Report
Jorge Guimarães
EUR 150.00 For Business Accounts Only

Iberian Energy Monthly: January: strong demand, little water

The first month of 2019 was characterized by strong levels of electricity demand, with Iberian demand up 3.1% yoy to 28.2TWh (highest value for Jan in 8 years), also due to weather effects. Wholesale electricity prices also started the year on the rise, with an avg pool price of Eur62.0/MWh in January, +22.9% vs Jan-18, 27.3% above the 2014/18 avg. Although the month was favourable in terms of wind production (7.4TWh, +11.1% yoy and 9.3% above the 5Y avg), it was dry, which had an impact on hydro production (@ 3.2TWh, was marginally up (+3.8%) vs a weak Jan-18 but 31.7% below 5Y avg levels. The consequence of higher demand and low hydro was an increase in the thermal gap (to 8.1TWh, +8.3% yoy and 10.8% above the 5Y avg), which helps to explain the increase in pool prices. The year should have started on a positive note for wind producers (Acciona, EDPR), as higher prices were coupled with high production levels (although higher remuneration from market revenues reduces the fixed component of remunerations). For the integrated companies January should have been more or less neutral. Spanish gas demand reached 40.2TWh, 13.0% up yoy and 17.5% above the 5Y avg, which should be seen as a plus for Enagás. Conventional gas demand in Spain rose 9.7% yoy while gas for electricity generation demand was up 32.4% yoy, driven by a change in the thermal gap mix, as Iberian gas fired output was up 16.8% yoy whereas coal was up just 1.3% vs Jan-18.
Underlyings
Acciona SA

Acciona is the parent company of a construction group. Co. is engaged in general construction activities in the areas of civil engineering and buildings, including railways, marine and hydraulic works, motorways and airports, town planning, conduits, pavements, parking lots, and industrial and urban buildings. In addition, Co. is engaged in the provision of real estate services, the operation of parking lots, telecommunications, services, ecology and alternative means of energy. Co.'s operations are organized in six business divisions: Infrastructures, Real Estate, Energy, Water, Environmental & Urban Services and Logistic & Transport Services.

EDP Renovaveis SA

EDP Renovaveis is a renewable energy company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in activities related to the electricity sector, namely the planning, construction, operation and maintenance of electricity generating power stations, especially hydroelectric, mini-hydroelectric, wind, solar, thermal solar, photovoltaic, biomass and waste plants, among others. Co. designs, develops, manages and operates power plants. Co. generates electricity using renewable energy sources mostly wind energy. Co. owns EDP Renewables Europe that operates in several European countries and Horizon Wind Energy, which operates in the United States. Co. is a part of the Energias de Portugal group.

Enagas SA

Enagas is a gas transportation company based in Spain. Co. is engaged in the technical distribution and storage of gas through pipelines as well as the provision of regasification services. Co. and subsidiaries are engaged in the ownership, administration, storage, pipeline transportation, distribution flow, and sale of natural gas. As a transport company, Co. also provides gas and manages the gas infrastructures.

Endesa S.A.

Endesa is engaged in the production, transmission, distribution, and supply of electricity, through hydroelectric, fossil fuel, and nuclear generation. Co. is also engaged in the mining of coal for use in its fossil-fuel electric plants; mining research; land restoration, and environmental monitoring and control.

Iberdrola SA

Iberdrola is a holding company. Through its subsidiaries, Co. operates in four segments: network business, which includes all the energy transmission and distribution activities, and other regulated activity originated in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and Brazil; deregulated business, which includes electricity generation and sales businesses as well as gas trading and storage businesses carried on by Co. in Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and North America; renewable business, with activities related to renewable energies in Spain, the U.K., the U.S. and the rest of the world; and other businesses, including the engineering and construction businesses and the non-power businesses.

Naturgy Energy Group S.A.

Gas Natural SDG is a gas company based in Spain. Co. and its subsidiaries are primarily engaged in the supply, transportation, distribution and commercialization of piped natural gas, as well as the activities involving exploration and developing, supply, regasification, liquefaction and storage of natural gas, and the generation and commercialization of electricity. Co. operates mainly in Spain and also outside of Spain, especially in Latin America, Puerto Rico, Italy, France and Africa (through Maghreb-Europe gas pipeline and integrated LNG projects in Algeria).

Red Electrica Corp. S.A.

Redes Energeticas Nacionais SA

Ren Redes Energeticas Nacionais is engaged in two principal lines of business: electricity transmission, where Co. owns and operates Portugal's national high-voltage electricity transmission network (the "RNT"), and natural gas, where Co. is engaged in the reception, storage and regasification of liquefied natural gas ("LNG"), the operation of the national high-pressure gas transmission network, which Co. owns and operates under respective concessions and the underground storage of natural gas. Co.'s electricity transmission business is conducted through its subsidiary REN - Rede Electrica, which holds a 50 year concession to operate the electricity transmission network in Portugal.

Provider
Haitong Bank, S.A.
Haitong Bank, S.A.

Haitong is the first international Chinese investment bank and our goal is to be the primary channel for capital flows into and out of China. During 2015 the Senior Management Team in London was expanded significantly to focus on this objective and to provide a full-service cross-asset markets business coupled with sector-focused investment banking. We work closely with our world-wide network of offices to bring a true depth of understanding to all client situations.

Analysts
Jorge Guimarães

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