reports
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD72.00) - Discount gone too far
We believe market concerns regarding a potential reversal of initially beneficial disruptions are overdone as much of the benefit for compliant tankers has already eroded. Hence, at an implied value for a 5-year MR at ~USD21m (versus the 15-year low of USD22m), we see a reinforced attractive entry point to the tankers space, with supportive supply/demand fundamentals and risk skewed to the upside. We reiterate our BUY, but have lowered our target price to USD72 (82).
- Jørgen Lian
Another abrupt change
The US Trade Representative on 17 April published revised US port fees with significant changes to the initial proposal based on industry feedback. In its current form, the fees will primarily discourage use of Chinese-controlled maritime trade services to the US, and directly affect the use of Chinese-built vessels in US ports (with several considerable exemptions to avoid harm to US trade). The previous broader fees based on fleet composition and share of Chinese-built vessels has been scrappe...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
‘The times they are a-changin’
The recurring theme at our 18th Energy & Shipping Conference was geopolitical uncertainty and a potential trade war, warranting a wait-and-see approach, particularly on the Trump 2.0 effect. The consensus view pointed to high asset values, with no rush to the yards, aligning with below-NAV valuations across most of our coverage. However, panellists generally saw less downside risk than the 25% average discount to steel for our Tanker, Dry Bulk and Gas coverage. Overall, the day highlighted uncer...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD82.00) - Undervalued cash flow potential
Despite being down versus the strength during much of 2024, product tanker rates remain solid, with MR rates currently 7% above the February 5-year average (112% excluding 2023–2024). We forecast FCF yields of 22% and 29% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, which, together with Scorpio Tanker’s discount to NAV (0.66x P/NAV), in our view should be supportive for continued accretive share buybacks. Hence, we reiterate our BUY but have lowered our target price to USD82 (93).
- Jørgen Lian
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Short Shots: Technically Vulnerable Stocks
Short Shots is a collection of technically vulnerable charts culled from the Negative Inflecting and Toppy columns within our Weekly Compass report or from various technical screening processes. The charts contained in this report have developed concerning technical patterns that suggest further price deterioration is likely. For these reasons Short Shots can also be a great source of ideas for investors interested in short-selling candidates.
PEP PEPSICO INC.
ANTM ANTHEM INC.
NUE NUCOR CORPORATION
NXPIN NXP SEMICONDUCTORS NV
CSX CSX CORPORATION
TXT TEXTRON INC.
TX. TERNIUM S.A. SPONSORED ADR
TDG TRANSDIGM GROUP INCORPORATED
SAIC SCIENCE APPLICATIONS INTERNATIONAL CORP.
PII POLARIS INC.
KMB KIMBERLY-CLARK CORPORATION
HCA HCA HEALTHCARE INC
GD GENERAL DYNAMICS CORPORATION
FANG DIAMONDBACK ENERGY INC.
DCI DONALDSON COMPANY INC.
CVS CVS HEALTH CORPORATION
CAL CALERES INC.
CACI CACI INTERNATIONAL INC CLASS A
BAH BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION CLASS A
AVAV AEROVIRONMENT INC.
ASH ASHLAND GLOBAL HOLDINGS INC.
AMAT APPLIED MATERIALS INC.
ACGL ARCH CAPITAL GROUP LTD.
AIG AMERICAN INTERNATIONAL GROUP INC.
CNR. CANADIAN NATIONAL RAILWAY COMPANY
TEX TEREX CORPORATION
MEG. MEG ENERGY CORP.
MUR MURPHY OIL CORPORATION
MMC MARSH & MCLENNAN COMPANIES INC.
FRO FERRO S.A.
ITKA ANHEUSER-BUSCH INBEV N.V. ADS
FI FRANK'S INTERNATIONAL NV
GES GUESS? INC.
WFT.. WEATHERFORD INTERNATIONAL PLC
XYL XYLEM INC.
QCOM.. QUALCOMM INC.
AMD ADVANCED MICRO DEVICES INC.
AMEH APOLLO MEDICAL HOLDINGS INC
CI CIGNA CORPORATION
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
UBER UBER TECHNOLOGIES INC.
RXST RXSIGHT INC
CHRD CHORD ENERGY CORPORATION
TNK FRONTLINE PLC
TEEKAY TANKERS LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers Minor model adjustments
We have updated our estimates following the Q3 report and Q4 guidance. We have lowered our 2024e adj. EBITDA by 4% and 2025–2026e by 2%. We still see attractive cash flow potential (~21% FCF yield on our 2025e) and find the current P/NAV of ~0.70x (stock down ~20% since early October) supportive for continued capital returns through share buybacks and an attractive risk/reward. We do not consider our estimate changes to be material, and we have not changed our BUY recommendation. We reiterate ou...
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD93.00) - Robust cash-flow potential
Despite a seasonal slowdown, Q3 average product tanker rates were ~20% above the 5-year average, while near-term fundamentals seem intact, with 2024e tonne-mile growth set to outpace supply growth. Our 2025e fleet-wide TCE of USD28.5k/day implies still-strong cash-generation potential (~19% FCF yield) and is supportive of continued accretive buybacks through the company’s share repurchase programme. We reiterate our BUY but have cut our target price to USD93 (95).
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD95.00) - Appealing value accretion
Despite slightly soft Q3 guidance, we see ongoing strength in the product tanker market, with average rates 61% above the 5-year average for the current month. Scorpio Tankers’ reduced cash breakeven following USD399m in debt repayments in Q2, and its reloaded share buyback programme of USD400m, should leave ample room for continued accretive capital returns through share repurchases at its current discount to NAV (we calculate P/NAV of 0.85x). We reiterate our BUY, but have trimmed our target p...
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD96.00) - Focus shifting to capital return...
We expect the ongoing strength in product tanker freight markets and Scorpio Tankers’ reduced cash breakeven after the latest USD223.6m unscheduled debt prepayment to support cash flows going forward, which we believe will be increasingly directed to shareholders as the indicated debt targets are reached. Hence, focus will be on the Q3 outlook and capital allocation in its Q2 report due pre-market on 30 July. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD96 (92).
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
New All-Time Highs Validates Our Bullish Outlook We continue to view the latest pullback to the 100-day MA on the S&P 500 as healthy and normal within the ongoing bull market, and our bullish outlook (since early-November 2023) remains intact. Throughout the last week of April, we discussed the possibility that further downside was limited (4/23/24 Compass) and the mounting evidence that led us to believe the lows were likely in for this pullback (4/30/24 Compass). Market dynamics remain health...
MATX MATSON INC.
EURN EURONAV NV
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
ASC ARDMORE SHIPPING
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
NVGS NAVIGATOR HOLDINGS
LPG DORIAN LPG
DSX DIANA SHIPPING INC.
LCM COSTAMARE INC.
TK TEEKAY CORPORATION
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
CENX CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY
GATX GATX CORPORATION
KEX KIRBY CORPORATION
WAB WESTINGHOUSE AIR BRAKE TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION
OSG OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP
AA ALCOA CORPORATION
INSW INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INC.
NOHA NORSK HYDRO ASA ADS
AWCMY ALUMINA LTD ADS
RTP. RIO TINTO PLC CEDEAR
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
NMM NAVIOS MARITIME PARTNERS
GSL GLOBAL SHIP LEASE INC. CLASS A
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
CSTM CONSTELLIUM SE CLASS A
TNP TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD.
FRO FRONTLINE PLC
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
HWM HOWMET AEROSPACE INC COM
GBX GREENBRIER COMPANIES INC COM
FSTR L B FOSTER CO COM
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD92.00) - Set to pivot from debt to distri...
We see ongoing support for the product tanker markets from geopolitics and a fundamentally strong supply and demand outlook even though the orderbook is creeping up. We would expect Scorpio Tankers to redirect cash flows to shareholder returns when it hits its debt target. We estimate current rates leave more than USD4/share in quarterly firepower (23% yield), with the stock now trading at a P/NAV of 0.9x. We reiterate our BUY, and have raised our target price to USD92 (83).
- Jørgen Lian
Yard response and dry bulk qualms
Our trip to South Korea and China revealed Chinese shipbuilders are seeking growth to take on Korea’s established yards who are facing constraints. An eagerness to add capacity is one of our takeaways, as well as a gloomy outlook for Chinese real estate, which in our view should inevitably weigh on dry bulk demand.
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
A brewing challenge for the yards
Our 17th Annual Energy & Shipping Conference was well attended by investors and industry executives showcasing the still-growing interest for the sectors. Limited yard capacity is fuelling high newbuilding prices and raising freight rate expectations for the vast fleet renewal necessary in the coming decade. Long lead times underpin a bullish supply story for much of shipping in the coming years, albeit exposed to geopolitical risks affecting trade patterns. Our overall impression was general op...
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
SBL SAFE BULKERS INC.
LPG DORIAN LPG
GNK GENCO SHIPPING & TRADING LTD.
MAERSK B A.P. MOLLER - MAERSK A/S CLASS B
ODF ODFJELL ASA
WAWI WALLENIUS WILHELMSEN LOGISTICS ASA
WWI WILHELM WILHELMSEN HOLDING
SBLK STAR BULK CARRIERS CORP.
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
G2O GOLAR LNG LIMITED
AMSC AMERICAN SHIPPING COMPANY ASA
SN6 STOLT-NIELSEN LTD.
BWLPG BW LPG LTD.
GOGLO GOLDEN OCEAN GROUP LTD
AVACF AVANCE GAS HOLDINGS LTD
HUNT HUNTER GROUP ASA
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
FLNG FLEX LNG LTD.
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
TNK TEEKAY TANKERS
2020 2020 BULKERS LTD
KCC KLAVENESS COMBINATION CARRIERS
EGLE EAGLE BULK SHIPPING
MPCC MPC CONTAINER SHIPS AS
HAUTO HOEGH AUTOLINERS ASA
WEST WESTERN BULK CHARTERING
HAFNI HAFNIA
COOL COOL COMPANY LTD.
HSHP HIMALAYA SHIPPING LTD.
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD83.00) - Fast-tracking distributions
Scorpio Tankers’ strong cash flow has shortened its runway towards its (unofficial) net debt target (we forecast Q2), at which point we see its substantial distribution potential being unleashed as a potential catalyst. We find its 0.83x P/NAV pricing offers investors attractive exposure to its premium-earning fleet generating solid cash flow amid a multi-year upcycle we believe is still in the early stages. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD83 (82).
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD82.00) - Exceptional cash flows
Scorpio Tankers’ NAV is up 50% YOY, benefiting from well-timed, aggressive share buybacks and vessel values at 16-year highs. We believe the next step for the company is to realise its substantial distribution potential, with its unofficial USD800m net debt target possibly just around the corner as LR2 spot rates now have surpassed USD100k/day. We reiterate our BUY and have raised our target price to USD82 (75.9).
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD75.90) - Higher shareholder return visibi...
Scorpio Tankers is flexing the muscles of its modern, scrubber-fitted eco fleet, beating Q3 consensus and, in our view, ensuring even stronger earnings for Q4. Management has mapped out a debt repayment runway, which we believe could see Scorpio Tankers’ churning out a ~20% FCFE yield at current TC rates. However, with the fleet’s constrained delivery schedule, high shipyard utilisation, low shipyard capacity, and still-significant fleet replacement potential, we continue to see upside potential...
- Dave Nicoski
- Ross LaDuke
Vermilion Compass: Weekly Equity Strategy
Bullish Breadth Divergences Persist The S&P 500 is just below 4165-4200 support, and the Nasdaq 100 (QQQ) is just below $350-$355 support. Given they were only 1%-1.5% below these supports at last week's lows, we cannot call them "decisive" breakdowns quite yet. Regardless, these levels are now resistance (in addition to the 200-day MA on SPX), and they are important lines-in-the-sand moving forward. We cannot be bullish if the SPX and QQQ are below the aforementioned levels, but it would be bu...
LINC LINCOLN EDUCATIONAL SERVICES
DHT DHT HOLDINGS INC.
NVGS NAVIGATOR HOLDINGS
LPG DORIAN LPG
EGO ELDORADO GOLD CORP.
TK TEEKAY CORPORATION
K. KINROSS GOLD CORPORATION
NAT NORDIC AMERICAN TANKERS LIMITED
IMG. IAMGOLD CORPORATION
FRO FRONTLINE LTD.
UTI UNIVERSAL TECHNICAL INSTITUTE INC.
BVN... COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA SAA SPONSORED ADR
OSG OVERSEAS SHIPHOLDING GROUP
INSW INTERNATIONAL SEAWAYS INC.
LAUR LAUREATE EDUCATION INC. CLASS A
STRA STRATEGIC EDUCATION INC.
STNG SCORPIO TANKERS INC.
AFYA AFYA
SFL SFL CORPORATION LIMITED
PRDO PERDOCEO EDUCATION CORP
TNP TSAKOS ENERGY NAVIGATION LTD.
LRN STRIDE INC
- Jørgen Lian
Scorpio Tankers (Buy, TP: USD73.10) - Harbouring further value
The market appears to have left Scorpio Tankers behind in its re-rating of tanker stocks, with our peer group trading at a ~1.0x P/NAV, versus the company’s 20% discount. We continue to find the cash generation potential in Scorpio Tankers substantial, yielding tangible return catalysts as its sizeable liquidity buffer potentially translates to increased shareholder distributions through more buybacks and higher dividends. Against a backdrop of still-strong fundamentals, which should cement cons...
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