ASML China headwinds vs A.I. tailwinds, High NA dynamics

In this note, we provide additional context on the results and outlook. This with a focus on China, AI and High NA EUV dynamics for both Memory and Logic. As previously stated, CSS expectations for High NA remain too high and are likely to be revised downward. We also provide a framework for the expected 4Q25 bookings. Our analysis indicates a 5.2% y/y headwind in 2026 due to the expected China dynamics. We put this in perspective compared to the tailwind from AI. Our adjustments result in an increase of 7% for our FY27 diluted EPS to € 28.9 per share. We apply a 27x PE multiple to derive our valuation of € 780 per share. Thus we reiterate our Hold recommendation. We prefer ASMi over ASML.