Immobel Likely at the trough, but still reliant on bank financing
We revisit our model on Immobel after the FY24 results and the dividend cut. The dividend cut was necessary given the short term debt maturities. We expect 2025 to be a recovery year from the trough in FY24 margins, with slightly lower asset sales versus FY24. A cash recovery from the EUR 18.0m building permit from the Proximus towers could be a short term trigger for the stock. We think it is likely but nothing is confirmed. In FY25, Immobel needs to pay back a EUR 50.0m bond which is covered by the EUR 209.0m net cash position at YE24. The company does continue however to be reliant on the banks to roll its project financing. We cut our target price significantly from EUR 40.0 to EUR 23.0 but repeat our Accumulate rating.Compagnie Immobiliere de Belgique SA (Immobel) is a Belgium-based company active in the real estate development sector. The Company operates in three lines of business in Belgium, Luxembourg and Poland, such as office properties, the residential sector and land banking. Its clients include: the state, the European Union (EU) and/or institutional investors for office complexes; private clients for residential property and land purchases, as well as private clients looking to invest in housing. The Company's main projects in Belgium include Belair, Black Pearl, Parc Seny, Gateway, Bella Vita and Chastre Rue Du Chene. Its main projects in Luxembourg include Westside Village, Green Hill and Galerie Kons. Finally its main projects in Poland include Cedet, CBD One and Okraglak.
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