Safe Bulkers Minor model adjustments

We have updated our estimates, owing to the Q1 report and its updated contract backlog at healthy rates providing visibility on cash flows for the coming quarters. The market is still pricing Safe Bulkers at c50% of NAV, which screens at a noticeable discount to peers’ average P/NAV of ~0.8x. This, along with its contract portfolio, continues to provide relatively attractive exposure to the dry bulk segment, despite potential downside risk to demand on fundamental drivers in China (importer of ~...

ABB Ltd: 2 directors

Two Directors at ABB Ltd sold 62,402 shares at between 44.780CHF and 44.933CHF. The significance rating of the trade was 79/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two...

Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy

Are the Lows "In" for this Pullback? While we are not yet out of the woods, we continue to see evidence that suggests the lows may be "in" for this pullback. Last week (4/23/24 Compass) we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited on the S&P 500 due to a multitude of reasons (SPX had simply filled 2/22/24 gap support that we had been discussing since late-February, Russell 2000 and Equal-Weighted S&P 500 were holding above key supports, short-term oversold conditions, subdued ...

Yard response and dry bulk qualms

Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.

Safe Bulkers (Buy, TP: USD5.70) - Still discounted dry bulk exposure

The market is pricing Safe Bulkers at a ~50% discount to NAV, which we believe mitigates any potential vessel value risk and leaves a still-favourable risk/reward towards the dry bulk supply-side narrative. However, we find the recent dry bulk freight market strength counter to fundamental demand drivers in China (importer of ~75% of seaborne iron ore volumes and ~50% of overall volumes), and see some market downside risk near-term. Still, at today’s share price, we see an attractive 17% earning...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/19/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 19/04/2024

...

ABB Ltd. : Solid Q1 reassuring on orders and operational EBITA margin

>Good Q1 set to reassure the market (book-to-bill at 1.1x, operational EBITA margin of 17.9%) - ABB’s Q1 results, reported yesterday morning, were better than expected overall. Order intake came in at $ 9bn, -4% in comparable terms (consensus at -7%), underpinned by the Electrification (EL) and Motion (MO) divisions, at respectively +8% and +1%, while orders fell by 30% at RA and by 20% for Process Automation (PA). Sales came to $ 7.87bn, +2% in comparable terms vs 5%...

ABB Ltd. : Le T1 solide rassure sur les commandes et sur la marge d’EB...

>Le bon T1 rassure (book-to-bill 1.1x, marge d’op. EBIT à 17.9%) - ABB a publié hier matin des résultats T1 globalement meilleurs qu’attendu. Les prises de commandes atteignent 9 Md$, -4% en comparable (consensus à -7%), soutenues par les divisions Electrification (EL) et Motion (MO), à respectivement +8% et +1%, tandis qu’elles reculent de 30% chez RA et de 20% en Process Automation (PA). Le CA atteint 7 870 M$, +2% en comparable vs 5% attendus par le consensus. La m...

ABB (Buy, TP: SEK595.00) - Non, je ne regrette rien

CEO Björn Rosengren’s penultimate report before retiring highlighted the structural improvements made at ABB under his tenure as margins beat our expectations and consensus, and the 2024 margin guidance was raised. We have upgraded to BUY (HOLD) and raised our target price to SEK595 (520), having increased our 2024–2026e operating EBITA by 5–4%. At 15.2x 2024e EV/EBIT (10-year average 15.0x), we believe the stock deserves further re-rating as the valuation still seems to be anchored in historica...

Profitability stars align - guides for 18% margin

Q1'24 op. EBITA margin of 17.9% - above expectations at ~16.5%. Keeps ~5% org. growth view for '24e, adds 18% op. EBITA ambition. We raise op. EBITA by 4-5% in '24e-'25e, reiterate HOLD.

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – DETAILED COMMENTS 04/18/2024

...

ODDO BHF SECURITIES MORNING NEWS – COMMENTAIRES DETAILLES 18/04/2024

...

ABB Ltd. : A robust start to the year, part of the guidance for 2024 r...

>Q1 2024: book-to-bill of 1.14x, operational EBITA 4% above expectations - This morning, ABB published Q1 sales of $ 7,870m, up 2% l-f-l vs 5% anticipated by the consensus, an “operation EBITA” margin of 17.9% ($ 1,417m) vs 16.8% estimated ($ 1,364m) and order intake of $ 8,974m (a 4% decline l-f-l), better than expected. The book-to-bill was therefore 1.14x. By market, demand remains robust in medium-voltage but the group mentioned (for the first time) a decline in p...

Strong profitability, lifts FY guidance

ABB Ltd. : Un début d’année solide, le groupe relève une partie de sa ...

>T1 2024 : book-to-bill à 1.14x, EBIT opérationnel 4% au-dessus des attentes - ABB a publié ce matin un chiffre d’affaires T1 de 7 870 M$, en hausse de 2% en comparable vs 5% attendus par le consensus, une marge « operational EBITA » de 17.9% (1 417 M$) vs 16.8% attendus (1 364 M$) et des prises de commandes de 8 974 M$ (en recul de 4% en comparable), meilleures qu’attendu. Le book-to-bill atteint ainsi 1.14x. Par marché, la demande reste forte en medium-voltage mais ...

The Capital Goods Data Miner - April 2024

Our key long ideas are: Alfa Laval, Assa Abloy, Hexagon, Metso, Volvo. We are cautious on: Autoliv, Nibe, Wärtsilä