reports
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
China Internet: Rewarding shareholders in 2023; emerging strategic gro...
Given the stabilising revenue growth and abundant cash on hand, mega-cap internet companies have been focusing on offering generous shareholder returns. For 2024, we expect consumption behaviour to switch to service and experience, which will continue to benefit OTA players. We believe other China internet names will outperform with overseas expansion and SFV players will continue to gain market shares with potential for take rate increases. Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
JD JD.COM INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
K3SD BAIDU INC SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
A117ME ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD. SPONSORED ADR
3K1 KINGSOFT CORP. LTD.
00700 TENCENT HOLDINGS LTD.
PDD PINDUODUO INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
03690 MEITUAN CLASS B
00780 TONGCHENG-ELONG HOLDINGS LIMITED
TCOM TRIP.COM GROUP LTD. SPONSORED ADR
BEKE KE HOLDINGS INC. SPONSORED ADR CLASS A
09988 ALIBABA GROUP HOLDING LTD.
09999 NETEASE INC
09618 JD.COM INC. CLASS A
01024 KUAISHOU TECHNOLOGY CLASS B
09888 PINDUODUO PDD US
02423 BAIDU INC
09961 KE HOLDINGS INC.
CTRIP.COM INTERNATIONAL
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Meituan (3690 HK): 4Q23: In line; margins pressured by lacklustre AOV ...
Meituan delivered solid 4Q23 results. Total revenue grew 23% yoy to Rmb73.7b, in line with consensus estimate. Non-IFRS net profit was Rmb4.4b, which translated to a non- GAAP net profit margin of 6%, well above consensus estimate. For 2024, we think the key concerns remain the competition in ISHT and moderating food delivery AOV, mainly dampened by the weak macro environment and stiff competition. Maintain HOLD with a higher target price of HK$80.00.
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Kong Ho Meng
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Monday, March 25, 2024
GREATER CHINA Results Longfor (960 HK/BUY/HK$10.18/Target: HK$12.71): 2023: Better earnings mix and debt structure; continues to optimise development model in 2024. Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$88.25/Target: HK$80.00): 4Q23: In line; margins pressured by lacklustre AOV and competition in in-store business. Orient Overseas (International) (316 HK/HOLD/HK$99.70/Target: HK$107.70): 2023: Results missed on margin pressure; share price more fairly valued after a sharp 16.7% decline post results. Upgrade ...
AMATA AMATA CORP
T13 LONGFOR GROUP HOLDINGS LTD.
RLF ORIENT OVERSEAS (INTERNATIONAL) LIMITED
ORI1 FIRST REAL ESTATE INVESTMENT TRUST
AW9U VSTECS
5162 PING AN INSURANCE (GROUP) COMPANY OF CHINA LTD. CLASS H
2318 MEITUAN CLASS B
03690 YINSON HOLDINGS BHD
YNS RH PETROGAS
RHP SUN HUNG KAI & CO LTD
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Kate Luang
- Kenny Yong Hui Lim
- Ming San Soong
- Roy Chen Chengzhi
Greater China Daily: Monday, March 25, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Results Longfor (960 HK/BUY/HK$10.18/Target: HK$12.71) 2023: Better earnings mix and debt structure; continues to optimise development model in 2024. Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$88.25/Target: HK$80.00) 4Q23: In line; margins pressured by lacklustre AOV and competition in in-store business. Orient Overseas (International) (316 HK/HOLD/HK$99.70/Target: HK$107.70) 2023: Results missed on margin pressure; share price more fairly valued after a sharp 16.7% decline post results. Upgra...
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Meituan (3690 HK): 4Q23 results preview: Pressured margins given persi...
Despite the solid consumption momentum of Spring Festival 2024, we remain cautious on Meituan moving into 2024, as we see a few potential downside risks including: a) shrinking operating margin in ISHT due to aggressive competition from Douyin, b) moderating FD order volume growth, and c) a lukewarm macro environment. We saw a shift in the valuation methodology for Metiuan from SOTP to PE due to an overall slower revenue growth. Downgrade to HOLD and lower our target price to HK$70.00.
- Damon Shen
- Greater China Research Team
- Jieqi Liu
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Ming San Soong
Greater China Daily: Wednesday, February 21, 2024
KEY HIGHLIGHTS Sector Property A closer look at China’s property market: Takeaways from project visits in Shenzhen/Guangzhou/Shanghai/Suzhou. Update Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$72.75/Target: HK$70.00) 4Q23 results preview: Pressured margins given persisting headwinds and competition. Downgrade to HOLD. TRADERS’ CORNER Guangdong Investment Limited (270 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$4.60-4.70 Pacific Basin Shipping Limited (2343 HK): Trading Buy range: HK$2.10-2.25
- Adrian Loh Tzum Yung
- Chong Lee Len
- Damon Shen
- Desmond Chong Chee Wai
- Jacquelyn Yow Hui Li
- Jieqi Liu
- Jonathan Koh
- Julia Pan Mengyao
- Jun Sian Tan
- Kampon Akaravarinchai
- Kasemsun Koonnara
- Leow Huey Chuen
- Ming San Soong
- Posmarito Pakpahan
- Tanaporn Visaruthaphong
- Wei Xiang Ku
Regional Morning Notes - Wednesday, February 21, 2024
GREATER CHINA Sector Property: A closer look at China’s property market: Takeaways from project visits in Shenzhen/Guangzhou/Shanghai/Suzhou. Update Meituan (3690 HK/HOLD/HK$72.75/Target: HK$70.00): 4Q23 results preview: Pressured margins given persisting headwinds and competition. Downgrade to HOLD. INDONESIA Sector Banking: Loan growth to support earnings growth in 2024. MALAYSIA Results CelcomDigi (CDB MK/HOLD/RM4.37/Target: RM4.50): 2023: Above our expectations but in line with street est...
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Meituan’s Business Maintains Stability Amid Negatives; Likely...
Meituan will report 4Q21 results in mid-to-late March. We are positive on Meituan’s 4Q21 and 1Q22 performance even though there were two negative factors going against the company, including ongoing COVID lockdowns and recent NDRC policies regarding potential fee cut. Following the NDRC’s directive to cut commission fees to help the services sector, Meituan announced information service commission cut for small and micro restaurants in high and middle risk areas. The impact from the fee cut was ...
- Tian Hou
Meituan (3690.HK): Positive On Meituan’s Long Term Outlook With Less P...
Meituan will report 3Q21 results on November 26th before the markets open with a 6am ET conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s outlook as most of the negatives from policy and weather/COVID fronts are likely to be behind us. The resurgence of COVID outbreaks along with the extreme bad weather in some regions are likely to be negative to margins. Meituan is leading in the community group buy business.
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Uncertainties From Policy Front Mostly Priced In; Expect Soli...
Meituan will report 2Q21 results on August 30th before the US market opens with a 7am ET conference call. Meituan has been dealing with regulatory policies related to ongoing anti-trust regulations as well as workers’ rights protection issues, which the company has discussed with the market since March and communicated the potential impact to unit economics. The Data Security Law, which is going to be effective on Sept. 1, 2021, is relatively new, and it was passed on June 10, 2021. All internet...
Increased risk weighs on MEITUAN, penalising its rating down to Sligh...
The independent financial analyst theScreener just lowered the general evaluation of MEITUAN (HK), active in the Internet industry. As regards its fundamental valuation, the title still shows 1 out of 4 possible stars. Its market behaviour, however, has slightly deteriorated and will be qualified as risky moving forward. theScreener considers that these new qualifications justify an overall rating downgrade to Slightly Negative. As of the analysis date July 9, 2021, the closing price was HKD 279...
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Positive On 1Q21 Performance And Longer-Term Outlook Despite ...
Meituan will report 1Q21 results on May 28th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s 1Q21 performance. The government is investigating Meituan for its potential misconducts. While a fine is quite certain, the issues surrounding riders’ safety and social welfare have become the center of discussion. At the end, we believe Meituan is highly likely to pay extra expense as part of its social responsibilities. However, after that, we believe Meituan’s busi...
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Travel Restrictions During CNY Are Positive For Jan. and Feb....
Meituan will report 4Q20 results on March 26th before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on its core business in 4Q20, January and February. In late 4Q20 and early 1Q21, China faced its worst resurgence of COVID cases in several northern provinces and cities since the pandemic first broke out there in early 2020. To combat the potential surge of cases, the Chinese government encouraged people to spend their Chinese New Year holidays where they were instead of travel...
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Rapidly Rolling Out Meituan Selected In More Places; Food Del...
Meituan announced in early September that it will expand its community group purchase service, Meituan Selected (美团优选), to 1,000 Chinese cities and counties by the end of 2020. Based on our data, in early December, Meituan Selected is available in 277 cities vs. 186 on November 16th. For food delivery, Meituan market share decreased slightly in October and November 2020 compared with 3Q20, as Ele.me organized successful “11.11” promotional events; however, Meituan’s market share is still close t...
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Accelerating Growth In Supply And Demand for Online Deliverie...
Meituan will report 3Q20 results on November 30th before the markets open with a 6am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s performance in 3Q20. The demand for food delivery services accelerated in 3Q20 as business activities and life returned to normal. The supply side of food delivery has been growing significantly as restaurant re-openings and their online migration continues their upward trend nationwide. The number of food delivery orders and restaurants joining online services w...
- Tian Hou
T. H. Data Flash - Meituan Dianping – June & 2Q20: Higher Rate Of Re...
We are positive into Meituan’s 2Q20 performance. The outbreak in early 2020 and subsequent cluster outbreaks have accelerated the restaurants’ online migration. Year-to-date, the restaurant online adoption rate was 20% higher than that at the end of 2019, which in turn led to 100% recovery in online deliveries and orders. In June 2020, Meituan Food Delivery gained market share on both GTV and orders compared with last month, and it had better Y/Y growth in 2Q20 than its peer on both GTV and orde...
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Positive on 1Q20 Performance On Higher Online Restaurant Pene...
We are positive on Meituan’s 1Q20 performance, which is benefiting from higher online penetration for restaurants and grocery stores post the outbreak. Our data shows that more restaurants are adopting online delivery to accomplish recovery. In 1Q20, Meituan Dianping’s food delivery business is likely to be better than the Street expectation. Delivery GTV is likely to decline 4.3% Y/Y to RMB72.4 billion, but per order economics is likely to be better in 1Q20 compared with 4Q19 and 1Q19 due to mu...
- Tian Hou
T. H. Data Flash – Meituan Dianping – November & 4Q19E: Food Deliv...
The food delivery market in China showed slower growth in November mainly due to the weaker economy. The early Chinese New Year in January is likely to add more pressure to this sector. Between Meituan and Ele.me, we believe Ele.me performed better in November 2019 as it received traffic support from Alipay and benefited from “11.11” sales event. Therefore, Meituan’s market share in both orders and GTV were slightly down in November compared with that in October.
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Higher Growth of Orders and GTV Leading To Positive Performan...
Meituan will report 3Q19 results on November 21st before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive on Meituan’s performance for 3Q19 due to continuous top-line growth and margin expansion. Based on our data and model, Meituan Dianping revenue is likely to be above consensus at RMB 25.553B in 3Q19 as a result of higher growth in GTVs and orders as well as other lines of businesses.
- Tian Hou
3690.HK: Margins Likely To Improve Meaningfully On Fewer Subsidies In ...
Meituan will report 2Q19 results on August 23rd before the markets open with a 7am EST conference call. We are positive into 2Q19 results, as Meituan is likely to be better on margins due to fewer subsidies. Based on our data and assumptions, Meituan Dianping revenue is likely to be better than consensus at RMB 21.7B in 2Q19 and our model. Gross margin at per unit of food delivery improved significantly in 2Q19 as the subsidies for drivers was less in 2Q19, which we believe is likely to lead to ...
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