The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.
Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...
A director at Arista Networks Inc sold/sold after exercising options 160,000 shares at 66.787USD and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direct...
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.
The ARC team has announced ARC-AGI-2 and published initial benchmarking results, after ARC-AGI-1 got saturated by o3. The race to AGI is reset. Fascinating. For what all investors need to understand about the most important benchmark of the industry, summarized on a single slide, see the attached article.
We publish today our comprehensive quarterly bible: 240 pages of detailed analyses on what happened in the last 3 months, and how we interpret it, in light of our current convictions. The first section acts as a PM summary, outlining our key findings, and latest thoughts on the semi cycle, in 6 slides.
Today, we are publishing the Enterprise IT section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Legacy IT spending recovery continued, with major players again reporting double-digit order growth across core legacy portfolios. Al server demand remained strong, although some revenue recognition ...
The outlook for 2025 AI datacenter spending is solid, with the debate now shifting to 2026 and the supply-demand trajectory. As the last earnings season is still fresh in our minds and our team just came back from Asia, we have gathered in this short note all what we know so far of 2026, and implications.
Broadcom announced last week an additional 2 engagements for its custom compute business, bringing the total to 7, with 3 already in production. In today’s work, we take a deep dive into GPU and ASIC throughput and TCO to assess how the market is likely to evolve in the coming years. Our findings should provide investors with a valuable framework ahead of Nvidia’s upcoming announcements at GTC next week.
Today, we are publishing the Hyperscale & Cloud section of our 26th Tech Infrastructure Quarterly Bible. The Tech Bible is a must-read for any tech investor, as it summarizes the quarterly earnings reports from the over 140 companies we track, providing an update on our key perspectives and convictions. Hyperscale revenues grew 11% YoY, with cloud services stabilizing in the mid-20%, driven by strong demand for both traditional & AI infrastructure. Capex grew 73% YoY and 25% QoQ, 11% above con...
Our two-day 9th virtual TMT Forum was attended by 32 listed companies and 292 investors. The trends in media seem to point to a correct start to the year. Telecom players are optimistic on the regulatory front (intra-market consolidation). Software & IT services and semis continue to see mixed trends, apart from in AI and some hopes that a few companies will benefit from the rise of defence spending. In terms of companies, the main positive messages came from Auto1, CMCOM, Indra, Infineon, Telec...
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