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Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs & TSMC: the baseline & what’s next

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis to evaluate the impact on TSMC with more precision. This follows our recent deep dives on the impact on Nvidia, Broadcom, AMD/Intel, and Semicap. Read also our broader notes on tariffs: our baseline thesis for an overall perspective, and our assessment of the macro risk. Please see the link below for more details.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

The token is the new transistor… on steroids – Facts & implications

We now have 2 years of history on how OpenAI has been able to optimise a generation of models with GPT4. We have gathered the data onto a chart and offer our thoughts on implications for the industry and what comes next on a single slide. Please see the link below for more details.

Pierre FerraguÊ ... (+2)
  • Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Rolf Bulk

TSMC: AI still very strong; unchanged FY25 guide reflects tariffs caut...

TSMC reported 1Q25 this morning. Please see the attached article for our take on the print.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs & Broadcom: the baseline & what’s next:

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. As we strengthen our understanding of the tech supply chain, we follow-up on our initial analysis, to evaluate the impact on Broadcom with more precision. This follows our recent deep dive on the impact on Nvidia

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs – How would a recession affect our coverage?

The tariffs announced by the Trump administration in the last two weeks have resulted in major swings in the stock market and broader concerns regarding the global economy. We developed a framework to understand the situation and interpret its daily evolution last week and follow up today with an initial perspective on potential macro implications.

 PRESS RELEASE

Broadcom Introduces Industry’s First Incident Prediction Capability to...

Broadcom Introduces Industry’s First Incident Prediction Capability to Stop Living-Off-The-Land Attacks Leveraging advanced AI, Symantec Endpoint Security can predict cybercriminals’ moves in the attack chain, quickly stop them and return organizations to a state of cyber resilience PALO ALTO, Calif., April 15, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- (NASDAQ:AVGO) today announced Incident Prediction, an industry-first security capability that extends , a unique feature of , by leveraging AI to identify and disrupt living-off-the land (LOTL) attacks and other cyberthreats. Trained on a catalog of o...

Palo Alto Networks Inc: 1 director

A director at Palo Alto Networks Inc sold 649,828 shares at 165.413USD and the significance rating of the trade was 72/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's directors over the last two year...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs: Smartphones, PC, semicap equipment, and others excluded - Our...

As a follow-up to the baseline thesis we published on Friday about U.S. tariffs, we provide below our assessment of latest developments announced on Friday.

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Getting over Tariffs – Step back. Rethink. Move on.

Swings observed in the last 10 days has been second to none. The Great Financial Crisis and Covid didn’t get us in a worst spot. Make no mistake: The markets are panicking today even more than when the world came to a COVID standstill, with the individual contributors to the vast majority of the world’s GDP locked down. How reasonable is that? Very little, in our view. The polarization of the political landscape has created a global brain freeze. Few analyses calmly assess the U.S. administrati...

Arista Networks Inc: 1 director

A director at Arista Networks Inc sold/sold after exercising options 160,000 shares at 66.787USD and the significance rating of the trade was 75/100. Is that information sufficient for you to make an investment decision? This report gives details of those trades and adds context and analysis to them such that you can judge whether these trading decisions are ones worth following. Included in the report is a detailed share price chart which plots discretionary trades by all the company's direct...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Semiconductors in the crash: Relative valuations walked back 15 years...

As we brace for another tough Monday, we share with you this morning our usual quarterly and extensive review of where fundamentals, expectations, and valuations stand in semis, although, this time, in light of the steep pullback of the last couple of days, and the last couple of months. Over the next 30 slides. We did our best to articulate our expectations for earnings revisions with where we stand on valuation already, and the fundamental backdrop, segment by segment. We conclude with a very...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Tariffs. Figuring the right baseline to assess implications

Evaluating the consequences of tariffs is challenging. We chose to help layout a simple and strong analytical baseline to understand the first-order impact of tariffs on our coverage. In a few slides we have summarised the groundwork and look forward to continuing the work and help our readers make sense of implications in weeks to come.

Wedbush Research
  • Wedbush Research
SGI SOMNIGROUP INTERNATIONAL INC
W WAYFAIR INC.
KMX CARMAX INC.
WSM WILLIAMS-SONOMA INC.
WING WINGSTOP INC.
WDC WESTERN DIGITAL CORPORATION
TSLA TESLA INC
TSCO TRACTOR SUPPLY COMPANY
SIMON SILICON MOTION TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION SPONSORED ADR
PSTG PURE STORAGE INC. CLASS A
PEGA PEGASYSTEMS INC.
PANW PALO ALTO NETWORKS INC.
NVDA NVIDIA CORPORATION
NTAP NETAPP INC.
MU MICRON TECHNOLOGY INC.
MNRO MONRO INC
LOW LOWE'S COMPANIES INC.
INTC INTEL CORPORATION
IMAX IMAX CORPORATION
HD HOME DEPOT INC.
GPC GENUINE PARTS COMPANY
GOOGL ALPHABET INC. CLASS A
FB FACEBOOK INC. CLASS A
EGP EASTGROUP PROPERTIES INC.
DKS DICK'S SPORTING GOODS INC.
CYBR CYBERARK SOFTWARE LTD.
CHKP CHECK POINT SOFTWARE TECHNOLOGIES LTD.
CAKE CHEESECAKE FACTORY INCORPORATED
BMRN BIOMARIN PHARMACEUTICAL INC.
BBY BEST BUY CO. INC.
AZO AUTOZONE INC.
AXTI AXT INC.
AAP ADVANCE AUTO PARTS INC.
NFLX NETFLIX INC.
2330 TAIWAN SEMICONDUCTOR MANUFACTURING CO. LTD.
2303 UNITED MICROELECTRONICS CORP.
ORLY O'REILLY AUTOMOTIVE INC.
FND FLOOR & DECOR HOLDINGS INC. CLASS A
CVNA CARVANA CO. CLASS A
ROKU ROKU INC. CLASS A
SNBR SLEEP NUMBER CORPORATION
AMZN AMAZON.COM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AAPL APPLE INC.
MSFT MICROSOFT CORPORATION
IBM INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS MACHINES CORPORATION
PRPL PURPLE INNOVATION
RH RESTORATION HARDWARE INC.
CHWY CHEWY INC. CLASS A
SMCI SUPER MICRO COMPUTER
ASO INC.
FUBO ACADEMY SPORTS AND OUTDOORS
TVTX FUBOTV
PLTR TRAVERE THERAPEUTICS INC
WOOF PALANTIR TECHNOLOGIES
PLTK PETCO HEALTH AND WELLNESS
RBLX PLAYTIKA HOLDING
RMBL ROBLOX
STX RUMBLEON INC
ARHS SEAGATE TECHNOLOGY HLDGS PLC
GFS ARHAUS INC
EWTX GLOBALFOUNDRIES INC
EDGEWISE THERAPEUTICS INC
 PRESS RELEASE

Broadcom Advances Optical Connectivity for AI Infrastructure with Indu...

Broadcom Advances Optical Connectivity for AI Infrastructure with Industry-Leading Solutions at OFC 2025 Broadcom showcases optical interconnect solutions for next generation AI clusters; Highlights path to 200T PALO ALTO, Calif., March 31, 2025 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Broadcom Inc. (NASDAQ: AVGO) today announced the expansion of its portfolio of optical interconnect solutions to enable AI infrastructure. These innovative technologies, including advancements in co-packaged optics (CPO), 200G/lane DSP and SerDes, 400G optics, and PCIe Gen6 over optics, will be showcased at the 2025 Optical F...

Pierre FerraguÊ
  • Pierre FerraguÊ

Making sure you saw this - Intel Vision: Where do we stand? What matte...

Making sure you saw our note on Intel prior to the Intel Vision event. Intel Vision will feature the first keynote of Lip-Bu Tan, the incoming CEO. We take the opportunity to review where things stand and options ahead.

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