Report
Patrick Artus

Is population ageing having the expected effects in Japan?

Japan is the OECD country where ageing is most advanced. What do we usually expect from population ageing? A fall in savings , and asset sales, because pensioners dissave to consume; in Japan, there is a downward trend in household savings and financial investments; Inflation and rapid wage increases, because the working-age population accounts for a decreasing proportion of the total population; in Japan, on the contrary , wages have barely increased and there has been no inflation; An external deficit, due to the reduction in external assets held; in Japan, on the contrary, the external surplus has persisted and there has been an accumulation of external assets. The Japanese reality is therefore very different from what is usually expected from population ageing; the labour market flexibility has led to a slowdown in wages and low inflation; the increase in the public debt is made possible by zero interest rates, themselves generated by low inflation, but it has not led to a shortfall in savings, as corporate savings are very high, and Japan continues to accumulate external assets .
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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