sky which saw a further deterioration in trends this quarter. EPS beat nicely, mainly driven by TVUNI which posted a better quarter. Perhaps the highlight this quarter is the Broadband net adds which were positive (+6k).
- Chris Hoare
Televisa (Neutral, TP: $2.3, +7%) Debt downgrade / TelevisaUnivision: ...
Moody’s has downgraded Televisa’s senior unsecured ratings to Ba1 from Baa3 and assigned a Ba1 corporate family rating; the outlook remains negative. TelevisaUnivision has announced a proposed $1bn refinancing and preliminary Q2 25.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Televisa (Neutral, TP: $2.3, +22%) Q1 25: Small beat at OSI and solid...
Televisa reported Q1’s after close yesterday. Revenue came in in line with consensus and our expectations while OSI slightly beat consensus and our forecasts. Broadband net adds came in slightly better than consensus but remained in negative territory.
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
- Chris Hoare
Televisa (Neutral, TP: $3.1, +50%) Q4 24: Solid FCF but weak fundamen...
Televisa reported Q4’s after close. Cable revenue and OSI were broadly as expected but KPIs were weak this quarter, with broadband net adds back into negative territory. Focus remains on FCF rather than growing the base, helped by relatively low cable capex this year.
- Soomit Datta
- Soomit Datta
TV US (Neutral, TP: $3.5,) Televisa Q2 24 - Cost (and maybe capex?) t...
Televisa reported Q2’s after close. Trends were broadly as expected, with focus on FCF rather than growing the base, meaning revenue momentum slipped further (-6% y/y from -5% in Q1) on the back of limited broadband adds (in contrast to peers like AMX) as well as a video subs disconnection. Operating segment income improved a touch (still down 8% y/y) and with the prospect of DTH/cable synergies coming through from Q3.
- Soomit Datta
AMX(Buy, TP: $24, +24%) Televisa (Neutral, $3.5, +11%) Megacable (Neut...
The market continued to eek out broadband growth in Q1, with Megacable leading the charge. We applaud management’s execution here and the double digit revenue and EBITDA growth, though this now seems embedded in expectations; we think it’s time to close out Megacable stock gains (30% YTD), trading on a 5.5% EFCF yield for 2025. Our target remains MXN55, though we have taken out the probability of cable-cable deal synergies, offset by upgrades following Q1s.
- Soomit Datta
Mexican Cable/FTTH – Capex down, promotions lifting; Buy MEGA; TV/TPLA...
Following TotalPlay and Televisa results at the end of last week, and Megacable the week prior, we highlight key positive conclusions from the Mexican reporting season: 1/ Capex is coming down across the board in Mexico in FY 24 driving an uplift in OpFCF margin for all players, 2/ Lower promotional intensity through YE is helping ARPUs and would be supportive if it holds.
- Soomit Datta
MEGA (Buy, TP: MXN55, +20%) Megacable Q4s - The big capex unwind star...
Megacable reported good Q4s last night with strong broadband adds, revenue growth accelerating (to 14% y/y on core cable/FTTH) and perhaps most supportively EBITDA on core returning to 12% growth on new build operational leverage; EBITDA was flat only a couple of quarters go and the guide is for margin expansion in FY 24 and beyond (ahead of us and the market).
- Soomit Datta
TV (Neutral, TP: $3.7, +17%) Televisa – Spin Co support for M&A; TVUN...
Ahead of the spin of its non-core assets next week (Feb 20th) we highlight the impact to Televisa: potentially an ex-div move of up to $0.5 per ADR (assuming SpinCo trades at 4x EBITDA, in-line with our implied valuation). Cleaning up the business would be a helpful move ahead of potential M&A (with Megacable). We also run through TVUNI (>100% of target TV equity) Q4 results yesterday, feeling the headwinds of a tough comp in the 2022 World Cup, but with a better outlook for 2024 where we think...
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