bpost Staci, a make or break story
Running up the 3Q24 results on November 8th, we have adjusted our estimates and incorporated the Staci acquisition in our model. We now estimate the Adj. EBIT for FY24 to come in at the low end of the guided range, as we expect 3Q24 to be a softer quarter than usual driven by the impact of the press concession and though environment in the US. Looking at 2025, we expect some of these headwinds to continue. Additionally, the high transaction multiple that was paid for Staci will significantly increase the leverage from 0.7x to 3.1x, hereby materially increasing the risk profile of the group. After incorporating the transaction in our valuation, we lower our TP from € 5.0 to € 2.6ps and downgrade our rating from Buy to Hold.Bpost is engaged in the provision of national and international mail and parcels services comprising the collection, transport, sorting and distribution of addressed and non-addressed mail, printed documents, newspapers and parcels. In addition, through its subsidiaries and business units, Co. sells a range of other products and services, including postal, parcels, banking and financial products, express delivery services, document management and related activities. Co. operates through two business units: the Mail & Retail Solutions and the Parcels & International.
We are a financial services provider for several types of professional clients, each with distinct needs.
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