Aussie Equities Month in Review - June 2019
- The RBA cut interest rates for the first time since August 2016 lifting banks and many domestic cyclical names.
- Despite the bearish sentiment by analysts, the market posted another strong gain (3.7%) led by Resources, Healthcare and Financials.
- Global stock markets rallied by 6.6% has markets decided the Fed will provide a safety net for the global slowdown that is unfolding.
- The strong relative performance of Australia during the May global market correction and the solid performance during June (3.7%) means the market is now trading on stretched PE multiples.
- Consistent with the toxic mix of increased downgrade momentum and PE expansion, the volatility of EPS estimates within sectors is relatively large with Financials, Healthcare, Materials, IT and Communication Services all having wider than normal 12-month forward EPS estimates for stocks within sectors.
- The labour force data remains solid, despite weakness in the forward-looking indicators. GDP rose by only 0.4% in Q1, which was slightly less than market expectations (0.5%) and places 4 quarter-ended growth at 1.8%.
- CGF, SGP, CTX, RIO, LNK, AOG and VVR all lowered guidance. Higher global oil prices earlier in the year are squeezing margins amongst the refiners and petrol retailers, while the weak housing market is impacting SGP and AOG.
Caltex Australia is engaged in the purchase, refining, distribution and marketing of petroleum products and the operation of convenience stores throughout Australia. Co. has two segments: Supply and Marketing, which is an integrated transport fuel supply chain which sources refined products on the international market and sells Caltex fuels, lubricants, specialty products and convenience store goods through a network of Caltex, Caltex Woolworths and Ampol branded service stations, as well as through company owned and non-equity resellers and direct sales to corporate customers; and Lytton, which refines crude oil into petrol, diesel, jet fuel and products such as liquid petroleum gas.
Aveo Group is engaged in the development for resale of land and residential, retail, commercial and industrial property, the investment in, and management of, income producing retail, commercial and industrial Property, commercial, industrial and residential building and construction for the Group, and funds and asset management. As of June 30, 2016, Co. operated in two segments: Retirement, which develops and operates retirement villages and aged care facilities to produce rental and other income; and Non-retirement, which develops residential, commercial and retail property.
Challenger is an investment manager with offices in Australia and London. Co.'s operating segments are: Life and Funds Management (FM). The Life segment comprises Challenger Life Company Limited (CLC), a provider of annuities and guaranteed retirement income products, and Accurium Pty Limited, a provider of self-managed superannuation fund actuarial certificates. The FM segment comprises Fidante Partners and Challenger Investment Partners (CIP). Fidante Partners provides administration and distribution services. CIP develops and manages assets under Co.'s brand for CLC and third party institutional investors. The investments managed by CIP are mainly in fixed income and commercial property.
Link Administration Holdings provides technology-enabled outsourced administration services to companies, asset owners, and trustees in Australia. Co. operates through Fund Administration, Corporate Markets, and Information, Digital, and Data Services segment. The Fund Administration segment provides administration services to superannuation funds; Corporate Markets offers a comprehensive and integrated corporate market offering that connects issuers with their stakeholders; and Information, Digital, and Data Services provides core services of development and maintenance of proprietary IT systems and platforms.
Rio Tinto is a mining group based in the United Kingdom and Australia. Co. is engaged in the business of finding, mining and processing mineral resources. Co.'s major products are iron ore, aluminium, copper, diamonds, coal, uranium, gold and industrial minerals (borax, titanium dioxide and salt). Co.'s activities span the world but are strongly represented in Australia and North America with significant businesses in South America, Asia, Europe and Africa. Co.'s operations comprise four principal product groups - Iron Ore, Aluminium, Copper and Diamonds, and Energy & Minerals.
Stockland is engaged in owning, managing and developing shopping centres, logistics centres and business parks, office assets, residential communities, and retirement living villages. As of June 30 2016, Co.'s Commercial Property portfolio included 42 retail centres, 27 properties of logistics and business parks portfolio, and nine assets of office portfolio; and it had approximately 76,800 lots in its residentialportfolio. Also, Co. is a retirement living operator in Australia, with over 9,600 established units across five states and the Australian Capital Territory, which includes a development pipeline of over 3,100 units.
Viva Energy REIT is engaged in owning a portfolio of service station properties, with an portfolio of 425 service stations across all Australian states and territories. Co. is a stapled group consisting of the 'Company' and the 'Trust'. The Trust, through its 100% ownership of VER Trust, owns the portfolio service station properties and receives rent under the leases. Co.'s investment objective is to own a portfolio of strategically located Australian service station properties subject to long-term leases To Viva Energy Australia and other tenents with strong credit portfolios.
About us:
- The business is a Proprietary Limited Australian company that is owned and fully operated by Shane Lee from a small office in Sydney’s CBD.
- Shane worked for 17 years in Sydney-based senior research roles (economist, equity strategist and bond strategist) in global and regional investment banks and a domestic commercial bank prior to starting Macro Strategy Advisors. These roles straddled the asset classes making him uniquely positioned to advise multi-asset investors. He worked for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) for 3 years as a housing, commercial property and equity market analyst and a liquidity forecasting specialist. He worked as a structural engineer in Queensland for 10 years prior to his career at the RBA.
Aim of our business:
- To partner with our clients in their aim to maximise returns. We provide timely, independent and thought-provoking research on thematic macro issues that are impacting or could impact financial markets. We aim to produce research that prompts our clients to question their assumptions.
Services:
- A fortnightly research note.
- Regular presentations and data support delivered by understanding our clients interests and investment process.
- We also in work in confidence to investigate, analyse and report on issues at our clients direction. This work is done on a project-by-project basis.
- As an Australian based business, the main focus is analysing how domestic and global issues impact Australian investors. However, our global and domestic insights are also valued by our offshore clients.
Our Edge:
- Our low cost base relative to our competitors allows us to provide a quality product at a reasonable cost.
- We are fully independent and don’t support a banking function or any third party. We have no interests other than providing our clients with the best possible research.
- Our focus is not point forecasting, but providing rigorous analysis and insight. We don’t routinely focus on the top or bottom 10% of likely outcomes to create a headline.
- Shane’s background in engineering has provided clients with unique insights into global infrastructure and domestic housing issues.
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