Alfen Be Greedy when others are Fearful
In this note we increase our explicit forecast period for each segment and make small adjustments to our model. Revenue forecasts mainly decrease due to a weaker outlook for energy storage systems. For 2024 gross margin weakens due to the additional costs. However in the long run gross margin improves thanks to a better mix between the segments. Furthermore, we increase OpEx as 1Q24 results indicate that our previous estimate was too cautious. These factors lower our DCF based target from € 58 to € 52 per share. Given the strong upside of almost 50% and the historical low multiples we reiterate our BUY rating.Alfen NV (Alfen) is a company based in the Netherlands, engaged in the design, development and production of electric grid equipment. The Company is active in three business lines: Smart Grids, which supplies standardized electricity grid connection systems, secondary transformer substations, local power grids, devices for grid automation, as well as software and back-end systems for remote management and grid control; Energy Storage, responsible for development and installation of modular energy storage systems under the brand TheBattery, which are used by utilities, grid operators, energy traders and industrial companies, among others, and Electric Vehicle (EV) Charging, which supplies EV charge points in a variety of capacities and functionalities for use at home, work and in public areas. In addition, Alfen offers service, management and maintenance activities, including remote support and monitoring, as well as an in-house technological know-how center.
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