ASML Weaker order intake, disappointing 2Q25 outlook, strong GPm
ASML 1Q25 revenues were in line with expectation and EPS was better than expected. However, the order intake and 2Q25 outlook are below CSS. The EPS outperformance in 1Q25 was driven by the strong GPm. ASML sold more expensive EUV tools at a richer configuration and due to the fact that they met customer-specific performance targets. The outlook for 2025 remains unchanged. If uncertainties continue ASML sees FY25 revenues at the low end of the guided € 30-35bn range. AI demand could drive the high end of the range although we expect FY25 revenues closer to the low end of the range as we expect a larger impact from the uncertainties. We expect a negative market reaction and maintain our Accumulate rating and lower our TP to € 703.ASML Holding provides lithography systems for the semiconductor industry, manufacturing machines that are used in the production of integrated circuits or chips. Co. develops, produces, markets, sells and services advanced semiconductor equipment systems exclusively consisting of lithography systems. Co. sells its products to micro-processor manufacturers and Foundries, NAND-Flash memory and DRAM memory chipmakers. Co.'s products line includes the following: PAS 5000 lithography systems, which Co. no longer manufactures but continues to refurbish; PAS 5500 products; TWINSCAN DUV systems and TWINSCAN EUV systems based on a new platform utilizing the concepts of the TWINSCAN platform.
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