Report
Patrick Artus

The two most serious threats of a crisis in OECD countries

We believe the first serious threat is the skewing of the structure of jobs towards low -productive, low-wage jobs in unsophisticated services. This has resulted in a decline in the quality and the level of sophistication of jobs and wages and in increas ed inequality , which may lead to a social crisis without economic policies being able to react . The second serio us threat is a return of inflation, which would prompt central banks to raise interest rates sharply and lead to an across -the- board debt crisis , given the high level of debt ratios. A return of inflation could be triggered by a change in the functioning of labour markets , with governments coming to power that would skew income distribution in favour of employees . So it has to be pointed out that OECD countries, given the polarisation of labour markets and debt ratios that are sustainable only with low interest rates, are living under the permanent threat of a social and financial crisis. .
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Natixis
Natixis

Based across the world’s leading financial centers, Natixis CIB Research offers an integrated view of the markets. The team provides support to inform Natixis clients’ investment and hedging decisions across all asset classes.

 

Analysts
Patrick Artus

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