Report
Guy Sips ...
  • Thibault Leneeuw

Technology franchise Semiconductor market dynamics

In this sector note we take a close look at the semiconductor universe and go over end market dynamics, semi manufacturing trends and the impact on the WFE market. We provide detailed overviews of historical market trends and short term adjustments. We show that lower demand from China is a real risk for the WFE market, as we don't expect the non-China WFE revenues will increase with 28% y/y in 2025, which CSS implies. Our analysis shows a clear 10% risk on WFE estimates based on fundamentals, excluding tariffs. Given the market dynamics we become bullish on ASMi and Besi, and upgrade both names to BUY from a HOLD and ACC, respectively, while ASML is better positioned for tariffs. We maintain our Accumulate rating for ASML as we expect some headwinds. In the automotive landscape we prefer Melexis over X-fab for which we maintain our Buy and Accumulate rating, respectively.
Underlyings
ASM International N.V.

ASM International is an equipment supplier mainly to the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Co. designs, manufactures and sells equipment and services to its customers for the production of semiconductor devices, or integrated circuits. Co.'s front-end segment manufactures and sells equipment used in wafer processing, encompassing the fabrication steps in which silicon wafers are layered with semiconductor devices. Co.'s back-end segment manufactures and sells equipment and materials used in assembly and packaging, encompassing the processes in which silicon wafers are separated into individual circuits and subsequently assembled, packaged and tested.

ASML Holding NV

ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.

BE Semiconductor Industries N.V.

BE Semiconductor Industries N.V. (Besi) is a holding company. The Company is engaged in the development, manufacturing, marketing, sales and service of semiconductor assembly equipment for the global semiconductor and electronics industries. It operates through three segments: Die Attach, Packaging and Plating. It develops assembly processes and equipment for leadframe, substrate and wafer level packaging applications in a range of end user markets, including electronics, computer, automotive, industrial and solar energy. The Company offers products, such as Die attach equipment, which include single chip, multi-chip, multi module, flip chip, thermo-compression bonding (TCB) and enhanced wafer level ball grid array (eWLB) die bonding systems, and die sorting systems; Packaging equipment, which include wafer level molding and singulation systems, and Plating equipment, which include metal plating systems and related process chemicals.

Melexis NV

Melexis designs, develops, tests and markets advanced integrated circuits primarily for the automotive industry. Co. sells its products to a wide customer base in the automotive, medical and industrial markets in Europe, Asia and North America. Co.'s main products are Hall effect ICs, Pressure and Acceleration Sensors, Sensor Interface ICs, Automotive Systems-on-a-Chip, Embedded Microcontrollers, Bus System Chips, Optical and Infrared sensors. In each case the products are primarily developed for automotive applications and designated lead customers with subsequent use in commercial and industrial applications.

X-FAB Silicon Foundries SE

X Fab Silicon Foundries EV is a Belgium-based company primarily engaged in the semiconductors industry. The Company focuses on the design and manufacture of silicon wafers for mixed-signal integrated circuits (ICs). Its products are integrated with additional features, such as high voltage option, embedded non-volatile memory, optical, radio frequency (RF) and bipolar elements, as well as microelectromechanical sensors. The Company distributes silicon wafers for various applications, including automotive, industrial, medical, as well as consumer electronics and mobile communications sector. The Company operates in a number of countries, such as Germany, France, Malaysia and the United States.

Provider
KBC Securities
KBC Securities

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Analysts
Guy Sips

Thibault Leneeuw

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