Umicore FIRST LOOK: 1H24 adj EBITDA -23%, € 1.6bn CAM impairment
1H24 adjusted EBITDA dropped by 24% and was in line with our forecast and slightly below consensus. FY24 adj EBITDA guidance of € 760-800m was maintained. Umicore is revising its CAM ambitions and took a € 1.6bn impairment, reflecting the expectation that EBIT for the Battery Materials will remain negative also in 2025/6. We have already taken a more conservative approach with our FY30 CAM volume estimate at 250 GWh. The low visibility on underlying market trends and technology choices has dented investor confidence, but the current valuation seems attractive as our SOTP suggests that investors are currently attributing only € 1 per share for Battery Materials vs an estimated Capital Employed of c. € 6 ps (post the impairment). We maintain our Accumulate rating and € 19 TP.Umicore is global player in the materials technology and recycling industries. Co. focuses on application areas such as chemistry, materials science, metallurgy and recycling. Co.'s business model comprises four segments: Catalysis, Performance Materials, Energy Materials and Recycling. Catalysis focuses on the abatement of global automotive emissions; Performance Materials focuses on materials that help develop more sophisticated and safer products; Energy Materials produces materials used in the production and storage of clean energy including rechargeable batteries and photovoltaics; and Recycling treats complex waste streams containing precious and other non-ferrous metals.
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