Report
Patrick Artus

The resilience of France’s long-term interest rates to bad news

We compare the fundamental features of the German, French, Spanish and Italian economies that may influence their fiscal solvency and financial stability: Long-term fiscal solvency; The level of potential growth; The situation of the trade balance; The determinants of long-term growth: capital modernisation, labour force and youth skills, corporate investment; The capacity to increase the tax burden or reduce public spending to restore fiscal solvency. We observe that France and Italy rank joint last in this comparison of structural features . And yet France’s long-term interest rate remains close to that of Germany and significantly lower than those of Spain and Italy. Why is France’s long-term interest rate this resilient ? Investor habits? Excess demand for core euro-zone risk-free bonds? Investor perceptions that France’s reforms are going to improve its structural situation?
Provider
Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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