SCZ: Soft Q3 Financials; Still Too Cheap Relative to Cashflow
What you need to know:• Santacruz reported Q3 revenue of $80.0M (+2% YoY) vs. our estimate of $78.8M, representing 2% growth YoY.
• Cash costs and AISC came in above our expectations due to higher ore purchasing costs for San Lucas, flooding at Bolivar, and plant improvements at Zimapan. We believe these are all transitional.
• SCZ ended the quarter with $59.2M in cash and $45.8M in debt, now being positioned to return cash to shareholders or acquire new assets.
Yesterday, after market close, Santacruz Silver (SCZ:TSXV) announced Q3 financial results that came in below our expectations due to various factors increasing costs, most of which we believe to be short-term in nature. Nevertheless, SCZ generates strong cashflow, bolstering its balance sheet after the completion of its final payment to Glencore. Going forward, SCZ is positioned to continue benefiting from its leverage to the increasing silver price and start returning capital to shareholders. We are maintaining our BUY rating and our C$3.10/share target price on SCZ.
Financial Highlights
• Revenue for Q3 came in at $80.0M (+2% YoY) vs. our estimate of $78.8M. This was led by a 15% YoY decline in the silver equivalent ounces produced and the increased silver price making up the difference.
• Gross margin for Q3 came in at 25% compared to 20% in Q3/24.
• Cash cost for the quarter was $28.6/oz vs. our estimate of $25.6/oz and $22.4/oz in Q3/24. The higher costs were led by various factors, including 1) the higher ore purchase costs for San Lucas (normal for ore processors), 2) the flooding at Bolivar, and 3) plant improvement initiatives at Zimapan. The appreciation of the Bolivian boliviano also contributed to increased costs.
• AISC for the quarter was $35.6/oz compared to our estimate of $30.9/oz, again led by Bolivar.
• Adjusted EBITDA in Q3 was $19.5M (+67% YoY), vs. our estimate of $24.8M and $15.0M in Q3/24.
• OCF (before WC) was $34.8M for Q3 compared to our $17.7M estimate. OCF (after WC) was $22.8M.
• Net income for Q3 was $16.3M, slightly below our estimate of $17.1M.
• SCZ ended the quarter with $59.2M in cash and equivalents and $45.8M in debt, placing the Company in a net cash position.
Santacruz Silver Mining is engaged in the operation, acquisition, exploration and development of mineral properties in Mexico, with a primary focus on silver, but also including gold, zinc and lead. Co. is focused on meeting and maintaining its primary production objective of producing approximately 1.5 million silver equivalent ounces on a yearly basis at its producing property, the Rosario Mine. In addition, Co. is exploring three other mineral properties, being the San Felipe Project (an advanced stage project), the Gavilanes Project (an exploration project), and the El Gachi Property (an early stage exploration project).
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