The Great Replatforming, part I – the Special Theory

Capex ROI is the trending question these days, but what does it actually mean? In a “replatforming”, capex are enablers of revenue growth and productivity enhancements, as long as they are the foundation for a good “right to make money” (a defensible competitive advantage) and meet good demand. Our “Special Replatforming Theory” looks at how it has been at play for a decade already at hyperscalers, and how we expect the next 10 years to play out, with AI bringing an even more capital-intensive...

Arista Networks Inc: 1 director

A director at Arista Networks Inc sold after exercising options/sold 56,000 shares at 92.230USD and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directo...

Bible 1Q25 – Enterprise IT: AI drives Cloud growth, SaaS not reacceler...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending is moderating after a strong 2H24, but public-cloud growth remains steady as AI demand offsets a slowdown in traditional workloads. SaaS revenue growth remains in the low-teens with...

Growth in Public Cloud: Where from? What’s next?

Growth in Public Cloud reaccelerated, in line with our expectations, and, if anything, even stronger than we thought, and shifting fast, with AI representing an increasing share of public cloud growth, and with the fast-growing crowd of native AI start-ups becoming a meaningful segment. We gathered all the initial datapoints at hand and looked at all angles we could, to provide a first perspective of how public cloud is growing today and where it is headed next.

Post Holdings Inc: 2 directors

Two Directors at Post Holdings Inc sold/bought 188,490 shares at between 108.973USD and 109.115USD. The significance rating of the trade was 68/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directo...

Bible 1Q25 – Hyperscale & Cloud: Inference inflecting, more hints on 2...

Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 27th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. In the coming weeks we will publish sections on Telecom Infrastructure, Memory, Enterprise IT, and PCs. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, and acce...

Kinder Morgan Inc: 1 director

A director at Kinder Morgan Inc sold 18,000 shares at 28.260USD and the significance rating of the trade was 56/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clear...

Nvidia gains share in AI Ethernet, but loses share in AI networking, b...

Nvidia announced last night that its Spectrum X Ethernet revenues have reached an $8bn run rate. Please see the one-pager below for our view on the implications for Arista and Nvidia.

Arista 1Q25: 2025 guide prudently maintained amid macro uncertainty. A...

Arista reported 2Q24 yesterday.

Meta 1Q25 - Meta and the great re-platforming: guide increased for cap...

Calix Inc: 1 director

A director at Calix Inc sold 25,000 shares at 39.588USD and the significance rating of the trade was 67/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two years clearly showi...

Tariffs. Figuring the right baseline to assess implications

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.

ARC-AGI-2: Pushing the measure of intelligence beyond test-time comput...

The ARC team has announced ARC-AGI-2 and published initial benchmarking results, after ARC-AGI-1 got saturated by o3. The race to AGI is reset. Fascinating. ​​​​​For what all investors need to understand about the most important benchmark of the industry, summarized on a single slide, see the attached article.

Bible 4Q24: Enterprise IT – continued recovery in Legacy, stabilizatio...

Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending recovery continued, with major players again reporting double-digit order growth across core legacy portfolios. Al server demand remained strong, although some revenue recognition ...

AI buildouts: How is 2026 shaping up? What do we know already?

The outlook for 2025 AI datacenter spending is solid, with the debate now shifting to 2026 and the supply-demand trajectory. As the last earnings season is still fresh in our minds and our team just came back from Asia, we have gathered in this short note all what we know so far of 2026, and implications.